JOURNAL OF NATURAL RESOURCES ›› 2000, Vol. 15 ›› Issue (2): 112-116.doi: 10.11849/zrzyxb.2000.02.003

• Special Column:Celebration of the 70th Anniversary of IGSNRR, CAS • Previous Articles     Next Articles

Analysis on land use dynamics of Shenzhen

BAI Wan qi   

  1. Commission for Integrated Survey of Natural Resources,CAS,Beijing 100101,China
  • Received:1999-03-20 Revised:1999-05-24 Online:2000-06-25 Published:2000-06-25

Abstract: Based on analysis on land use change and driving forces in Shenzhen,this paper divided urban land into industrial land,residential land and service land,and put them in the same framework with arable land and major driving forces,namely industrial investment,population growth,income level and water availability.And then the method of system dynamics was used to quantitatively describe their dynamic relationships.The basic result of system dynamics simulation shows that the long term trend of urban land change is a“S shaped" curve,and the fastest period is between 1980 and 2030.After a relatively long time fluctuation,the proportions of industrial land,residential land and service land in urban land use will become stable from 2020.Arable land has been decreasing continuously and will finally disappear.

Key words: land use change, driving force, system dynamics, Shenzhen