JOURNAL OF NATURAL RESOURCES ›› 2012, Vol. 27 ›› Issue (8): 1421-1430.doi: 10.11849/zrzyxb.2012.08.016

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Predictive Validity of Contingent Valuation on Environment and Resource Programs: A Review

XU Li-zhong, ZHONG Man-xiu, HAN Zhi-xia, HU Jun, HUANG Mei-fen, ZHANG Jiang-shan   

  1. Institute of Environmental Science, Fujian Normal University, Fuzhou 350007, China
  • Received:2011-10-29 Revised:2011-12-29 Online:2012-08-20 Published:2012-08-20

Abstract: Contingent valuation (CV) is a mainstream approach to estimating valuation of nonmarket goods, especially of environmental and resource program. As contingent valuation method is on ground of a fiction market, CV validity is ongoing debated, and predictive validity is the core of debasements.CV predictive validity refers to the consistency between people’s sayings and their doings, and Calibration factor (Cf) is used as its characteristic. The closer Cf is to 1, the better CV predictive validity is.In this paper, we retrospected CV predictive validity case studies on environment and resource programs at first. Literature on Cf meta-analysis showed that CV has poor predictive validity, and attribution of the evaluated goods matter.Five factors were summarized as influencing factors of CV predictive validity: without income constraints, warm glow, irrelevant answer, strategic behavior and uncertainty. We deemed these factors could all be attributed to the hypothetical nature of CV deal market. CV hypothetical nature is the primary cause to its poor validity.Three kinds of countermeasures were introduced to improve CV predictive validity: ex ante countermeasures such as cheap talk, ex post countermeasures like follow-up certainty question, and in medias res mitigation countermeasures.We also analyzed the limitation of CV predictive validity expression. Though Cf is a good index of CV validity, good predictive is not equal to scientific. A good Cf does not mean a good CV study; it just represents the market authenticity. At the end of this paper some future research prospect were presented. We call for CV mechanism design research work to improve CV validity fundamentally.

Key words: environment and resource valuation, contingent valuation, predictive validity, calibration factor

CLC Number: 

  • X196