JOURNAL OF NATURAL RESOURCES ›› 2007, Vol. 22 ›› Issue (4): 596-605.doi: 10.11849/zrzyxb.2007.04.010

• Special Column:Celebration of the 70th Anniversary of IGSNRR, CAS • Previous Articles     Next Articles

Prediction on the Dynamics of Water Resource Carrying Capacity in Shandong Province

ZHANG Yan-guang, LIN Zhen-shan, CHEN Ling-ling   

  1. College of Geography Science, Nanjing Normal University, Nanjing 210046, China
  • Received:2006-11-30 Revised:2007-03-12 Online:2007-08-25 Published:2007-08-25

Abstract: Water resource is not only an important material basis of socio-economic development,but also an irreplaceable natural resource.Water resources carrying capacity is an importance part of regional natural resources carrying capacity,which is a restriction factor in the region tightly short of water resources whether can support harmonious devplopment of population,economy and environment.A dynamic model is set up in this paper and the water resources carrying capacity in the next 20 years in Shandong Province is predicted by three kinds of projects.The results indicate that water resources carrying capacity equilibrium indexes are all smaller than a zero during the next 20 years under the three kinds of projects,demonstrating that the water resources carrying capacity responded socio-economic system can’t carry.From project 1,from 2006 to the year 2025,the total water demand of Shandong Province fluctuates between 270×108 and 340×108m3 with an increase of industial water consumption of 300%,but slight change in agricultural water consumption decline.From project 2,the total water demand will have a big fluctuation with an increase of nearly 300% in the next 20 years and the quantity of water resources consumed is too great,consequently,we suggest that,in the next 20 years,Shandong Province should strengthen a macro view to adjust and control the speed of GDP growth,and significantly reduce water resources consumption of unit GDP,which can truly realize science development view and sustainable development.From project 3,the fluctuation of the total water demand isn’t very great in Shandong Province,though its industry develops very fast,the industrial water demand of every increased ten thousand yuan descends greatly,the overall industrial water demand does not increase but decreases,and the agricultural water consumption also decreases.This is just what we expect.

Key words: water resources carrying capacity, dynamics, prediction, Shandong Province

CLC Number: 

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