中国省域尺度下产业结构多维度特征及演化对碳排放的影响

doi:10.31497/zrzyxb.20211213

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

在中国转向高质量发展及2030年前达到碳排放峰值的背景下,寻找保证经济增长的低碳减排途径是学界研究的热点。利用中国2005—2017年省域面板数据,建立SAR模型,并按八大经济区分别构建PECM模型,研究中国省域尺度下产业结构多维度特征及演化对碳排放的影响,主要结论如下：（1）中国省域碳排放具有显著的时滞性和空间溢出效应。（2）全国视角下,产业结构合理化水平提升对碳排放呈抑制作用,且存在负向空间溢出效应;而产业结构高度化对碳排放呈促进作用,且存在正向空间溢出效应,总体上处于“倒U型”曲线左侧。（3）八大经济区视角下,随着经济发展水平的提高,产业结构合理化水平提升总体上能够抑制碳排放,而产业结构高度化水平提升则呈现明显的“倒U型”趋势特征,具有两面性,发达地区呈现抑制效应,欠发达地区则相反;当前处于“倒U型”曲线右侧的区域多为发达地区。因此,由产业结构高度化提升导致碳排放量的增加依然属于中国多数省份当前发展的固有阶段性特征,而产业结构合理化提升在总体上能够拉动碳排放峰值前移,促使碳排放早日达峰。欠发达地区不应以增大三产份额为目标,盲目推动产业结构高度化水平提升,这将很有可能对区域经济发展产生负面影响;而产业结构合理化水平提升是既能够适应中国多数省份当前发展惯性,同时又能促进减排或排放降速的有效途径。

关键词: 碳排放, 产业结构, 空间溢出效应, SAR, PECM

Abstract:

Under China's goal of achieving high-quality development and reaching the peak of carbon emissions before 2030, it has become a hot topic of academic research to find a low-carbon way to ensure economic growth. Based on the panel data of provinces and regions in China from 2005 to 2017, this paper studied the impact of multi-dimensional characteristics and evolution of industrial structure on carbon emissions at the provincial scale by establishing SAR model and PECM with eight economic regions as the study area. The main conclusions are as follows: (1) Regional carbon emissions have significant time delay and spatial spillover effect. (2) From the national perspective, the improvement of industrial structure rationalization level can effectively inhibit carbon emissions, and has negative spatial spillover effect. However, the elevation of industrial structure supererogation level can effectively promote carbon emissions, and has positive spatial spillover effect, which is generally reflected on the left side of the "inverted-U" curve. (3) From the perspective of the eight economic regions, with the development of economy, the evolution of the industrial structure rationalization level can inhibit carbon emissions on the whole, while the evolution of the industrial structure supererogation level showed a trend of obvious "inverted U" features, which has two sides, with the inhibition effect in developed regions and the opposite in underdeveloped regions. The regions in the declining area of the "inverted-U" curve are mostly developed regions. The increasing carbon emissions caused by the elevation of industrial structure supererogation level is still an inherent periodic characteristic of the current development in most Chinese provinces and regions. However, improving the level of industrial structure rationalization will generally push ahead with the peak of carbon emissions and accelerate the process to reach the peak of carbon emissions. This paper argues that the underdeveloped regions should not aim at increasing the share of tertiary industry and blindly elevating industrial structure supererogation level, which is likely to have a negative impact on the economy and the environment. The improvement of industrial structure rationalization level is an effective way to adapt to the current development inertia of most provinces and regions in China, and to curb carbon emissions and reduce the growth of it.

Key words: carbon emissions, industrial structure, spatial spillover effect, SAR, PECM

原嫄, 周洁. 中国省域尺度下产业结构多维度特征及演化对碳排放的影响[J]. 自然资源学报, 2021, 36(12): 3186-3202.

YUAN Yuan, ZHOU Jie. Influence of multi-dimensional characteristics and evolution of industrial structure on carbon emissionsat provincial scale in China[J]. JOURNAL OF NATURAL RESOURCES, 2021, 36(12): 3186-3202.

