耕地转出对农民家庭贫困脆弱性的影响及其区域差异分析

doi:10.31497/zrzyxb.20211207

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

关注耕地转出行为对农户贫困脆弱性的影响,对于农民家庭的持久脱贫及农村反贫困政策的制定意义重大。基于CFPS两期全国整合样本的面板数据,在对农户贫困脆弱性进行测算的基础上,运用倍差法、OLS模型及倾向得分匹配倍差法,实证检验耕地转出对农民家庭贫困脆弱性的影响及其区域差异。结果表明：（1）耕地转出行为的发生降低了农户的贫困脆弱性,是一种有效的扶贫手段,在帮助部分农户抵御收入风险上起到了积极作用;（2）耕地转出规模的扩大并未显著改善农户的贫困脆弱性状况;（3）控制变量也对农户贫困脆弱性产生了不同程度的影响,其中户主性别、户主年龄和家庭住房净资产显著正向影响农户的贫困脆弱性水平,而户主受教育程度、家庭劳动力数、健康状况、现金和存款数及当地经济发展水平等变量显著负向影响农户的贫困脆弱性水平;（4）耕地转出行为对农民家庭贫困脆弱性的影响呈现出一定的区域差异性,对东、中和东北地区农户贫困脆弱性的降低起到了显著促进作用,但对西部地区农户的减贫作用并不明显。

关键词: 农户, 耕地转出, 贫困脆弱性, DID模型

Abstract:

Paying attention to the impact of land renting-out on the households' poverty vulnerability is of great significance for the long-term poverty alleviation of farmers and the formulation of rural anti-poverty policies. Based on the reasonable selection of control variables and the measurement of households' poverty vulnerability, this article employs DID, OLS and PSM-DID models to analyze the influence and regional differences of land renting-out on households' poverty vulnerability using the two-panel data of CFPS (2014 and 2018). The results reveal that: (1) The land renting-out behavior can significantly reduce the poverty vulnerability of households, which is considered as an effective means of poverty alleviation and plays a positive role in helping some households to resist income risks. (2) Variables such as gender, age and education level of households' head, labor force, health status of family members, net assets of family housing, cash and deposits, and local economic development levels also have a different impact on households' poverty vulnerability. (3) Further research shows that the larger the land renting-out rate of cultivated land is, the more beneficial it is to reduce the households' poverty vulnerability, but this result has not passed the significance test, and the interpretation of this research conclusion still needs further research. (4) In addition, the impact of land renting-out on the households' poverty vulnerability shows a certain regional difference. Among them, it has played a significant role in reducing the poverty vulnerability of farmers in the eastern, central and northeast regions, but it is not obvious in the western region. In order to ensure the robustness of the research conclusions, the estimation results are tested by various matching methods, and show that the conclusions in this paper are stable and reliable. It is suggested that in the future, under the premise of respecting the wishes of farmers, the farmland transfer market should be further improved, and differentiated guidance policies should be provided according to the actual needs of households. At the same time, the support of the family education, finance, and social security should be increased for the land renting-out family, thereby promoting the sustainable development of their livelihoods.

Key words: rural household, land renting-out, poverty vulnerability, DID model

赵立娟, 康晓虹, 史俊宏. 耕地转出对农民家庭贫困脆弱性的影响及其区域差异分析[J]. 自然资源学报, 2021, 36(12): 3099-3113.

ZHAO Li-juan, KANG Xiao-hong, SHI Jun-hong. Impact of land renting-out on the households' poverty vulnerability and its regional differences[J]. JOURNAL OF NATURAL RESOURCES, 2021, 36(12): 3099-3113.

