JOURNAL OF NATURAL RESOURCES ›› 2011, Vol. 26 ›› Issue (4): 683-693.doi: 10.11849/zrzyxb.2011.04.014

• Resources Evaluation • Previous Articles     Next Articles

Nonlinear Characteristics of Runoff Processes of the Manas River in Xinjiang

LING Hong-bo1,2, XU Hai-liang1, ZHANG Qing-qing1,2, SHI Wei1,2   

  1. 1. Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography, Urumqi 830011, China;
    2. Graduate University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China
  • Received:2010-05-31 Revised:2010-09-06 Online:2011-04-29 Published:2011-04-29

Abstract: Based on the monthly stream discharge data of Kenswat Station and the climate data of ten meteorological stations from 1954 to 2007 in the Manas River Basin, the paper studied the nonlinear characteristics of the Manas River runoff and affecting factors by using methods of wavelet transform, chaotic theory and the periodic trend superposition model. The results show that: 1) The primary periods of the annual runoff are respectively 15,18 and 22 years, but are most significant at just 18 years; 2) the annual runoff change of the Manas River presents a complex nonlinearity, and the correlative dimension is 3.3178 which is non-integral, indicating that the variation process of the annual runoff has fractal and chaotic characteristic; 3) based on the periodic trend superposition model,the annual runoff will keep an increasing trend in the coming seven years after 2007; 4) the NAO has the best positive relationships with the runoff in winter, while in summer the relationships are negative and in annual the worst; and 5) the NAO has strong impacted on the climate variations which are caused by the atmospheric circulation in the Manas River Basin, then the runoff of the Manas River is affected.

Key words: hydrology and water resources, nonlinear characteristics, wavelet analysis, Manas River Basin

CLC Number: 

  • P333.1