图/表 10

图1

图2

图3

表1

图4

表2

动态面板空间自回归模型估计结果

变量	空间权重矩阵
变量	$W c$	$W d$	$W e$
$C O 2 t - 1$	0.6007911^***	0.6073734^***	0.6074064^***
$C O 2 t - 1$	(19.12)	(19.19)	(19.24)
$WC O 2 t - 1$	-0.1907181^***	-0.2576341^***	-0.2093992^***
$WC O 2 t - 1$	(-2.81)	(-2.88)	(-3.07)
$RIS$	-0.0675303^***	-0.0590554^***	-0.0600919^***
$RIS$	(-3.01)	(-2.77)	(-2.81)
$HIS$	0.0304133^**	0.0308159^***	0.0347163^***
$HIS$	(2.53)	(2.63)	(2.99)
$PRGDP$	0.3882153^***	0.3544842^***	0.3835821^***
$PRGDP$	(7.93)	(7.90)	(7.65)
$RIFE$	-0.4982782^***	-0.4839941^***	-0.498145^***
$RIFE$	(-9.52)	(-9.06)	(-9.57)
$ρ$	0.2124343^***	0.3478152^***	0.2222361^***
$ρ$	(2.94)	(3.67)	(3.22)

表2

表3

产业结构合理化、产业结构高度化、人均实际GDP及能源强度倒数的空间效应分解

空间效应			空间权重矩阵
空间效应			$W c$	$W d$	$W e$
短期	直接效应	$RIS$	-0.0658682^***	-0.0574085^***	-0.0583531^***
		$RIS$	(-3.05)	(-2.80)	(-2.84)
		$HIS$	0.031023^**	0.0315004^***	0.0354437^***
		$HIS$	(2.54)	(2.64)	(2.99)
		$PRGDP$	0.3894745^***	0.3560836^***	0.3855897^***
		$PRGDP$	(8.37)	(8.29)	(8.21)
		$RIFE$	-0.5009467^***	-0.4869121^***	-0.5013356^***
		$RIFE$	(-9.41)	(-8.92)	(-9.50)
	间接效应	$RIS$	-0.0143592^*	-0.0279913^*	-0.0165314^**
		$RIS$	(-1.90)	(-1.81)	(-1.96)
		$HIS$	0.0066964^*	0.0152614^*	0.0101583^**
		$HIS$	(1.78)	(1.82)	(1.93)
		$PRGDP$	0.084118^**	0.171569^***	0.1089939^***
		$PRGDP$	(2.56)	(2.60)	(2.74)
		$RIFE$	-0.1080729^***	-0.234319^***	-0.1419646^***
		$RIFE$	(-2.61)	(-2.65)	(-2.76)
	总效应	$RIS$	-0.0802274^***	-0.0853998^***	-0.0748845^***
		$RIS$	(-2.99)	(-2.62)	(-2.80)
		$HIS$	0.0377195^**	0.0467618^**	0.0456021^***
		$HIS$	(2.52)	(2.52)	(2.88)
		$PRGDP$	0.4735925^***	0.5276525^***	0.4945837^***
		$PRGDP$	(7.93)	(6.57)	(7.72)
		$RIFE$	-0.6090196^***	-0.7212311^***	-0.6433002^***
		$RIFE$	(-8.98)	(-7.02)	(-8.53)
长期	直接效应	$RIS$	-0.1645221^***	-0.146328^***	-0.1480036^***
		$RIS$	(-3.05)	(-2.79)	(-2.83)
		$HIS$	0.0774754^**	0.0802603^***	0.0898743^***
		$HIS$	(2.54)	(2.65)	(2.99)
		$PRGDP$	0.9727502^***	0.907274^***	0.977914^***
		$PRGDP$	(8.32)	(8.39)	(8.14)
		$RIFE$	-1.251145^***	-1.240592^***	-1.27143^***
		$RIFE$	(-9.36)	(-9.07)	(-9.41)
	间接效应	$RIS$	-0.0128476	-0.060631	-0.0094575
		$RIS$	(-0.42)	(-0.64)	(-0.30)
		$HIS$	0.0056925	0.0322842	0.0062692
		$HIS$	(0.40)	(0.68)	(0.33)
		$PRGDP$	0.0718886	0.3605122	0.0611423
		$PRGDP$	(0.43)	(0.73)	(0.31)
		$RIFE$	-0.0918327	-0.4914	-0.0806877
		$RIFE$	(-0.43)	(-0.74)	(-0.32)
	总效应	$RIS$	-0.1773697^***	-0.2069589^*	-0.1574611^**
		$RIS$	(-2.72)	(-1.72)	(-2.55)
		$HIS$	0.0831679^**	0.1125445^*	0.0961435^**
		$HIS$	(2.37)	(1.82)	(2.55)
		$PRGDP$	1.044639^***	1.267786^**	1.039056^***
		$PRGDP$	(5.50)	(2.56)	(5.06)
		$RIFE$	-1.342978^***	-1.731992^**	-1.352118^***
		$RIFE$	(-5.88)	(-2.59)	(-5.20)

