JOURNAL OF NATURAL RESOURCES ›› 2011, Vol. 26 ›› Issue (1): 22-33.doi: 10.11849/zrzyxb.2011.01.003

• Resources Utilization and Management • Previous Articles     Next Articles

Econometric Analysis of the Dynamic Interaction between Urbanization and Economic Growth and Environmental Pressure: The Case of Ningxia

ZHANG Zi-long1,2,3, CHEN Xing-peng1,3, LU Cheng-peng1,3, GUO Xiao-jia1,3, XUE Bing4   

  1. 1. College of Earth and Environment Sciences, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou 730000, China;
    2. Gund Institute for Ecological Economics, University of Vermont, Burlington, VT 05405, USA;
    3. Institute of Tourism Planning & Design, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou 73000, China;
    4. Institute of Apply Ecology,CAS,Shenyang 110016, China
  • Received:2010-01-24 Revised:2010-08-09 Online:2011-01-30 Published:2011-01-30

Abstract: The paper analyzed the evolutionary trajectory of urbanization ratio and economic growth in Ningxia for the 21 years from 1985-2005. And based on emergy theory,the paper evaluated the environmental pressures which were indicated by Environmental Load Rate(ELR) and Emergy Waste Rate(EWR) and respectively represent environmental pressure related to natural resource input and pollution emission. Secondly,by using the time-serial data of urbanization ratio,and per capital GDP and environmental pressure indicators,we applied the Co-integration Test,Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) and Granger Causality Relationship Test to examine the causal relationship between these variables (urbanization-economic growth and urbanization-environmental pressures). Thirdly,the relative strength of the causality is gauged by Variance Decomposition method which decomposes the total impact of an unanticipated shock to each of the variables beyond the sample period into proportions attributable to shocks in the other variables including its own,in the bivariate system. The results indicate that the urbanization ratio has been increasing constantly,and per capital GDP as well. At the same time,the Environmental pressure has been rising persistently. The findings of econometric analysis indicate that there is no Granger causality between urbanization and economic growth,and the beneficial interaction between them has not formed. For the relationship between urbanization and environmental pressure,temporal causality result was unidirectional causality from urbanization to environmental pressure. But the relative of strength of causality varies from ELR to EWR. Furthermore,it is very difficult to reduce the environmental pressure in the short run for Ningxia.

Key words: urbanization, economic growth, environmental pressure, econometric analysis, Ningxia

CLC Number: 

  • X22