全球二氧化碳浓度非均匀分布条件下碳排放与升温关系的统计分析

doi:10.31497/zrzyxb.20210410

自然资源学报 ›› 2021, Vol. 36 ›› Issue (4): 934-947.doi: 10.31497/zrzyxb.20210410

全球二氧化碳浓度非均匀分布条件下碳排放与升温关系的统计分析

邓祥征¹^,²^,³(), 蒋思坚¹^,²^,³, 刘冰⁴, 王泽昊⁴, 邵卿⁴

1.中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所,中国科学院陆地表层格局与模拟重点实验室,北京 100101
2.中国科学院大学,北京 100049
3.中国科学院农业政策研究中心,北京 100101
4.山东科技大学测绘科学与工程学院,青岛 266590

收稿日期:2019-12-04 修回日期:2020-03-02 出版日期:2021-04-28 发布日期:2021-06-28
作者简介:邓祥征（1971- ）,男,山东日照人,博士,研究员,博士生导师,研究方向为土地科学与自然资源管理、区域环境变化、发展地理学。E-mail: dengxz@igsnrr.ac.cn
基金资助:
国家重点研发计划项目(2016YFA0602500)

Statistical analysis of the relationship between carbon emissions and temperature rise with the spatially heterogenous distribution of carbon dioxide concentration

DENG Xiang-zheng¹^,²^,³(), JIANG Si-jian¹^,²^,³, LIU Bing⁴, WANG Ze-hao⁴, SHAO Qing⁴

1. Key Laboratory of Land Surface Pattern and Simulation, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, CAS, Beijing 100101, China
2. University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China
3. Center of Chinese Agriculture Policy, CAS, Beijing 100101, China
4. School of Surveying and Mapping Science and Engineering, Shandong University of Science and Technology, Qingdao 266590, Shandong, China

Received:2019-12-04 Revised:2020-03-02 Online:2021-04-28 Published:2021-06-28

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

为定量评估全球二氧化碳浓度非均匀分布条件下碳排放与升温的关系,采用空间自相关分析与空间联立方程组模型,基于1度、2度与3度空间分辨率的全球二氧化碳浓度,碳排放与近地面气温等格点数据,揭示了2003—2015年全球二氧化碳浓度的空间分布聚集特征并估计了碳排放对升温的影响系数。结果发现：二氧化碳浓度在空间上表现为北半球高浓度值聚集与南半球低浓度值聚集的分布型。利用二氧化碳浓度非均匀分布的参数条件对碳排放与升温影响的估计结果表明,代入二氧化碳浓度非均匀分布这一参数会小幅拉低碳排放对升温影响的估计结果。研究表明,全球二氧化碳浓度非均匀分布是当前评估碳排放升温影响亟待引入的参数;同时由于估计结果的空间尺度效应的存在,相关参数的空间范围与分辨率的选择也需要关注。

关键词: 二氧化碳浓度, 二氧化碳非均匀分布, 碳排放, 经济影响, 社会代价

Abstract:

In order to quantify the relationship between carbon emissions and temperature rise with the spatially heterogenous distribution of carbon dioxide concentration, this paper used the spatial autocorrelation analysis and the spatial simultaneous equations model to reveal the spatial distribution and aggregation characteristics of global carbon dioxide concentration during 2003-2015 and estimated the impact of carbon emissions on temperature rise based on the grid data of global carbon dioxide concentration, carbon emissions and temperature. The results indicate that carbon dioxide concentration has high value in the northern hemisphere and low value in the southern hemisphere. Spatially heterogenous distribution of carbon dioxide concentration will slightly decrease the estimation results of the impact of carbon emissions on temperature rise. The results show that the spatially heterogenous distribution is an important parameter that should be introduced into the assessment of global warming. At the same time, due to the existence of the spatial scale effect, the selection of spatial range and resolution deserves more attention.

Key words: carbon dioxide concentration, spatially heterogenous distribution of carbon dioxide, carbon emissions, economic impact, social cost

邓祥征, 蒋思坚, 刘冰, 王泽昊, 邵卿. 全球二氧化碳浓度非均匀分布条件下碳排放与升温关系的统计分析[J]. 自然资源学报, 2021, 36(4): 934-947.

DENG Xiang-zheng, JIANG Si-jian, LIU Bing, WANG Ze-hao, SHAO Qing. Statistical analysis of the relationship between carbon emissions and temperature rise with the spatially heterogenous distribution of carbon dioxide concentration[J]. JOURNAL OF NATURAL RESOURCES, 2021, 36(4): 934-947.

