JOURNAL OF NATURAL RESOURCES ›› 2013, Vol. 28 ›› Issue (2): 336-348.doi: 10.11849/zrzyxb.2013.02.015

• Resources Research Methods • Previous Articles     Next Articles

Land Use Change Scenarios Simulation in the Middle Reaches of the Heihe River Basin Based on CLUE-S Model —A Case of Ganzhou District of Zhangye City

DAI Sheng-pei1,2, ZHANG Bo1   

  1. 1. College of Geography and Environmental Science, Northwest Normal University, Lanzhou 730070, China;
    2. Institute of Scientific and Technical Information, Chinese Academy of Tropical Agricultural Sciences, Danzhou 571737, China
  • Received:2011-11-19 Revised:2012-03-26 Online:2013-02-20 Published:2013-01-30

Abstract:

Spatial data, like land-use data, have a tendency to be dependent (spatial autocorrelation), which means that when using spatial models, a part of the variance may be explained by neighboring values. Through incorporating components describing the spatial autocorrelation into a classic logistic model, this study sets up a regression model (Autologistic model), and uses the model to simulate and analyze the spatial land use patterns in Ganzhou District of Zhangye City. Then the scenario simulation of the land use/cover change in 2020 in the study area was modeled by CLUE-S (The Conversion of Land Use and its Effects at Small Region Extent) model. The results show that: (1) Through comparison with the classic logistic model without considering the spatial autocorrelation, the Autologistic model showed better goodness of fitting and higher accuracy of fitting. The distribution of land use types of cultivated land, forestland, water area and unused land yielded areas under the ROC curves (AUC) were improved to 0.924, 0.892, 0.766, 0.716 and 0.835 respectively when using autologistic model. (2) The land use type spatial pattern of 2009 was simulated based on the LUCC data of 2005. The Kappa index based on Autologistic model and logistic model is 0.9354 and 0.8880, respectively,which means the accuracy of CLUE-S model was increased by Autologistic model. (3) This paper simulates the land use pattern of 2020 based on the five scenarios indicated that there existed an obvious spatial difference during different scenarios of LUCC model. 1) Under natural growth scenario, the increase of arable land is important for food security, and the expansion of construction land area will promote the economic development, but the woodland and grassland conversion to unused land will exacerbate land degradation and ecological environmental degradation. 2) Under three water resource restriction scenarios, the water resources serve as very important restriction factors for land use/cover change, and improvement of the utilization of water resources is an important measure to improve the ecological environment in arid areas. 3) Under the land use structure optimization scenario, the land use was more rational because of taking into account the needs of food security, ecological protection and economic development in the study area. 4) Under the scenario of economic development, the construction land was rapidly expanded, and food security would be threatened due to occupation of lots of high quality cultivated land and grassland. 5)Under the ecological protection scenario, the regional eco-environmental quality could be improved to a large extent in woodland, grassland and water area.

Key words: land use/cover change, CLUE-S model, scenario simulation, spatial autocorrelation, Heihe River, Ganzhou District

CLC Number: 

  • F301