自然资源学报 ›› 2020, Vol. 35 ›› Issue (11): 2724-2743.doi: 10.31497/zrzyxb.20201113
收稿日期:
2020-01-15
修回日期:
2020-06-01
出版日期:
2020-11-28
发布日期:
2021-01-28
通讯作者:
杨宇
E-mail:huangyouxing@ouc.edu.cn;yangyu@igsnrr.ac.cn
作者简介:
黄友星(1986- ),男,山东青岛人,博士,副教授,主要从事国际直接投资与跨国公司研究。E-mail: 基金资助:
HUANG You-xing1(), LI Heng-cheng1, YANG Yu2,3,4(
)
Received:
2020-01-15
Revised:
2020-06-01
Online:
2020-11-28
Published:
2021-01-28
Contact:
Yu YANG
E-mail:huangyouxing@ouc.edu.cn;yangyu@igsnrr.ac.cn
摘要:
使用由多个数据库链接的微观数据,对中国对外援助能否促进中国企业的能源对外直接投资(Outward Foreign Direct Investment,OFDI)决策进行计量检验,结果发现:中国在东道国的援助活动显著增大了中国企业对东道国进行能源OFDI的概率,且当年援助的投资促进效应大于累计援助的促进效应,该结果在多种模型设定下均表现稳健;进一步检验中,研究发现中国对外援助对能源OFDI的促进效应在援助形式、用途和国家类别上存在广泛异质性,其中复合化和高级化的援助形式如技术援助和出口信贷,直接用于经济基础设施、能源产业发展、东道国政府财政的援助,以及援助“一带一路”沿线国家更能激发中国对外援助的能源OFDI促进效应。本文为中国对外援助能够带动中国能源OFDI提供了直接的微观证据,也为如何发挥对外援助的能源OFDI驱动效应提供了有益启示。
黄友星, 李恒丞, 杨宇. 对外援助能促进能源对外直接投资吗?——来自中国企业的微观证据[J]. 自然资源学报, 2020, 35(11): 2724-2743.
HUANG You-xing, LI Heng-cheng, YANG Yu. Does foreign aid boost energy outward foreign direct investment? Micro-evidence from Chinese firms[J]. JOURNAL OF NATURAL RESOURCES, 2020, 35(11): 2724-2743.
表1
控制变量设定"
特征 | 变量 | 测度方法 | 数据来源 |
---|---|---|---|
东道国基本 经济状态 | 经济规模 | 东道国不变价GDP(对数) | 世界银行(WDI) |
经济发展水平 | 东道国人均不变价GDP(对数) | 世界银行(WDI) | |
经济增长速度 | 东道国GDP增长率 | 世界银行(WDI) | |
对外开放度 | 东道国进出口总额与GDP的比值 | 世界银行(WDI) | |
汇率变动 | 东道国当地货币兑美元汇率的年度变化率 | 世界银行(WDI) | |
地理障碍 | 地理距离 | 东道国首都到中国首都的地理距离(对数) | 谷歌地球 |
要素禀赋 | 科技资源富集度 | 东道国高技术产品出口占制成品出口总额的比值 | 世界银行(WDI) |
能源富集度 | 东道国石油出口占出口总额的比值 | 世界银行(WDI) | |
制度差异 | 制度距离 | 取东道国与中国间关于制度因素的6个指标(话语权与问责制、政治稳定与杜绝暴力/恐怖主义、政府效率、监管质量、法治水平、腐败控制)绝对值的算术平均 | 全球治理指标 (WGI)数据库 |
政治关系 | 战略伙伴关系 | 通过对中国外交部官方公告中关键信息的提取和手工整理,将东道国与中国的战略伙伴关系由弱到强分为0到5共6级(对数) | 中国外交部网站 |
表2
基本统计量"
变量 | 观察值 | 均值 | 标准差 | 最小值 | 中位数 | 最大值 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
是否进行能源OFDI | 102371 | 0.003 | 0.051 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 1.000 |
累计援助项目数(对数) | 102371 | 1.566 | 1.651 | 0.000 | 1.099 | 5.130 |
当年援助项目数(对数) | 102371 | 0.751 | 0.850 | 0.000 | 0.693 | 3.584 |
经济规模(对数) | 96621 | 25.499 | 1.954 | 20.632 | 25.705 | 30.417 |
经济发展水平(对数) | 100071 | 8.672 | 1.576 | 5.450 | 8.740 | 11.425 |
经济增长速度 | 96621 | 0.043 | 0.069 | -0.621 | 0.043 | 1.231 |
贸易开放度 | 102371 | 0.393 | 0.303 | 0.000 | 0.323 | 2.312 |
