农业文化遗产保护预警评价体系构建与方法研究

doi:10.31497/zrzyxb.20230501

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

农业文化遗产保护预警作为农业文化遗产动态保护、适应性管理的重要内容，对农业文化遗产价值的维护和农业文化遗产地可持续发展具有重要意义。针对当前农业文化遗产保护预警理论研究和实践工作较为滞后的状况，在界定农业文化遗产保护预警概念的基础上，结合农业文化遗产的属性和特点，提出构建农业文化遗产保护预警评价体系的基本原则，基于“压力—状态—响应”模型（PSR）并运用德尔菲法，最终筛选出农业文化遗产保护预警评价的3个一级指标、11个二级指标和21个三级指标。鉴于农业文化遗产保护预警评价具有较大的模糊性，本文给出运用模糊综合评判法进行农业文化遗产保护预警评价的技术路线，依据确定的警度区间将农业文化遗产保护预警级别划分为四个等级（无警、轻警、中警、重警），并综合运用大气污染预警分级和交通信号警示灯原理，分别用蓝色、黄色、橙色、红色直观反映农业文化遗产保护警戒情况。研究结果认为：给出的评价指标体系和评价方法，可以对农业文化遗产保护预警状况进行有效定量评估，进而为建立科学的农业文化遗产保护预警机制提供理论与方法基础。

关键词: 农业文化遗产, 预警评价, 指标体系, 模糊综合评判法, PSR模型

Abstract:

As an important part of dynamic protection and adaptive management of agricultural heritage, the early-warning is of great significance to the maintenance of agricultural heritage values and the sustainable development of agricultural heritage sites. In view of the current situation that the theoretical research and practical work on the early-warning of agricultural heritage protection are lagging behind, on the basis of defining the concept of early-warning of agricultural heritage protection, and conbined with the analysis of attributes and characteristics of agricultural heritage, the paper offers the basic principles of constructing the early-warning evaluation system of agricultural heritage protection. Based on the "Pressure-State-Response" model (PSR) and the Delphi method, we selected three first-grade indicators, 11 second-grade indicators and 21 third-grade indicators of the early-warning evaluation. Because of the fuzziness of early-warning evaluation of agricultural heritage protection, the study puts forward the technical route of early-warning evaluation by using fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method, and divides the early-warning level into four scales (no warning, light warning, medium warning, and severe warning) according to the determined warning degree range, and comprehensively uses the principles of air pollution warning classification and traffic signal warning lights to intuitively reflect the warning situation by blue color, yellow color, orange color and red color. The results show that the given index system and method of evaluation can effectively and quantitatively evaluate the early-warning status of agricultural heritage protection, and thus lay the theoretical and methodological foundations of establishing scientific early-warning system and mechanism for agricultural heritage protection.

Key words: agricultural heritage, early-warning evaluation, index system, fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method, PSR model

崔峰, 王哲政. 农业文化遗产保护预警评价体系构建与方法研究[J]. 自然资源学报, 2023, 38(5): 1119-1134.

CUI Feng, WANG Zhe-zheng. Construction and method of early-warning evaluation system of agricultural heritage protection[J]. JOURNAL OF NATURAL RESOURCES, 2023, 38(5): 1119-1134.

