JOURNAL OF NATURAL RESOURCES ›› 2013, Vol. 28 ›› Issue (2): 253-265.doi: 10.11849/zrzyxb.2013.02.007

• Resources Evaluation • Previous Articles     Next Articles

Spatial-temporal Analysis of Grain Supply and Demand in Rapid Urbanization Regions in Eastern China: A Case Study of Guangdong Province

WU Jian-sheng1,2, JIANG Pei-pei1,2, HUANG Xiu-lan3, PENG Jian1,2, WANG Zheng1,2   

  1. 1. Key Laboratory for Environmental and Urban Sciences, School of Urban Planning & Design, Shenzhen Graduate School, Peking University, Shenzhen 518055, China;
    2. College of Urban and Environmental Sciences, Peking University, Beijing 100871, China;
    3. Shenzhen Graduate School, Peking University, Shenzhen 518055, China
  • Received:2012-04-12 Revised:2012-08-07 Online:2013-02-20 Published:2013-01-30

Abstract:

The balance of grain supply and demand accurately reflects the condition of grain supply and demand. It is of great significance to ensure grain security. Existing studies usually focus on single factor of grain supply and demand, however, the spatial-temporal changes of the relationship between grain supply and demand, especially how urbanization influences them are rarely involved. Basing on the statistic data concerning grain production and population of Guangdong Province from 1994 to 2009, and taking Guangdong Province as the research object, the space differentiation is analyzed through constructing space cluster-diffusion and contribution index and the relationship between urbanization level and the balance of grain supply and demand is analyzed with Granger causality test. Since 1994, the balance of grain supply and demand of Guangdong Province appears rise and diffusion and grain shortages change to common phenomenon. The balance of grain supply and demand of the 21 cities tends to slow down growth and the difference among them appears smaller. The spatial distribution characteristic of cities leading grain needs is cluster→diffusion→cluster, and for cities with high contribution rate is diffusion. The balance of grain supply and demand has significant spatial differences. All the 21 cities can be divided into four types as high growth index with high contribution rate, high growth index with low contribution rate, low growth index with high contribution rate and low growth index with low contribution rate. Granger causality test indicates the improvement of urbanization level can enlarge the per capita share of the balance of grain supply and demand in low urbanization regions.

Key words: the balance of grain supply and demand, space cluster-diffusion, relative growth index, urbanization level, Granger causality test

CLC Number: 

  • F326.11