汇率变动 | 87190 | 0.052 | 0.553 | -0.184 | 0.000 | 13.450 |
地理距离(对数) | 97771 | 14.865 | 1.193 | 11.290 | 15.213 | 16.117 |
高技术产品出口比 | 102371 | 0.093 | 0.133 | 0.000 | 0.042 | 0.987 |
能源出口比 | 102371 | 0.217 | 0.306 | 0.000 | 0.062 | 0.999 |
制度距离 | 102371 | 3.710 | 2.558 | 0.021 | 3.253 | 12.072 |
战略伙伴关系(对数) | 102371 | 1.060 | 0.528 | 0.000 | 0.693 | 1.792 |
表3
累计对外援助与能源OFDI决策(基准模型)"
变量 | 被解释变量:是否进行能源OFDI | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
模型(1) | 模型(2) | 模型(3) | 模型(4) | 模型(5) | 模型(6) | 模型(7) | |
累计援助项目数 | -0.021* | 0.054** | 0.050** | 0.052** | 0.045** | 0.046** | 0.059** |
(0.013) | (0.022) | (0.023) | (0.023) | (0.023) | (0.023) | (0.026) | |
经济规模 | 0.094*** | 0.095*** | 0.092*** | 0.067*** | 0.068*** | 0.076*** | |
(0.018) | (0.019) | (0.019) | (0.023) | (0.024) | (0.026) | ||
经济发展水平 | 0.071*** | 0.066** | 0.065** | 0.087*** | 0.089*** | 0.108*** | |
(0.027) | (0.028) | (0.028) | (0.030) | (0.031) | (0.034) | ||
经济增长速度 | 0.044 | 0.021 | 0.006 | -0.040 | -0.045 | -0.065 | |
(0.281) | (0.295) | (0.316) | (0.345) | (0.350) | (0.379) | ||
贸易开放度 | -0.255* | -0.260 | -0.270* | -0.301* | -0.296 | -0.309 | |
(0.145) | (0.160) | (0.163) | (0.181) | (0.183) | (0.197) | ||
汇率变动 | -0.058 | -0.058 | -0.065 | -0.086 | -0.085 | -0.095 | |
(0.048) | (0.049) | (0.049) | (0.061) | (0.059) | (0.061) | ||
地理距离 | -0.033* | -0.036* | -0.040** | -0.055** | -0.058** | -0.067*** | |
(0.019) | (0.020) | (0.020) | (0.022) | (0.023) | (0.025) | ||
高技术产品出口比 | -0.003 | -0.042 | -0.107 | -0.129 | -0.209 | ||
(0.217) | (0.222) | (0.216) | (0.219) | (0.240) | |||
能源出口比 | 0.070 | 0.078 | 0.063 | 0.058 | 0.013 | ||
(0.075) | (0.076) | (0.078) | (0.080) | (0.089) | |||
制度距离 | -0.012 | -0.013 | -0.014 | -0.020 | |||
(0.011) | (0.011) | (0.011) | (0.012) | ||||
战略伙伴关系 | 0.141*** | 0.149*** | 0.195*** | ||||
(0.054) | (0.055) | (0.061) | |||||
截距项 | -2.756*** | -5.314*** | -5.280*** | -5.070*** | -4.518*** | -4.367*** | -5.105*** |
(0.027) | (0.606) | (0.611) | (0.630) | (0.689) | (0.708) | (0.842) | |
产业效应 | 否 | 否 | 否 | 否 | 否 | 是 | 是 |
企业效应 | 否 | 否 | 否 | 否 | 否 | 否 | 是 |
观察值 | 102371 | 78795 | 78795 | 78795 | 78795 | 70575 | 46600 |
Pseduo- | 0.001 | 0.043 | 0.043 | 0.043 | 0.046 | 0.065 | 0.197 |
对数似然值 | -1883.17 | -1560.85 | -1560.36 | -1559.80 | -1555.62 | -1499.77 | -1207.48 |