表3

表4

八大经济区各变量单位根检验结果

变量	东北综合经济区	北部沿海综合经济区	东部沿海综合经济区	南部沿海经济区
$C O 2$	-1.5222^*	-1.8677^**	-1.6747^**	-4.5090^***
$RIS$	-1.5143^*	-0.3020	-6.3796^***	-0.5105
$HIS$	-2.4747^***	-1.9957^**	-1.9800^**	1.0492
$∆ C O 2$	-1.6921^**	-2.0399^**	-2.6176^***	-7.7476^***
$∆ RIS$	-2.6919^**	-2.0841^**	-4.7813^***	-4.3041^***
$∆ HIS$	-1.7887^**	-3.6881^***	-1.9952^**	-2.3097^**
变量	黄河中游综合经济区	长江中游综合经济区	大西南综合经济区	大西北综合经济区
$C O 2$	-0.4588	-2.1391^**	-1.9181^**	-1.2074
$RIS$	-0.3249	-2.6886^***	-0.9618	-0.4195
$HIS$	-0.7951	1.4885	-0.0213	-1.7462^**
$∆ C O 2$	-2.4311^***	-3.9518^***	-3.9355^***	-3.0832^***
$∆ RIS$	-3.2330^***	-3.4555^***	-2.7051^***	-1.6605^**
$∆ HIS$	-4.3542^***	-1.7629^**	-2.8941^***	-2.5429^***

表4

表5

八大经济区变量间协整关系检验结果

变量	统计量	八大经济区
		东北综合经济区		北部沿海综合经济区		东部沿海综合经济区		南部沿海经济区
		$RIS$	$HIS$	$RIS$	$HIS$	$RIS$	$HIS$	$RIS$	$HIS$
$C O 2$	$Gt$	-12.642^***	-7.550^***	-3.829^***	-3.497^***	-2.716	-4.242^***	-5.082^***	-2.496
	$Ga$	-29.386^***	-1.846	-11.457^*	-2.622	-17.447^*	-0.835	-16.920^*	-14.917
	$Pt$	-6.706^***	-1.716	-2.736	-1.833	-4.137	-0.435	-8.082^***	-5.446 ^**
	$Pa$	-21.807^***	-1.582	-11.845^***	-4.478	-18.743^***	-0.618	-18.137^***	-18.898^***
		$∆ RIS$	$∆ HIS$	$∆ RIS$	$∆ HIS$	$∆ RIS$	$∆ HIS$	$∆ RIS$	$∆ HIS$
$∆ C O 2$	$Gt$	-23.118^***	-7.352^***	-3.872^***	-3.940^***	-3.882^***	-4.583^***	-3.132^***	-18.671^***
	$Ga$	-28.968^***	-18.860^**	-18.388^**	-19.205^**	-30.081^***	-17.925^*	-13.929^**	-24.946^***
	$Pt$	-12.217^***	-7.171^***	-7.093^***	-6.928^***	-5.926^***	-7.479^***	-5.437^***	-24.870^***
	$Pa$	-33.119^***	-23.002^***	-13.308^*	-17.395^***	-21.341^***	-16.435^**	-15.080^***	-42.076^***
		黄河中游综合经济区		长江中游综合经济区		大西南综合经济区		大西北综合经济区
		$RIS$	$HIS$	$RIS$	$HIS$	$RIS$	$HIS$	$RIS$	$HIS$
$C O 2$	$Gt$	-2.100	-3.507^***	-4.534^***	-1.324	-5.507^***	-3.719^***	-3.362^***	-5.592^***
	$Ga$	-15.505	-28.510^***	-20.693^***	0.068	-6.432	-6.199	-7.165	-32.013^***
	$Pt$	-6.791^***	-10.434^***	-9.967^***	-1.708	-4.374	-6.030^*	-7.478^***	-3.229
	$Pa$	-27.563^***	-37.642^***	-28.626^***	-0.618	-12.812^*	-13.770^**	-44.194^***	-7.027
		$∆ RIS$	$∆ HIS$	$∆ RIS$	$∆ HIS$	$∆ RIS$	$∆ HIS$	$∆ RIS$	$∆ HIS$
$∆ C O 2$	$Gt$	-5.073^***	-5.518^***	-7.732^***	-4.691^***	-5.026^***	-14.322^***	-34.636^***	-11.041^***
	$Ga$	-21.298^***	-22.336^***	-15.329^***	-16.687^*	-22.069^***	-16.589^*	-9.230	-18.707^**
	$Pt$	-14.745^***	-19.540^***	-13.659^***	-9.918^***	-9.850^***	-21.114^***	-8.782^***	-12.198^***
	$Pa$	-32.952^***	-41.967^***	-17.705^***	-15.804^**	-24.022^***	-13.974^**	-21.979^***	-22.918^***

