JOURNAL OF NATURAL RESOURCES ›› 2012, Vol. ›› Issue (7): 1176-1185.doi: 10.11849/zrzyxb.2012.07.009

• Special Column:Celebration of the 70th Anniversary of IGSNRR, CAS • Previous Articles     Next Articles

System Dynamic Modeling on the Valuation of Ecosystem Services in Oriental River Prawn (Macrobrachium nipponense) Aquaculture Ponds

YANG Huai-yu, YANG Zheng-yong   

  1. College of Economics and Management, Shanghai Ocean University, Shanghai 201306, China
  • Received:2011-03-23 Revised:2011-05-28 Online:2012-07-20 Published:2012-07-20

Abstract: Valuation on ecosystem services has been paid much more attention by researchers, decision-makers and the public in the last ten years. However, most current studies are still based on static evaluation framework, dynamic assessment has been scarcely used. In this paper, using the principle and method of system dynamics, the internal structure of pond aquaculture system evaluation of oriental river prawn (Macrobrachium nipponense) is analyzed and its causality and flow chart diagram is given. Then, the mathematical model of aquaculture system is developed with differential equations and simulated with computer, the trend of changes in 30 years about the value of food provision, O2-emission, carbon fixation and costs of eutrophication at different aquaculture strategies has been forecasted. The result shows that: 1) Regardless of any strategy to be adopted, if the external environment of a system can not change, the supply of net value per year of ecosystem services will be stable. 2) Non-market value including O2-emission and carbon fixation is an important and stable source of the value of ecosystem services. 3) In a short period, the change of investment on oriental river prawn aquaculture will result in large fluctuations of the market value of the prawn, but in a long time, with the increase of investments, the market value of the prawn will increase, but the rate of the increment will reduce to zero. 4) On the constraint of assumptions and environments, the outcome of simulations basically accords with the result of actual measurement.

Key words: ecosystem services, system dynamics, pond aquaculture, oriental river prawn

CLC Number: 

  • F062.2