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变量名称	定义	均值	标准差
被解释变量
贫困脆弱性指数	VEP方法计算所得	0.35	0.29
核心解释变量
耕地转出与否	是=1,否=0	0.35	0.26
耕地转出规模/%	出租耕地收入占家庭种植业纯收入比例	0.21	0.27
控制变量
户主性别	男性=1,女性=0	0.61	0.49
户主年龄/岁	年龄	51.89	12.01
户主文化程度/年	户主受教育年限	6.89	3.12
家庭劳动力数/人	家庭总的劳动力数量	2.34	0.87
健康状况	健康赋值：不健康<1—2—3—4—5>非常健康	3.86	1.48
村干部	您家中是否有村干部（党员）：有=1,无=0	0.09	0.25
非农活动	家庭是否进行非农活动：是=1,否=0	0.62	0.49
家庭住房净资产/万元	<5=1,≥5~10=2,≥10~20=3,≥20~50=4,≥50~100=5,≥100=6	3.51	3.89
农业机械价值/万元	<0.1=1,≥0.1~0.5=2,≥0.5~1=3,≥1~3=4,≥3~5=5,≥5=6	2.09	1.38
耐用消费品/万元	<0.5=1,≥0.5~1=2,≥1~3=3,≥3~5=4,≥5~10=5,≥10=6	3.31	1.75
家庭现金和存款/万元	<0.5=1,≥0.5~1=2,≥1~3=3,≥3~5=4,≥5~10=5,≥10=6	3.47	1.41
县城距离/km	到所属县城的距离	17.57	15.38
当地经济发展水平/万元	所在村户均年收入	4.51	1.97

贫困脆弱性	对照组	实验组	DIFF
转出前（2014年）	0.435	0.432	-0.003
转出后（2018年）	0.358	0.350	-0.008
DIFF	-0.077	-0.082	-0.005
脆弱性家庭比例	对照组	实验组	DIFF
转出前（2014年）	0.414	0.407	-0.007
转出后（2018年）	0.239	0.228	-0.011
DIFF	-0.175	-0.179	-0.004

变量	（1）			（2）			（3）
变量	系数	标准差	t值	系数	标准差	t值	系数	标准差	t值
实验期（Dt）	-0.169^***	0.008	-23.96	-0.138^***	0.008	-17.01
实验组（Du）	-0.042^***	0.009	-5.13	-0.039^***	0.010	-3.95
DID估计值（Dt×Du）	-0.047^***	0.014	-4.43	-0.055^***	0.014	-5.61
耕地转出规模							-0.013	0.015	-0.64
户主性别				0.019^***	0.008	3.99	0.022	0.016	-1.18
户主年龄				0.000^*	0.003	1.06	0.002^**	0.001	2.37
户主文化程度				-0.009^***	0.002	-5.33	-0.005	0.003	-1.55
家庭劳动力数				-0.006^**	0.002	2.61	-0.019^**	0.009	-2.29
健康状况				-0.001	0.003	-0.29	-0.023^***	0.004	-3.69
村干部				-0.005	0.010	-0.46	-0.030	0.011	-0.97
非农活动				-0.010	0.007	-0.85	-0.008	0.015	-0.55
家庭住房净资产				0.007^***	0.004	3.19	0.002	0.007	0.39
农业机械价值				0.003	0.003	0.12	0.003	0.013	0.17
耐用消费品				-0.019^***	0.004	-5.91	-0.025^***	0.005	-4.08
家庭现金和存款				-0.016^***	0.003	-6.76	-0.019^***	0.006	-3.36
县城距离				0.000	0.001	0.37	0.000	0.002	0.91
当地经济发展水平				-0.016^***	0.002	-6.01	-0.018^***	0.004	-5.07
常数项	0.693^***	0.005	121.33	0.657^***	0.024	21.54	0.872^***	0.026	10.45
Prob>F	0.0000			0.0000			0.0000
R²	0.1130			0.1495			0.1771

变量	核匹配法	半径匹配	一对一近邻匹配	局部线性回归匹配
实验期（Dt）	-0.118^* （0.011）	-0.120^* （0.010）	-0.124^* （0.011）	-0.123^* （0.012）
实验组（Du）	-0.036 （0.023）	-0.042 （0.020）	-0.045 （0.021）	-0.043 （0.018）
DID估计值（Du×Dt）	-0.048^** （0.015）	-0.049^** （0.015）	-0.045^** （0.012）	-0.047^** （0.013）
R²	0.1029	0.0975	0.0329	0.1011

变量	东部	中部	西部	东北
实验期（Dt）	-0.133^*** （0.017）	-0.204^*** （0.016）	-0.137^*** （0.015）	-0.168^*** （0.020）
实验组（Du）	-0.029 （0.019）	-0.109^*** （0.018）	-0.038^** （0.018）	-0.010 （0.029）
DID估计值（Du×Dt）	-0.108^*** （0.026）	-0.057^* （0.025）	-0.012 （0.024）	-0.061^** （0.041）
R²	0.1014	0.1951	0.1885	0.1482