图/表 5

图1

表1

表2

农业文化遗产保护预警评价指标的含义及数据来源

指标	指标含义/计算公式	数据来源
人口增长率/%	一定时期内（通常为一年）农业文化遗产地人口自然变动和迁移变动引起的人口增长比率	统计部门数据
人口密度/(人/km²)	农业文化遗产地单位土地面积居住的人口数量	统计部门数据
GDP增长率/%	农业文化遗产地[(本期GDP-上期GDP)/上期GDP]×100%，按可比价格计算	财政部门统计数据
城镇化率/%	农业文化遗产地非农业人口占总人口的比例	统计部门数据
耕地非农化指数/%^[57]	耕地非农化受自然环境、经济发展和社会活动等多种因素综合作用的影响，表现出不同阶段的时间差异性。该指标用以表征农业文化遗产地在一定时期内耕地非农化变化程度，计算公式为： $S i = F i b - F i a F i a$ [式中：S_i为耕地非农化速度； $F i b$ 为b年份耕地面积（hm²）； $F i a$ 为a年份耕地面积（hm²）]	农业部门统计数据
旅游开发强度/%	农业文化遗产地年均游客数量或旅游用地面积占土地总面积的比例	旅游、土地部门统计数据
自然灾害发生率/%	农业文化遗产地一定时期内天气、水文、地质、气候等灾害的发生频率	气象、地质、水文等部门统计数据
水土流失率/%	农业文化遗产地水土流失面积占土地总面积的比例	土地、环保部门统计数据
废水排放量/万t	农业文化遗产地一定时期内（通常为一年）各类废水（包括农业用水、工业用水、服务业用水等）排放数量	环保部门统计数据
单位耕地化肥农药负荷 /(kg/hm²)	农业文化遗产地化肥农药施用量占耕地面积的比例	农业、环保部门统计数据
景观多样性指数/%^[58]	反映景观复杂程度的指标。景观多样性越强，表示农业文化遗产保护状况越好。计算公式为：H= - $∑ k = 1 n P k l n (P k)$ [式中：P_k为斑块类型k在景观中出现的概率，通常以该类型占有的像元数占景观像元总数的比例来估算；n为景观中斑块类型总数（个）]	遥感解译数据
景观破碎度/%^[14,59]	作为反映景观性质改变的关键性指标，它以平均斑块面积表征，即农业文化遗产地某种景观类型斑块面积与该种景观类型斑块数量的比值。计算公式为：MPS = S_i/N_i [式中：S_i为第i种景观类型斑块总面积（hm²）；N_i为第i种景观类型斑块数目（hm²）]	遥感解译数据
农业生物多样性指数/%^[60,61]	农业文化遗产地生物种群类型数量与其个体数量的比值^①（① 农业生物多样性包括遗传多样性、物种多样性和生态系统多样性三个层次，基于评价主导性和可操作性原则，这里仅侧重对农业物种多样性进行评价。）	农业、林业、水利等部门统计数据
水功能区水质达标率/%	水功能区是为满足水资源合理开发和有效保护需求，在相应水域按其主导功能划定并执行相应质量标准的特定区域。农业文化遗产地水功能区水质达标率是指该遗产地水质达标的水功能区占其全部水功能区的比例	水利部门统计数据
土壤环境质量指数/%^[62]	用以评价农业文化遗产地土壤受污染程度，是表征该遗产地土壤环境质量状况的指标。计算公式为： $P = 1 n ∑ i = 1 n C i S i$ [式中：P为土壤综合污染指数；C_i为土壤中污染物i的实测浓度；S_i为污染物i的评价标准；n为土壤中污染物种数（种）]	环保部门监测、统计数据
有机农产品认证数量/个^{[63⇓⇓-66]}	经获得中国国家认证认可监督管理委员会（CNCA）批准并公布的认证机构认证的有机产品数量，包括植物、畜禽、水产、加工等类型	农业部门统计数据
文化资源保存完好度/%^[67,68]	农业文化遗产地各种农业文化资源（不仅包括珍贵农业物种、传统农业器具等物质文化资源，也包括传统农业生产知识和技术体系、农耕文化等非物质文化资源）总体保存完好程度	专家问卷调查数据
各类保护经费投入额度/万元	农业文化遗产地投入保护农业文化遗产的各类资金数量	财政部门统计数据
吸纳就业人员数量/人	农业文化遗产地直接和间接从事农业文化遗产保护利用相关工作的人员数量	主管部门调查数据
生计多样化指数/种^[69⇓-71]	生计多样化是农户生计策略中的重要内容，其指数高低直接影响农户生计的稳定性。生计多样化指数越高，农户的生计越稳定，规避风险的能力就越强。这里采用每个家庭从事生计活动的种类作为生计多样化指数，即对农户从事的每种生计活动赋值为1，如某农户从事两种生计活动类型，则其多样化指数值为2，依此类推。最后将农业文化遗产地不同农户的生计多样化指数取平均值，则得出该遗产地农户的生计多样化指数	居民问卷调查数据
农民人均纯收入/万元	用以反映农民家庭实际收入水平的综合性指标。计算公式为：(农村居民家庭总收入-家庭经营费用支出-生产性固定资产折旧-税金和上交承包费用-调查补贴)/农村居民家庭常住人口	财政部门统计数据

表2

表3

图2

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目标层	项目层	因素层	指标层	指标性质
农业文化遗产保护预警评价	压力（P）	人口压力	人口增长率/%	+
		人口压力	人口密度/(人/km²)	+
		经济发展压力	GDP增长率/%	+
			城镇化率/%	+
			耕地非农化指数/%	+
			旅游开发强度/%	+
		环境压力	自然灾害发生率/%	+
			水土流失率/%	+
			废水排放量/万t	+
			单位耕地化肥农药负荷/(kg/hm²)	+
	状态（S）	景观格局	景观多样性指数/%	-
		景观格局	景观破碎度/%	+
		生物资源	农业生物多样性指数/%	-
		水体质量	水功能区水质达标率/%	-
		土壤质量	土壤环境质量指数/%	-
		食物安全	有机农产品认证数量/个	-
		知识和文化保存	文化资源保存完好度/%	-
	响应（R）	政策支持	各类保护经费投入额度/万元	-
		社区参与	吸纳就业人员数量/人	-
			生计多样化指数/种	-
			农民人均纯收入/万元	-

数值区间	农业文化遗产保护状态	预警级别	预警颜色	表征
[0, a）	危险状态	重警	红色	农业文化遗产地自然或文化景观结构遭到巨大破坏、功能丧失，生态环境严重受损，生物多样性或文化多样性濒临消失，人地关系严重失调，传统农业系统难以恢复和重建，居民生计受到严重影响，威胁区域可持续发展
[a, b）	较差状态	中警	橙色	农业文化遗产地自然或文化景观结构遭到较大破坏、功能严重退化，生态环境受损较大，生物多样性或文化多样性快速降低，人地关系失调，传统农业系统恢复与重建有较大困难，居民生计受到较大影响，阻碍区域可持续发展
[b, c）	一般状态	轻警	黄色	农业文化遗产地自然或文化景观结构遭到一定破坏、功能有所退化，生态环境质量总体保持在正常水平，保持较好的生物多样性和文化多样性，人地关系基本协调，传统农业系统得以维护，居民生计基本未受影响，区域可持续发展能力尚可
[c, 1]	良好状态	无警	蓝色	农业文化遗产地自然或文化景观结构、功能良好或突出，生态环境质量较高或优良，具有丰富的生物多样性和文化多样性，人地关系协调，传统农业系统得到良好或很好保持与维护，居民生计得到较大或很大改善，区域可持续发展能力较强或突出