2.79 | 113.93 | 111.11 | 111.64 | 113.89 | 154.50 | 622.06 |
表4
当年对外援助与能源OFDI决策(稳健性检验1)"
变量 | 被解释变量:是否进行能源OFDI | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
模型(1) | 模型(2) | 模型(3) | 模型(4) | 模型(5) | 模型(6) | 模型(7) | |
当年援助项目数 | -0.041 | 0.094** | 0.089** | 0.091** | 0.086** | 0.087** | 0.109** |
(0.026) | (0.041) | (0.041) | (0.041) | (0.042) | (0.043) | (0.047) | |
经济规模 | 0.094*** | 0.096*** | 0.092*** | 0.066*** | 0.067*** | 0.076*** | |
(0.018) | (0.019) | (0.020) | (0.023) | (0.024) | (0.027) | ||
经济发展水平 | 0.064** | 0.059** | 0.059** | 0.084*** | 0.086*** | 0.104*** | |
(0.026) | (0.026) | (0.026) | (0.028) | (0.029) | (0.033) | ||
经济增长速度 | 0.029 | 0.001 | -0.013 | -0.057 | -0.062 | -0.084 | |
(0.278) | (0.293) | (0.313) | (0.343) | (0.349) | (0.377) | ||
贸易开放度 | -0.258* | -0.262 | -0.272* | -0.304* | -0.299 | -0.313 | |
(0.146) | (0.162) | (0.164) | (0.183) | (0.185) | (0.199) | ||
汇率变动 | -0.051 | -0.052 | -0.059 | -0.082 | -0.081 | -0.090 | |
(0.043) | (0.045) | (0.046) | (0.060) | (0.058) | (0.060) | ||
地理距离 | -0.032* | -0.035* | -0.039** | -0.055** | -0.058** | -0.067*** | |
(0.019) | (0.020) | (0.020) | (0.022) | (0.023) | (0.025) | ||
高技术产品出口比 | -0.011 | -0.047 | -0.114 | -0.136 | -0.217 | ||
(0.216) | (0.221) | (0.215) | (0.218) | (0.239) | |||
能源出口比 | 0.078 | 0.086 | 0.069 | 0.064 | 0.022 | ||
(0.074) | (0.076) | (0.077) | (0.079) | (0.088) | |||
制度距离 | -0.012 | -0.013 | -0.014 | -0.019 | |||
(0.011) | (0.011) | (0.011) | (0.012) | ||||
战略伙伴关系 | 0.148*** | 0.155*** | 0.203*** | ||||
(0.054) | (0.055) | (0.061) | |||||
截距项 | -2.758*** | -5.260*** | -5.234*** | -5.027*** | -4.490*** | -4.333*** | -5.064*** |
(0.026) | (0.594) | (0.601) | (0.623) | (0.679) | (0.697) | (0.832) | |
产业效应 | 否 | 否 | 否 | 否 | 否 | 是 | 是 |
企业效应 | 否 | 否 | 否 | 否 | 否 | 否 | 是 |
观察值 | 102371 | 78795 | 78795 | 78795 | 78795 | 70575 | 46600 |
Pseduo- | 0.001 | 0.042 | 0.043 | 0.043 | 0.046 | 0.065 | 0.197 |
对数似然值 | -1883.19 | -1561.30 | -1560.68 | -1560.15 | -1555.55 | -1499.76 | -1207.44 |
2.64 | 115.14 | 111.72 | 112.05 | 114.45 | 154.26 | 626.03 |
表5
多种模型设定下对外援助与能源OFDI决策(稳健性检验2)"
变量 | 被解释变量:能源OFDI决策 | ||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Panel A:稀有事件 | Panel B: 异质Probit | Panel C: 滞后一期 | Panel D: OFDI金额 | ||||||||