表5

表6

八大经济区面板误差修正模型估计结果

模型	变量	八大经济区
		东北综合经济区		北部沿海综合经济区		东部沿海综合经济区
		（16）	（17）	（16）	（17）	（16）	（17）
EC	$∆ RIS$	-0.8352266^***	—		0.7141956	—		1.418453^**	—
	$∆ RIS$	(-7.74)			(0.69)			(2.55)
	$∆ HIS$	—	0.7032208^***		—	-0.3712411^**		—	-0.0739479
	$∆ HIS$		(3.98)			(-2.30)			(-1.18)
SR	$E C$	-0.9154709^***	-0.4995696^*		-0.7170751^***	-0.6829822^***		-1.170526^***	-0.7513924^***
	$E C$	(-6.17)	(-1.79)		(-4.76)	(-2.77)		(-6.32)	(-4.44)
	$∆ 2 RIS$	0.2876388^***	—		-1.393976	—		-0.6456287^***	—
	$∆ 2 RIS$	（3.07)			(-1.29)			(-2.60)
	$∆ 2 HIS$	—	-0.035341		—	0.2869638^**		—	0.191724
	$∆ 2 HIS$		(-0.31)			(2.01)			(1.29)
	$CONS$	0.042695^***	-0.0263^*		0.0056149	0.0662011^**		0.017174^***	0.0202184^***
	$CONS$	(3.63)	(-1.79)		(0.71)	(2.28)		(4.37)	(2.64)
		南部沿海经济区			黄河中游综合经济区			长江中游综合经济区
		（16）	（17）		（16）	（17）		（16）	（17）
EC	$∆ RIS$	-3.440575^**	—		-0.0874441	—		-1.150969^***	—
	$∆ RIS$	(-2.43)			(-1.13)			(-4.82)
	$∆ HIS$	—	-0.1823715		—	0.119836^*		—	-0.4835543^**
	$∆ HIS$		(-0.77)			(1.87)			(-2.32)
SR	$EC$	-0.7301963^***	-0.7457703^***		-0.871561^***	-1.227266^***		-0.7266672^***	-0.7767875^***
	$EC$	(-4.06)	(-4.83)		(-4.55)	(-10.88)		(-3.33)	(-4.51)
	$∆ 2 RIS$	1.163947^*	—		-0.0449735	—		0.195142	—
	$∆ 2 RIS$	(1.71)			(-1.29)			(0.74)
	$∆ 2 HIS$	—	0.078772		—	-0.0210329		—	0.6552004^***
	$∆ 2 HIS$		(0.30）			(-0.33)			(3.28)
	$CONS$	0.0901453^***	0.0611481^***		0.0391312^**	0.0373553^**		0.0395522^***	0.0662441^***
	$CONS$	(3.11)	(3.73)		(2.47)	(2.45)		(2.97)	(4.37)
		大西南综合经济区			大西北综合经济区
		（16）	（17）		（16）	（17）
EC	$∆ RIS$	-0.1048265	—		-0.6629816^**	—
	$∆ RIS$	(-0.38)			(-2.51)
	$∆ HIS$	—	-0.5582461^*		—	0.5383146^***
	$∆ HIS$		(-1.79)			(5.57)
SR	$EC$	-0.5926815^***	-0.8738185^***		-0.7644152^***	-0.9835079^***
	$EC$	(-4.64)	(-5.00)		(-5.00)	(-5.17)
	$∆ 2 RIS$	0.1306946	—		0.1475515	—
	$∆ 2 RIS$	(0.95)			(1.38)
	$∆ 2 HIS$	—	0.05276		—	0.0065048
	$∆ 2 HIS$		(0.19)			(0.04)
	$CONS$	0.0219017	0.0779032^**		0.0725331^***	0.0202531
	$CONS$	(1.57)	(2.03)		(4.74)	(1.20)

表6

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检验方法	2005年	2006年	2007年	2008年	2009年	2010年	2011年
Moran's I	0.202^**	0.214^**	0.222^**	0.233^**	0.188^**	0.221^**	0.229^**
Geary's c	0.453^***	0.514^***	0.561^***	0.557^***	0.633^**	0.562^**	0.568^**
Getis & Ord's G	0.275^***	0.250^***	0.222^***	0.219^***	0.206^***	0.204^***	0.198^***
检验方法	2012年	2013年	2014年	2015年	2016年	2017年
Moran's I	0.218^**	0.208^**	0.204^**	0.211^**	0.205^**	0.203^**
Geary's c	0.579^**	0.575^**	0.586^**	0.592^**	0.593^**	0.582^***
Getis & Ord's G	0.195^***	0.195^***	0.194^***	0.195^***	0.195^***	0.193^***