JOURNAL OF NATURAL RESOURCES ›› 2013, Vol. 28 ›› Issue (10): 1685-1693.doi: 10.11849/zrzyxb.2013.10.004

• Resources Evaluation • Previous Articles     Next Articles

Synchronous-asynchronous Encounter Probability Analysis on Precipitation in the Haihe River Basin during the Last Five Decades

WANG Zhong-gen1, LUO Yu-zhou1,2, WU Meng-ying1, ZHAO Ling-ling3,1   

  1. 1. Key Laboratory of Water Cycle & Related Land Surface Processes, Institute of Geographic Science and Natural Resources Research, CAS, Beijing 100101, China;
    2. Department of Land, Air and Water Resources, University of California, Davis, CA 95616, USA;
    3. Guangzhou Institute of Geography, Guangzhou 510070, China
  • Received:2011-09-07 Revised:2013-04-11 Online:2013-10-20 Published:2013-10-20
  • Contact: 赵玲玲(1980- ),女,河南濮阳人,博士,主要从事流域水文循环模拟及水资源管理工作。E-mail:linglingzhao@foxmail.com E-mail:linglingzhao@foxmail.com

Abstract: The rapid growths of population and economy in the Haihe River Basin imposed an urgent challenge to the regional sustainability of water resources. Flood utilization has recognized as an effective practice to mitigate the water crisis in this area. The capacity and implementation of flood utilization rely on an analysis of encounter probability of precipitations between different areas of the basin. This paper presents the results of encounter probability analysis on precipitation in the Haihe River Basin. Data analysis was based on monthly precipitation measurements from 39 weather stations in the study area during 1951-2008. The measurements were spatially grouped into four sub-regions by north/south watersheds and their plain/mountain portions, i.e., plain area of north watersheds, mountain area of north watersheds, plain area of south watersheds, and mountain area of south watersheds. Copula function was applied in this study to determine the joint distribution of precipitations between the four sub-regions, and derive the corresponding probabilities of synchronous-asynchronous encounter. Analysis results indicated that all the four sub-regions in the Haihe River Basin were mainly controlled by the same climate pattern. In either north or south watersheds, the synchronous encounter probabilities of precipitation between plain and mountain sub-regions were higher than 20%, while relatively higher probability was observed for the synchronous encounter of lower precipitation (25% and 31% for north and south watersheds, respectively). In addition, the asynchronous probabilities of precipitation between plain and mountain portions within a watershed were less than 6% , indicating a poor complementarity for the diversion of water resources. However, the asynchronous probabilities of precipitation between plain and mountain sub-regions in different watersheds were>9%. From the viewpoint of the whole basin, this study suggested that water diversion between the north and south watersheds may facilitate the flood utilization in the Haihe River Basin.

Key words: flood utilization, precipitation, synchronous-asynchronous encounter probability, Copula function, the Haihe River Basin

CLC Number: 

  • P426.6