JOURNAL OF NATURAL RESOURCES ›› 2012, Vol. ›› Issue (7): 1101-1111.doi: 10.11849/zrzyxb.2012.07.003

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The Impact of Carbon Tax on Non-Fossil Energy Development——Based on the Analysis of Energy-Environment-Economic Model

ZHOU Sheng-l?1,2, SHI Min-jun1,2, LI Na1,2, YUAN Yong-na1,2   

  1. 1. Graduate University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China;
    2. Research Center on Fictitious Economy and Date Science, CAS, Beijing 100190, China
  • Received:2011-07-11 Revised:2011-12-05 Online:2012-07-20 Published:2012-07-20

Abstract: This paper aims to assess the economic and environmental effects of fulfilling China’s unilateral international climate policy and non-fossil fuel pledges for 2020. A Chinese Energy-Environment-Economic Model based on CGE model with detailed electricity technologies for China is used to simulate four different mitigation policies. The results show that with 40 yuan/tCO2 of carbon tax rate and use the carbon tax revenues as government income, household income, reduce output tax rate of most impacted sectors by carbon tax, and as the investment of non-fossil energy, can reduce CO2 emission intensity by 35.87%, 35.80%, 35.07% and 40.13% in 2020 compared to 2005, as well as non-fossil energy consumption will account for 10.99%, 11.00%, 10.75% and 15.82% of the total energy consumption, respectively. The mitigation costs under policy scenarios compared to baseline are rather modest and stay below 0.2% of GDP. If the tax revenue is used to alleviate output tax of the most affected industrial sectors, GDP may even increase. This paper suggests that the policy of combining carbon tax with investing non-fossil energy is a good policy choice, which can not only promote the achievement of carbon intensity target in 2020, but also provide funds for non-fossil energy development to stimulate the realization of the non-fossil fuel consumption goal. In addition, taking into account the co-benefits of lower fossil-fuel use suggests that for most mitigation policies considered these benefits outweigh any losses in GDP. Hence, China may benefit from unilateral climate policy in the short run, independent of possible long-term effects on global warming.

Key words: carbon tax, Chinese Energy-Environment-Economic Model, non-fossil energy investment, mitigation effects

CLC Number: 

  • X196