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### 中国省域尺度下产业结构多维度特征及演化对碳排放的影响

1. 西北工业大学人文与经法学院,西安 710072
• 收稿日期:2020-06-11 修回日期:2020-10-12 出版日期:2021-12-28 发布日期:2022-02-28
• 作者简介:原嫄（1986- ）,女,陕西西安人,博士,副教授,主要从事区域经济学、气候经济学研究。E-mail: paipaidm@126.com
• 基金资助:
国家自然科学基金项目(41601117);中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金项目(3102018jcc016)

### Influence of multi-dimensional characteristics and evolution of industrial structure on carbon emissionsat provincial scale in China

YUAN Yuan(), ZHOU Jie

1. Northwestern Polytechnical University, School of Humanities, Economics and Law, Xi'an 710072, China
• Received:2020-06-11 Revised:2020-10-12 Online:2021-12-28 Published:2022-02-28

Abstract:

Under China's goal of achieving high-quality development and reaching the peak of carbon emissions before 2030, it has become a hot topic of academic research to find a low-carbon way to ensure economic growth. Based on the panel data of provinces and regions in China from 2005 to 2017, this paper studied the impact of multi-dimensional characteristics and evolution of industrial structure on carbon emissions at the provincial scale by establishing SAR model and PECM with eight economic regions as the study area. The main conclusions are as follows: (1) Regional carbon emissions have significant time delay and spatial spillover effect. (2) From the national perspective, the improvement of industrial structure rationalization level can effectively inhibit carbon emissions, and has negative spatial spillover effect. However, the elevation of industrial structure supererogation level can effectively promote carbon emissions, and has positive spatial spillover effect, which is generally reflected on the left side of the "inverted-U" curve. (3) From the perspective of the eight economic regions, with the development of economy, the evolution of the industrial structure rationalization level can inhibit carbon emissions on the whole, while the evolution of the industrial structure supererogation level showed a trend of obvious "inverted U" features, which has two sides, with the inhibition effect in developed regions and the opposite in underdeveloped regions. The regions in the declining area of the "inverted-U" curve are mostly developed regions. The increasing carbon emissions caused by the elevation of industrial structure supererogation level is still an inherent periodic characteristic of the current development in most Chinese provinces and regions. However, improving the level of industrial structure rationalization will generally push ahead with the peak of carbon emissions and accelerate the process to reach the peak of carbon emissions. This paper argues that the underdeveloped regions should not aim at increasing the share of tertiary industry and blindly elevating industrial structure supererogation level, which is likely to have a negative impact on the economy and the environment. The improvement of industrial structure rationalization level is an effective way to adapt to the current development inertia of most provinces and regions in China, and to curb carbon emissions and reduce the growth of it.