JOURNAL OF NATURAL RESOURCES ›› 2012, Vol. 27 ›› Issue (3): 468-479.doi: 10.11849/zrzyxb.2012.03.013

• Resources Evaluation • Previous Articles     Next Articles

Evaluate to Water Resources Vulnerability Using SWAT-WEAP Model in Tributary of Xiliaohe River

HAO Lu1, WANG Jing-ai2   

  1. 1. a. Jiangsu Key Lab of Agricultural Meteorology, b. College of Applied Meteorology, Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology, Nanjing 210044, China;
    2. Key Laboratory of Regional Geography, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875,China
  • Received:2011-04-17 Revised:2011-08-25 Online:2012-03-20 Published:2012-03-20

Abstract: The impact of climate change and human activities on the water cycle and water security are the new areas of research directions and a topical issue within international hydrological science in the 21st century. Laohahe River Basin (LRB) was selected as the research area. Used the coupling hydrological model method (SWAT-WEAP), the hydrology simulated by the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) was used to drive Water Evaluation and Planning System (WEAP) for simulating water demand and supply under potential future climate change scenarios based on the framework of "climate change-water resources-environment-society and economy". Water vulnerability is the degree to which a water system is susceptible to, or unable to cope with, adverse effects of climate change, including climate variability and extremes. Water vulnerability is a function of the character, magnitude and rate of climate variation to which a water system is exposed, its sensitivity, and its adaptive capacity. The unmet water demand was applied to the vulnerability index (VI) to quantitatively analyze the water vulnerability to the climate and human activities change. The results show that: 1) predicted temperature increase 2 ℃ together with a 10% reduction in precipitation has a disproportionately greater impact on the vulnerability of water resources, that is, warm and dry weather increased significantly the vulnerability of water resources in LRB. 2) The impact of climate change on irrigation water shortage is greater than on domestic and industrial water shortage. 3) The main problem in the area is caused by number of identified water uses in agriculture sector, which is the driving force in the area. Over irrigation is a strong constraint to the integrated water resource management. The main problem is not the shortage of water but the management of the lake. To develop animal husbandry, change planting structure, and increase the efficiency of water-saving irrigation are the most effective measures to adapt to climate change. 4) In most scenarios, warm and dry climate intensifies and aggravates the impact of human activities on water resources vulnerability. Reservoir can effectively reduce the vulnerability of water resources. However, the effectiveness of such conventional supply-oriented measures weakens due to limited water supply source in dry and warm climate. In short, the impact of climate change on water resources not only depends on the river runoff and groundwater recharge volume, changes in the allocation of time, but also depends on the characteristics of the water system, the pressure changes of water system, and what kind of system management and measures are in place to adapt to climate change. Non-climate change factor may have a greater impact than climate change factor on water resources vulnerability.

Key words: Laohahe River Basin, SWAT-WEAP, unmet water demand, human activities, dry and warm climate

CLC Number: 

  • P467