巴黎协定下中国碳排放权省域分配及减排潜力评估研究

doi:10.31497/zrzyxb.20210409

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

通过构建碳排放权区域分配模型完成了省域分配,在此基础上与当前各地实际碳排放量进行比对,明晰了各自初始空间余额;而后对碳排放权欠缺地区的碳减排潜力进行了综合评估。研究结果表明：（1）我国30个省区碳排放权分配存在较大差异,其中云南配额最高,占比高达10.53%;宁夏配额最少,占比仅为0.28%。（2）全国有14个省区碳排放权初始空间余额表现出盈余状态,根据成因差异可大致分为“低排放、高配额”“低排放、低配额”以及“高排放、高配额”等三种类型;其他16个地区均表现出一定程度的欠缺,结合数值差异可划分为以江苏等4地为代表的轻度欠缺地区,以天津等7地为代表的中度欠缺地区,以及以辽宁等5地为代表的重度欠缺地区。（3）浙江、天津、山东等3地目前所具备的碳减排潜力要明显高于其他地区,而各地区的碳减排潜力水平虽与其碳排放权欠缺量表现出了一定趋同性但并非完全一致。

关键词: 碳排放, 农业碳排放, 碳排放权, 省域分配, 减排潜力

Abstract:

In this paper, the provincial distribution is completed by constructing a regional distribution model of carbon emission rights. On this basis, the initial space balance is clarified by comparing with the actual carbon emissions in various places. Then, the potential of carbon emission reduction in regions lacking carbon emission rights is comprehensively evaluated. The results show that: (1) The distribution of carbon emission rights in 30 provinces of China is quite different, among which Yunnan has the highest quota, accounting for 10.53%, while Ningxia has the least quota, accounting for only 0.28%. (2) The initial space balance of carbon emission rights in 14 provinces of China shows a surplus state, which can be divided into three types according to the difference of causes, namely "low emission, high quota", "low emission, low quota" and "high emission, high quota". All the other 16 provinces show some degree of deficiency. Combined with the numerical differences, they can be identified into three types: 4 provinces with slight deficiency represented by Jiangsu, 7 with moderate deficiency represented by Tianjin, and 5 with severe deficiency represented by Liaoning. (3) Currently, Zhejiang, Tianjin and Shandong have significantly higher carbon emission reduction potential than other regions, while the carbon emission reduction potential level of each region shows certain convergence but is not completely consistent with a lack of carbon emission rights.

Key words: carbon emissions, agricultural carbon emissions, carbon emission rights, provincial distribution, emission reduction potential

田云, 林子娟. 巴黎协定下中国碳排放权省域分配及减排潜力评估研究[J]. 自然资源学报, 2021, 36(4): 921-933.

TIAN Yun, LIN Zi-juan. Provincial distribution of China's carbon emission rights and assessment of its emission reduction potential under the Paris Agreement[J]. JOURNAL OF NATURAL RESOURCES, 2021, 36(4): 921-933.

图/表 4

表1

表2

表3

2017年我国30个省级行政区碳排放量、碳排放权分配额及其初始余额

地区		碳排放权分配额			碳排放量			碳排放权初始空间余额
组别	地区	数量/10⁸ t	占比/%	排名	数量/10⁸ t	占比/%	排名	数量/10⁸ t	排名	类型
I区组8.92%	北京	7.885	5.85	6	0.805	0.60	28	7.080	4	充分盈余
I区组8.92%	上海	4.143	3.07	13	2.612	1.94	22	1.531	9	中度盈余
Ⅱ区组 15.00%	河北	3.835	2.84	16	8.747	6.48	3	-4.912	27	重度欠缺
	浙江	4.050	3.00	14	4.586	3.40	11	-0.535	17	轻度欠缺
	安徽	4.514	3.35	12	4.544	3.37	12	-0.030	15	轻度欠缺
	湖北	6.098	4.52	8	4.163	3.09	13	1.935	7	中度盈余
	湖南	1.738	1.29	21	3.995	2.96	15	-2.258	23	中度欠缺
Ⅲ区组 20.63%	江苏	8.765	6.50	5	8.667	6.42	4	0.098	14	略微盈余
	山东	2.819	2.09	18	14.465	10.72	1	-11.646	30	重度欠缺
	河南	9.139	6.77	4	6.302	4.67	8	2.837	5	中度盈余
	广东	7.109	5.27	7	6.698	4.97	7	0.410	13	略微盈余
Ⅳ区组 6.37%	天津	0.693	0.51	27	1.733	1.28	26	-1.040	19	中度欠缺
	山西	0.591	0.44	29	9.118	6.76	2	-8.528	29	重度欠缺
	海南	1.619	1.20	22	0.695	0.52	29	0.924	11	略微盈余
	重庆	1.210	0.90	24	1.614	1.20	27	-0.404	16	轻度欠缺
	贵州	0.900	0.67	26	3.106	2.30	17	-2.206	22	中度欠缺
	甘肃	1.058	0.78	25	2.172	1.61	25	-1.114	20	中度欠缺
	青海	1.476	1.09	23	0.642	0.48	30	0.834	12	略微盈余
	宁夏	0.382	0.28	30	2.570	1.90	23	-2.187	21	中度欠缺
	新疆	0.669	0.50	28	5.641	4.18	9	-4.972	28	重度欠缺
Ⅴ区组 33.69%	内蒙古	5.838	4.33	9	8.636	6.40	5	-2.798	25	中度欠缺
	黑龙江	11.704	8.68	3	4.058	3.01	14	7.646	3	充分盈余
	四川	13.694	10.15	2	3.551	2.63	16	10.143	2	充分盈余
	云南	14.209	10.53	1	2.458	1.82	24	11.751	1	充分盈余
Ⅵ区组 15.39%	辽宁	3.008	2.23	17	7.289	5.40	6	-4.280	26	重度欠缺
	吉林	3.921	2.91	15	2.650	1.96	21	1.271	10	中度盈余
	福建	1.994	1.48	20	2.821	2.09	18	-0.827	18	轻度欠缺
	江西	4.855	3.60	10	2.752	2.04	20	2.103	6	中度盈余
	广西	4.515	3.35	11	2.790	2.07	19	1.725	8	中度盈余
	陕西	2.470	1.83	19	5.020	3.72	10	-2.550	24	中度欠缺

表3

图1

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指标		指标度量	作用方向
公平性	人口数量	从业劳动力数量/10⁴人	+
公平性	国内生产总值	GDP实际数值/10⁸元	+
效率性	碳生产力	GDP/碳排放量/(元/t)	+
保障性	林木蓄积量	林木资源蓄积数量/m³	+
保障性	农作物播种面积	农作物实际播种面积/10³ hm²	+

指标		指标度量	指标方向
欠缺现状	欠缺数量	碳排放权实际欠缺量/10⁸ t	负向
欠缺现状	欠缺程度	碳排放权/碳排放量/%	正向
减排现状	减排难度	碳的影子价格/(元/t)	负向
减排现状	减排效率	近5年年均减排速率/%	正向
经济发展	总体水平	GDP总量/10⁸元	正向
经济发展	发展程度	GDP/总人口/(元/人)	正向
政策支持	R&D投入	R&D投入金额/GDP/%	正向
政策支持	环境污染防治投入	环境污染防治投入额/GDP/%	正向