A-1 | A-2 | B-1 | B-2 | C-1 | C-2 | D-1 | D-2 | ||||
累计援助项目数 | 0.140* | 0.004* | 0.037 | 0.002* | |||||||
(0.073) | (0.002) | (0.024) | (0.001) | ||||||||
当年援助项目数 | 0.258* | 0.007* | 0.055 | 0.003 | |||||||
(0.132) | (0.004) | (0.048) | (0.002) | ||||||||
经济规模 | 0.193** | 0.192** | 0.020*** | 0.021*** | 0.090*** | 0.090*** | 0.006*** | 0.006*** | |||
(0.075) | (0.075) | (0.006) | (0.006) | (0.025) | (0.025) | (0.001) | (0.001) | ||||
经济发展水平 | 0.293*** | 0.281*** | 0.007** | 0.006** | 0.071** | 0.063** | 0.005*** | 0.005*** | |||
(0.094) | (0.090) | (0.003) | (0.003) | (0.031) | (0.030) | (0.002) | (0.002) | ||||
经济增长速度 | 0.136 | 0.098 | 0.004 | 0.002 | 0.074 | 0.082 | -0.001 | -0.001 | |||
(1.051) | (1.047) | (0.022) | (0.022) | (0.325) | (0.323) | (0.011) | (0.011) | ||||
贸易开放度 | -1.106* | -1.111* | -0.015 | -0.015 | -0.229 | -0.225 | -0.020*** | -0.020*** | |||
(0.658) | (0.666) | (0.015) | (0.015) | (0.171) | (0.173) | (0.007) | (0.007) | ||||
汇率变动 | -0.264 | -0.254 | -0.005 | -0.005 | -0.329 | -0.336 | -0.001 | -0.001 | |||
(0.199) | (0.195) | (0.005) | (0.004) | (0.202) | (0.209) | (0.001) | (0.001) | ||||
地理距离 | -0.160** | -0.161** | 0.000 | 0.000 | -0.068*** | -0.068*** | -0.005*** | -0.005*** | |||
(0.069) | (0.069) | (0.002) | (0.002) | (0.025) | (0.025) | (0.002) | (0.002) | ||||
高技术产品出口比 | -0.318 | -0.348 | -0.013 | -0.014 | -0.213 | -0.230 | -0.002 | -0.002 | |||
(0.682) | (0.680) | (0.016) | (0.016) | (0.242) | (0.242) | (0.011) | (0.011) | ||||
能源出口比 | 0.249 | 0.274 | 0.009 | 0.010 | 0.060 | 0.066 | 0.003 | 0.003 | |||
(0.245) | (0.242) | (0.006) | (0.006) | (0.085) | (0.085) | (0.005) | (0.005) | ||||
制度距离 | -0.042 | -0.042 | -0.001 | -0.001 | -0.016 | -0.015 | 0.000 | 0.000 | |||
(0.033) | (0.034) | (0.001) | (0.001) | (0.012) | (0.012) | (0.001) | (0.001) | ||||
战略伙伴关系 | 0.446*** | 0.465*** | 0.012** | 0.013** | 0.163*** | 0.166*** | 0.005 | 0.005 | |||
(0.167) | (0.166) | (0.005) | (0.006) | (0.061) | (0.061) | (0.004) | (0.004) | ||||
截距项 | -12.031*** | -11.881*** | -0.774*** | -0.781*** | -5.094*** | -5.016*** | -0.100*** | -0.098*** | |||
(2.490) | (2.453) | (0.245) | (0.247) | (0.815) | (0.819) | (0.032) | (0.032) | ||||
产业效应 | 是 | 是 | 是 | 是 | 是 | 是 | 是 | 是 | |||
企业效应 | 是 | 是 | 是 | 是 | 是 | 是 | 是 | 是 | |||