图/表 9

表1

图1

图2

图3

图4

图5

表2

联立方程组模型计量结果

变量		模型组一：不考虑CO₂浓度			模型组二：考虑CO₂浓度
变量		OLS	2SLS	3SLS	GSLS	GS2SLS	GS3SLS
dT	lnE	0.0182^***	0.191^***	0.192^***	0.0158^***	0.186^***	0.187^***
		(0.0030)	(0.0065)	(0.0065)	(0.0030)	(0.0065)	(0.0065)
	lnCO₂				16.95^***	15.59^***	15.80^***
					(1.082)	(1.092)	(1.092)
	WlnCO₂				0.372^***	0.268^***	0.255^***
					(0.0401)	(0.0406)	(0.0406)
	lnrain	-0.0075	0.134^***	0.0238^*	-0.0058	0.130^***	0.0242^*
		(0.0135)	(0.0143)	(0.0142)	(0.0135)	(0.0143)	(0.0142)
	lnrain²	-0.0003	0.0045^***	0.0025^***	0.0001	0.0041^***	0.0027^***
		(0.0010)	(0.0010)	(0.0010)	(0.0010)	(0.0010)	(0.0010)
	Longitude	0.0011^***	-0.0005^*	-0.0004	0.001^***	-0.0002^**	-0.0004
		(0.0002)	(0.0002)	(0.0002)	(0.0002)	(0.0002)	(0.0002)
	Latitude	0.0032^***	0.0115^***	0.0136^***	-0.0019^**	0.0076^***	0.0097^***
		(0.0007)	(0.0007)	(0.0007)	(0.0008)	(0.0009)	(0.0009)
	DEM	-0.0628^***	-0.0185	-0.0107	-0.0579^**	-0.0151	-0.0133
		(0.0243)	(0.0245)	(0.0245)	(0.0243)	(0.0245)	(0.0245)
	常数项	0.260^***	0.582^***	-0.166^**	-102.6^***	-93.69^***	-95.59^***
		(0.0733)	(0.0747)	(0.0741)	(6.435)	(6.494)	(6.494)
	Wald chi²	14.0^***	153.4^***	1076.4^***	53.7^***	152.7^***	1369.9^***
	R²	0.040	0.039	0.039	0.021	0.021	0.020
lnE	lnT		96.72^***	97.33^***		96.27^***	96.85^***
			(0.495)	(0.494)		(0.496)	(0.494)
	lnCO₂					3.271^***	3.181^***
						(0.738)	(0.738)
	WlnCO₂					0.523^***	0.522^***
						(0.0293)	(0.0293)
	lnPOP		0.0599^***	0.0588^***		0.0603^***	0.0592^***
			(0.0049)	(0.0048)		(0.00486)	(0.00481)
	lnPOP²		0.0033^***	0.0033^***		0.00334^***	0.00328^***
			(0.0003)	(0.0003)		(0.0003)	(0.0003)
变量		模型组一：不考虑CO₂浓度			模型组二：考虑CO₂浓度
变量		OLS	2SLS	3SLS	GSLS	GS2SLS	GS3SLS
lnE	lnpGDP		0.858^***	0.881^***		0.757^***	0.773^***
			(0.0146)	(0.0145)		(0.0156)	(0.0155)
	lnpGDP²		0.0280^***	0.0292^***		0.0237^***	0.0246^***
			(0.0007)	(0.0007)		(0.0007)	(0.0007)
	Longitude		0.0103^***	0.0104^***		0.010^***	0.010^***
			(0.0002)	(0.0002)		(0.0002)	(0.0002)
	Latitude		0.0559^***	0.0563^***		0.0508^***	0.0513^***
			(0.0007)	(0.0007)		(0.0008)	(0.0008)
	DEM		0.535^***	0.554^***		0.517^***	0.534^***
			(0.0186)	(0.0185)		(0.0186)	(0.0185)
	常数项		-771.4^***	-776.2^***		-790.0^***	-794.2^***
			(3.960)	(3.949)		(5.763)	(5.757)
	Wald chi²		9553.6^***	76419.8^***		7689.6^***	76892.8^***
	R²		0.275	0.275		0.276	0.276
	样本量/个	202332	202332	202332	202332	202332	202332

表2

图6

表3

不同分辨率数据二氧化碳浓度与二氧化碳排放对升温影响替代弹性

数据分辨率	$∆$ E%/ $∆$ CO₂%
数据分辨率	GS2SLS	GS3SLS
1度	83.82	85.03
2度	164.63	172.71
3度	179.57	181.23

表3

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变量	样本数/个	说明及单位	平均值	标准差	最小值	最大值
CO₂	219193	陆地二氧化碳浓度/ppm	383.63	7.68	367.87	401.32
rain	219193	陆地降水量/mm	60.31	62.20	0	885.05
pGDP	219193	人均GDP/(万元/人)	2.59	2.93	0	19.94
POP	219193	人口数/万人	28.469	108.05	0	3260.71
T	219193	陆地近地面气温/(0.1 ℃)	91.01	147.74	-277.42	316.17
E	219193	陆地二氧化碳排放/(t/km²)	199.42	2122.87	0	176601.60
DEM	219193	陆表地海拔高度/km	0.60	0.83	-0.1575	6.21

全球二氧化碳浓度非均匀分布条件下碳排放与升温关系的统计分析

Statistical analysis of the relationship between carbon emissions and temperature rise with the spatially heterogenous distribution of carbon dioxide concentration

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