中部地区乡村生产要素协同转型的时空格局及影响因素——以湖南岳阳为例

doi:10.31497/zrzyxb.20211212

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

乡村生产要素（人—地—资本）协同转型,即劳动力转移、农地流转、资本循环协同演进,对乡村发展至关重要。本文构建了要素协同转型的理论框架,探讨影响因素的作用机制;以湖南岳阳市为例,揭示了要素转型发展水平,探究了要素协同的时空演化;从内生和外源两个维度,探讨了协同水平空间异质性的影响因素。基于要素转型会由“失配”转向“协同”的理论假说,实证发现：劳动力转移水平远高于农地流转和资本循环,三者空间分异显著;要素协同程度不高但在增强,空间集聚明显;坡度、耕地资源禀赋、距县城的距离、政府农业农村投入分别是关键的内生与外源解释因素,除距县城距离仅有正向影响外,其余因素正、负向影响并存。政策举措应因地制宜。

关键词: 乡村转型, 生产要素, 协同转型, 时空格局, 影响因素, 中部地区

Abstract:

The collaborative transformation of rural production factors, namely the coordination among flow of labor, farmland transfer and capital circulation, is crucial for rural development. This paper constructs a theoretical framework of the collaborative transformation among the three factors and the impacts of some local influencing factors. With the case of Yueyang city, Hunan province, we reveal the transformation levels of each production factor, explore the spatio-temporal patterns of collaborative transformation, and examine the endogenous and exogenous influencing factors underlying the spatial heterogeneity of the collaborative transformation levels. Based on the theoretical hypothesis that transformation of the three factors will be upgraded from "mismatch" to "collaboration", empirical findings are as follows: the transformation level of labor is much higher than that of farmland and capital; the spatial patterns of the levels are different; the collaborative level of factor transformation is not high, but a trend of temporal uplifting and spatial aggregation is apparently shown; slope, cultivated land resource endowment, distance from the county seat and government investment in rural and agricultural development are the key endogenous and exogenous factors respectively. Distance from the county seat has positive effect, while other factors have both positive and negative effects. Policy implications are proposed according to the collaborative levels and local conditions.

Key words: rural transformation, production factor, collaborative transformation, spatio-temporal pattern, influencing factor, Central China

赵宁宁, 郭炎, 李志刚, 许红梅. 中部地区乡村生产要素协同转型的时空格局及影响因素——以湖南岳阳为例[J]. 自然资源学报, 2021, 36(12): 3170-3185.

ZHAO Ning-ning, GUO Yan, LI Zhi-gang, XU Hong-mei. Spatio-temporal patterns and influencing factors of the collaborative transformation of rural production factors in Central China: A case study of Yueyang, Hunan province[J]. JOURNAL OF NATURAL RESOURCES, 2021, 36(12): 3170-3185.

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要素层	表达层	指标层
人	外出劳动力占比	外出务工劳动力/总农村劳动力
人	本地非农劳动力占比	(本地务工劳动力+兼业劳动力)/总农村劳动力
地	农地流转率	农地流转总面积/总耕地面积
	流转规模分布占比	经营耕地0~30亩经营主体数/总经营主体数
		经营耕地30~100亩经营主体数/总经营主体数
		经营耕地100亩以上经营主体数/总经营主体数
资本	经营主体经营性收入占比	经营主体经营性总收入/农村经济总收入
	经营主体流转耕地面积占比	农户流转的耕地面积/总流转面积
		专业合作社流转的耕地面积/总流转面积
		企业流转的耕地面积/总流转面积
		其他主体流转的耕地面积/总流转面积

年份	Global Moran's I	E(I)	Z(I)
2012	0.23	-0.01	3.49^***
2013	0.28	-0.01	4.13^***
2014	0.28	-0.01	4.14^***
2015	0.25	-0.01	3.80^***
2016	0.26	-0.01	3.91^***

维度	类别	影响因素	P值	VIF
内生维度	自然条件	平均高程	0.03	6.84
	自然条件	平均坡度	0.01	7.12
	（耕地）资源禀赋	旱地面积占比	0.03	6.14
		水田面积占比	0.13	2.90
		水田与旱地面积之比	0.11	2.06
外源维度	区位条件	距省城中心距离	0.30	3.20
		距市区中心距离	0.67	3.79
		距县城中心距离	0.00	2.00
	政府农业农村投入	沟渠面积占比	0.00	5.96
		公路面积占比	0.51	1.70
		公益性基础设施建设投入	0.19	1.31
		政府农业补贴	0.20	1.15
	镇街经济、社会发展水平	工业企业个数	0.35	1.97
		人均GDP	0.51	1.56
		城镇化率	0.83	1.90
		二三产业从业人员占比	0.82	1.41
		高中及以上学历占比	0.34	1.56

影响因素类别	影响因素	绝对值的平均值	正值/%	负值/%
自然条件	平均坡度	0.16	5.56	94.44
耕地资源禀赋	旱地面积占比	0.32	67.59	32.41
耕地资源禀赋	水田与旱地面积之比	0.24	87.04	12.96
区位条件	距县城距离	0.55	100	0
政府农业农村投入	沟渠面积占比	0.30	36.11	63.89
政府农业农村投入	政府农业补贴	0.16	80.56	19.44