JOURNAL OF NATURAL RESOURCES ›› 2006, Vol. 21 ›› Issue (3): 465-472.doi: 10.11849/zrzyxb.2006.03.017

• Special Column:Celebration of the 70th Anniversary of IGSNRR, CAS • Previous Articles     Next Articles

Scenario Analysis of Environmental Policy for Combating Desertification in Northern China: A Bio-economic Model Approach

SHI Min-jun1, CHENG Shu-lan1, ZHAO Qiao-yun2   

  1. 1. Graduate University of Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100049,China;
    2. Graduate School of Life and Environmental Science,University of Tsukuba 305-8073,Japan
  • Received:2005-08-30 Revised:2005-11-22 Online:2006-06-25 Published:2006-06-25

Abstract: Poverty alleviation and rangeland conservation are pressing issues facing sustainable development of Northwest China.A linear Bio-economic Model is introduced in this paper to an-alyze the farmer households'land use decision,their income change and driving forces under different land use regulation and other environmental policy scenarios in an agro-pastoral area of Inner Mongolia,China.The simulation results show that introducing sedentary beef cattle livesto-ck,improving credit provision and increasing off-farm employment opportunities might generate a significant increase of household income under alternative land use policy.Land use regulation is needed to conserve local rangeland ecosystem,and keeping grazing pressure at reasonable level and forbidding reclamation is a rational land use policy.To offset decrease of farmers'income with implementing land use regulation,it is absolutely necessary to introduce new technologies and to intensify farming activities.For poor households,they may increase 49%-52% of income by introducing sedentary beef cattle livestock under alternative land use policy scenario.Impro-vement of credit provision is an important subject factor for poor farmers to adopt sedentary beef cattle technologies.Poor households which introduced sedentary beef cattle livestock may increase 51%-416% of income if credit provision to poor farmers was improved.Furthermore,increase in off-farm employment opportunity has positive effect on urban-rural interaction,which may offset the decrease of households'income due to implementation of land use regulation.While regulation to keep grazing pressure at 1 sheep unit/ha was introduced,households' income will decrease 39%-65% compared to present land use policy.Households' income will reach 78%-93% of the present level under the land use regulation if there is an increase in off-farm employment opportunities.Based on the results,it may be concluded that intensification of agriculture and increasing urban-rural interaction is essential for restoration of deteriorated ecosystem and alleviation of poverty in ecological fragile area in northern China.That is to say,environmental policy should be combined with rural development policy,which includes prom-oting new technologies extension,improving credit service and increasing off-farm employment opportunities.

Key words: resource economics, environmental policy, Bio-economic Model, desertification, e-cological restoration, intensification of agriculture, urban-rural interaction