观察值 | 46600 | 46600 | 46600 | 46600 | 46804 | 46804 | 71945 | 71945 | |||
Pseduo- | — | — | — | — | 0.195 | 0.194 | — | — | |||
对数似然值 | -1203.53 | -1203.59 | -1193.06 | -1193.45 | -1212.21 | -1212.80 | — | — | |||
调整 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 0.028 | 0.028 | |||
767.25 | 771.03 | 81.91 | 82.57 | 599.36 | 599.04 | -31568.20 | -31568.40 |
表6
基于不同援助界定标准的对外援助与能源OFDI决策(稳健性检验3)"
变量 | 被解释变量:是否进行能源OFDI | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Panel A: 累计援助项目数 | Panel B: 当年援助项目数 | ||||||
A-1 | A-2 | A-3 | B-1 | B-2 | B-3 | ||
ODA | OOF | ODAOOF | ODA | OOF | ODAOOF | ||
援助项目数 | 0.081*** | 0.060** | 0.060** | 0.151*** | 0.099* | 0.112** | |
(0.031) | (0.029) | (0.027) | (0.053) | (0.054) | (0.048) | ||
经济规模 | 0.079*** | 0.069*** | 0.076*** | 0.082*** | 0.069*** | 0.076*** | |
(0.027) | (0.026) | (0.026) | (0.027) | (0.026) | (0.027) | ||
经济发展水平 | 0.121*** | 0.090*** | 0.107*** | 0.109*** | 0.079*** | 0.102*** | |
(0.037) | (0.031) | (0.034) | (0.033) | (0.030) | (0.032) | ||
经济增长速度 | -0.150 | -0.035 | -0.068 | -0.087 | -0.087 | -0.087 | |
(0.404) | (0.360) | (0.379) | (0.382) | (0.368) | (0.376) | ||
贸易开放度 | -0.299 | -0.333* | -0.310 | -0.296 | -0.336* | -0.313 | |
(0.201) | (0.198) | (0.197) | (0.203) | (0.203) | (0.199) | ||
汇率变动 | -0.090 | -0.092 | -0.095 | -0.088 | -0.078 | -0.089 | |
(0.056) | (0.061) | (0.061) | (0.056) | (0.056) | (0.059) | ||
地理距离 | -0.067*** | -0.069*** | -0.067*** | -0.065*** | -0.072*** | -0.066*** | |
(0.024) | (0.025) | (0.025) | (0.024) | (0.025) | (0.025) | ||
高技术产品出口比 | -0.227 | -0.180 | -0.208 | -0.243 | -0.209 | -0.212 | |
(0.243) | (0.239) | (0.241) | (0.243) | (0.236) | (0.241) | ||
能源出口比 | 0.033 | 0.006 | 0.014 | 0.043 | 0.026 | 0.026 | |
(0.087) | (0.090) | (0.089) | (0.087) | (0.088) | (0.087) | ||
制度距离 | -0.018 | -0.020* | -0.019 | -0.017 | -0.020* | -0.019 | |
(0.012) | (0.012) | (0.012) | (0.012) | (0.012) | (0.012) | ||
战略伙伴关系 | 0.212*** | 0.181*** | 0.193*** | 0.225*** | 0.191*** | 0.202*** | |
(0.061) | (0.063) | (0.062) | (0.062) | (0.063) | (0.061) | ||
截距项 | -5.334*** | -4.658*** | -5.106*** | -5.325*** | -4.522*** | -5.073*** | |
(0.859) | (0.778) | (0.844) | (0.839) | (0.767) | (0.834) | ||
产业效应 | 是 | 是 | 是 | 是 | 是 | 是 | |
企业效应 | 是 | 是 | 是 | 是 | 是 | 是 | |
观察值 | 46600 | 46600 | 46600 | 46600 | 46600 | 46600 | |
