JOURNAL OF NATURAL RESOURCES ›› 2012, Vol. ›› Issue (5): 757-765.doi: 10.11849/zrzyxb.2012.05.005

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Research on Regional Pressure Index of Cultivated Land Based on System Dynamics—A Case Study of Hubei Province

TAN Shu-kui1, ZHANG Lu1, QI Rui2   

  1. 1. College of Public Administration, Huazhong University of Science and Technology, Wuhan 430074, China;
    2. School of Politics and Law, China University of Geoscience, Wuhan 430074, China
  • Received:2011-04-20 Revised:2011-09-28 Online:2012-05-20 Published:2012-05-20

Abstract: Based on the theory of system theory,this paper uses the system dynamics methods and Vensim software to set up the dynamic model of pressure index of regional cultivated land system. It puts up computer simulation technology to forecast the dynamic changes of cultivated area, grain output, farmland gap, pressure index of cultivated land and so on from 2000 to 2020 in Hubei. Then four different scenarios are set to simulate the dynamic changes of pressure index of cultivated land in Hubei Province. Forecast results show that: 1) Due to the limited grain yield and the technology level, the rising of the population and the per capita share of grain consumption, the farmland gap will constantly increase in the future and the pressure index of cultivated land will constantly rise, and the security of cultivated land will suffer serious threats. 2) It has a positive meaning for the security of cultivated land to actively adjust policy of the cultivated land protection. Then the cultivated land will keep in safe condition over the next 20 years if making sure that the new farmland will keep rising by a rate of over 10% and the reduction of farmland will drop at a rate of 10%.

Key words: land resource management, pressure index of cultivated land, system dynamics, Hubei Province

CLC Number: 

  • F301.21