自然资源学报 ›› 2021, Vol. 36 ›› Issue (12): 3215-3231.doi: 10.31497/zrzyxb.20211215

• 其他研究论文 • 上一篇    下一篇

干旱区旅游业用水供需适配性评价模型及应用——以中国新疆为例

何昭丽1,2(), 王瑞方3   

  1. 1. 中山大学旅游学院,广州 510175
    2. 南京财经大学工商管理学院,南京 210023
    3. 河海大学商学院,南京 211100
  • 收稿日期:2020-08-03 修回日期:2021-01-11 出版日期:2021-12-28 发布日期:2022-02-28
  • 作者简介:何昭丽(1982- ),女,四川蓬溪人,博士,教授,主要从事旅游经济管理研究。E-mail: hezhaoli1205@126.com
  • 基金资助:
    国家自然科学基金项目(42001156);国家自然科学基金项目(41920104002)

Evaluation model and application of water supply and demand suitability for tourism in arid areas: A case study of Xinjiang

HE Zhao-li1,2(), WANG Rui-fang3   

  1. 1. School of Tourism Management, Sun Yat-Sen University, Guangzhou 510175, China
    2. School of Business Administration, Nanjing University of Finance & Economics, Nanjing 210023, China;
    3. Business School, Hohai University, Nanjing 211100, China
  • Received:2020-08-03 Revised:2021-01-11 Online:2021-12-28 Published:2022-02-28

摘要:

干旱区旅游业在促进区域社会经济发展的同时,也加剧了地区的水资源供需矛盾。针对中国干旱区水资源禀赋及旅游产业的特点,提出干旱区旅游业用水供需适配性评价模型。按照旅游业产值对地区生产总值贡献率、旅游业从业人员占地区就业人员比例、地区水资源禀赋约束等指标,构建综合测算干旱区旅游业用水供给量测算模型;从旅游“食、住、行、游、娱、购”全要素视角,建立由餐饮水足迹、住宿水足迹、能源水足迹、游览水足迹、购物水足迹等账户组成的旅游业用水需求量测算模型;针对“供给”与“需求”水量的数量关系,利用组合分析方法,构建旅游业用水供需适配性程度指数评价模型,并设定评价阈值,测算干旱区旅游业用水供给与需求适配性程度的评价等级。实证分析了新疆2025年旅游业用水供需适配性程度,得出结论:为使旅游业用水维持在“供需基本平衡”或“供需平衡”的状态,新疆旅游业规模最高发展速度应在15%以内,同时新疆政府必须保持社会用水量年均节水率在0.95%及以上;而如某年发生突发性事件,则其之后年份的旅游业规模发展速度可放宽至20%。

关键词: 干旱区旅游业, 用水供给量, 用水需求量, 供需适配性, 预测

Abstract:

While promoting the regional social and economic development, the tourism in arid areas aggravates the contradiction between the supply and demand of water resources. In view of the characteristics of water resource endowment and tourism industry in arid regions of China, this paper puts forward an evaluation model of water supply and demand suitability of tourism industry in arid regions. According to the contribution rate of tourism output to gross domestic product, the proportion of tourism employees in employment, and the constraint of regional water resource endowment, a comprehensive calculation model for the water supply of tourism in arid areas is built; from the perspective of tourism all-elements, a tourism water demand measurement model is established, which is composed of catering, accommodation, energy, visiting, and shopping water accounts, etc.; aiming to set up the quantitative relationship between "supply" and "demand" water quantity, a combinatorial analysis method was used to construct an index evaluation model for the suitability degree of water supply and demand for tourism industry, and an evaluation threshold was set to evaluate the suitability degree of water supply and demand for tourism industry in arid areas. The empirical prediction of the degree of water supply and demand suitability for tourism in Xinjiang in 2025 is made, and the following conclusions are drawn: the maximum development rate of tourism in Xinjiang should be within 15%; at the same time, the Xinjiang government should keep the average annual water-saving rate of social water consumption at or above 0.95%; in the event of an emergency, the development rate of tourism in Xinjiang in subsequent years can be increased to 20%. Only in this way can the tourism industry maintain the state of "basic balance between supply and demand" or even better.

Key words: tourism in arid areas, water supply, water demand, supply and demand adaptability, prediction