Pseduo- | 0.198 | 0.196 | 0.197 | 0.198 | 0.196 | 0.197 | |
对数似然值 | -1206.24 | -1208.43 | -1207.44 | -1206.20 | -1208.89 | -1207.42 | |
630.36 | 621.73 | 621.79 | 640.74 | 625.57 | 628.38 |
表7
对外援助形式与能源OFDI决策"
变量 | 被解释变量:是否进行能源OFDI | ||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Panel: A | Panel B: 融资支持 | Panel C:技术支持 | Panel: D | ||||||||
A-1 | B-1 | B-2 | B-3 | C-1 | C-2 | C-3 | C-4 | ||||
无偿援助 | 融资援助 | 低息贷款 | 债务免除 | 技术援助 | 纯技术援助 | 奖学金 | 出口信贷 | ||||
累计援助项目数 | 0.084*** | 0.085*** | 0.081*** | 0.207** | 0.124*** | 0.139*** | 0.182*** | 0.222*** | |||
(0.032) | (0.029) | (0.029) | (0.083) | (0.044) | (0.047) | (0.057) | (0.055) | ||||
经济规模 | 0.078*** | 0.072*** | 0.070*** | 0.081*** | 0.078*** | 0.078*** | 0.074*** | 0.054** | |||
(0.026) | (0.027) | (0.027) | (0.027) | (0.026) | (0.026) | (0.026) | (0.026) | ||||
经济发展水平 | 0.118*** | 0.105*** | 0.102*** | 0.090*** | 0.111*** | 0.111*** | 0.089*** | 0.115*** | |||
(0.035) | (0.032) | (0.032) | (0.032) | (0.033) | (0.033) | (0.031) | (0.032) | ||||
经济增长速度 | -0.108 | -0.075 | -0.069 | -0.119 | -0.085 | -0.057 | -0.141 | -0.119 | |||
(0.396) | (0.376) | (0.373) | (0.388) | (0.397) | (0.389) | (0.401) | (0.398) | ||||
贸易开放度 | -0.299 | -0.322 | -0.329 | -0.282 | -0.322 | -0.310 | -0.346* | -0.329 | |||
(0.196) | (0.199) | (0.201) | (0.203) | (0.205) | (0.204) | (0.208) | (0.201) | ||||
汇率变动 | -0.089 | -0.105 | -0.101 | -0.105* | -0.087 | -0.084 | -0.094 | -0.122* | |||
(0.055) | (0.069) | (0.068) | (0.061) | (0.056) | (0.054) | (0.060) | (0.066) | ||||
地理距离 | -0.068*** | -0.067*** | -0.068*** | -0.069*** | -0.065*** | -0.065*** | -0.072*** | -0.086*** | |||
(0.025) | (0.025) | (0.025) | (0.024) | (0.024) | (0.024) | (0.024) | (0.025) | ||||
高技术产品出口比 | -0.225 | -0.181 | -0.183 | -0.250 | -0.207 | -0.224 | -0.186 | -0.161 | |||
(0.244) | (0.236) | (0.235) | (0.242) | (0.245) | (0.245) | (0.239) | (0.237) | ||||
能源出口比 | 0.032 | -0.011 | -0.011 | 0.029 | 0.041 | 0.040 | 0.049 | 0.024 | |||
(0.088) | (0.090) | (0.089) | (0.087) | (0.088) | (0.088) | (0.087) | (0.086) | ||||
制度距离 | -0.016 | -0.020 | -0.020 | -0.017 | -0.016 | -0.014 | -0.020* | -0.022* | |||
(0.012) | (0.012) | (0.012) | (0.012) | (0.012) | (0.013) | (0.012) | (0.013) | ||||
