JOURNAL OF NATURAL RESOURCES ›› 2013, Vol. 28 ›› Issue (2): 199-210.doi: 10.11849/zrzyxb.2013.02.002

• Resources Utilization and Management • Previous Articles     Next Articles

Research on the Dynamics Analysis and Optimization Decision-Making of Water Resources Supply and Demand System in Dongting Lake District

LI Jing-zhi, ZHU Xiang, LI Jing-bao   

  1. College of Resources and Environment Science, Hunan Normal University, Changsha 410081, China
  • Received:2011-12-05 Revised:2012-09-05 Online:2013-02-20 Published:2013-01-30

Abstract:

A water resources supply and demand system dynamic model was built up based on the systematic analysis of characteristics and the inter-relationship of sub-systems of water resources supply and demand system in Dongting Lake District. In modeling, four scenarios, as traditional development model, economic development model, water saving model and concerted development model, were simulated to calculate the changing trends of the balance of water resources supply and demand in Dongting Lake District from 2010 to 2030. The simulation suggests that: 1) The problem of water resources supply and demand is becoming increasingly conspicuous with growing population and fast developed economy. 2) By 2030, the water resources demand will be reaching a total of 159.1×108 m3, the largest gap between supply and demand is 1.9×108 m3 in 2020, and the supply surplus of water resources is 3.6×108 m3 in 2030, water resources supply meets basically the growing demands for socio-economic development, and the greatest comprehensive benefits under concerted development model can be generated, hence it will be the best solution to the development and utilization of water resources in Dongting Lake District. 3) We should enhance our awareness of protection of water resources, strengthen the management on water conservation, optimize economic structure, increase our investment in water conservancy projects and environmental improvement, promote the utilization ratio and the support capabilities of water resources so as to realize the expected goal.

Key words: water resources supply and demand system, optimization decision-making, system dynamics, Dongting Lake District

CLC Number: 

  • TV213.9