战略伙伴关系 | 0.204*** | 0.186*** | 0.185*** | 0.233*** | 0.206*** | 0.208*** | 0.202*** | 0.170*** | |||
(0.061) | (0.061) | (0.062) | (0.062) | (0.061) | (0.061) | (0.061) | (0.058) | ||||
截距项 | -5.280*** | -4.931*** | -4.823*** | -5.061*** | -5.224*** | -5.243*** | -4.762*** | -4.245*** | |||
(0.852) | (0.805) | (0.804) | (0.788) | (0.806) | (0.803) | (0.767) | (0.754) | ||||
产业效应 | 是 | 是 | 是 | 是 | 是 | 是 | 是 | 是 | |||
企业效应 | 是 | 是 | 是 | 是 | 是 | 是 | 是 | 是 | |||
观察值 | 46600 | 46600 | 46600 | 46600 | 46600 | 46600 | 46600 | 46600 | |||
Pseduo- | 0.198 | 0.198 | 0.198 | 0.197 | 0.198 | 0.198 | 0.198 | 0.200 | |||
对数似然值 | -1206.11 | -1206.42 | -1206.63 | -1207.67 | -1206.16 | -1205.86 | -1206.54 | -1202.61 | |||
627.77 | 620.25 | 619.46 | 635.51 | 630.93 | 633.87 | 632.63 | 632.94 |
表8
对外援助在东道国的用途分类"
用途大类 | 用途小类 | 包含内容 |
---|---|---|
基础设施 | 社会基础设施 | 教育、健康、其他社会基础设施与服务 |
经济基础设施 | 通信设施、交通运输与仓储、水供给与污水处理 | |
产业发展 | 产业总体 | 农业、林业与渔业、 能源生产与供应、制造业、矿业与建筑业、银行与金融服务业、商业和其他服务业、贸易和旅游业、其他多元化产业 |
能源产业 | 能源生产与供应 | |
其他产业 | 农业、林业与渔业、制造业、矿业与建筑业、银行与金融服务业、商业和其他服务业、贸易和旅游业、其他多元化产业 | |
社会发展 | 社会发展 | 食品援助/食品安全、紧急事态响应、环境保护、政府与民间社团发展支持、非食品商品援助、人口政策、妇女发展 |
政府财政 | 政府财政 | 一般性预算支持、债务相关支持 |
表9
对外援助用途与能源OFDI决策"
变量 | 被解释变量:是否进行能源OFDI | ||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Panel A: 基础设施 | Panel B:产业发展 | Panel C | Panel D | ||||||
A-1 | A-2 | B-1 | B-2 | B-3 | C-1 | D-1 | |||
社会基础设施 | 经济基础设施 | 产业总体 | 能源产业 | 其他产业 | 社会发展 | 政府财政 | |||
累计援助项目数 | 0.068* | 0.144*** | 0.095*** | 0.125*** | 0.103** | 0.111*** | 0.269*** | ||
(0.035) | (0.038) | (0.034) | (0.035) | (0.042) | (0.033) | (0.083) | |||
经济规模 | 0.075*** | 0.070*** | 0.075*** | 0.064** | 0.079*** | 0.072*** | 0.084*** | ||
(0.026) | (0.027) | (0.026) | (0.026) | (0.027) | (0.026) | (0.027) | |||
经济发展水平 | 0.096*** | 0.121*** | 0.109*** | 0.104*** | 0.102*** | 0.121*** | 0.104*** | ||
(0.032) | (0.033) | (0.033) | (0.032) | (0.033) | (0.035) | (0.033) | |||
经济增长速度 | -0.060 | -0.087 | -0.080 | -0.143 | -0.055 | -0.171 | -0.103 | ||
(0.382) | (0.397) | (0.375) | (0.389) | (0.370) | (0.393) | (0.397) | |||
贸易开放度 | -0.323 | -0.334* | -0.291 | -0.317 | -0.295 | -0.314 | -0.271 | ||
(0.199) | (0.200) | (0.196) | (0.198) | (0.198) | (0.204) | (0.200) | |||
汇率变动 | -0.079 | -0.116 | -0.102 | -0.117* | -0.094 | -0.101 | -0.109* | ||
(0.053) | (0.074) | (0.063) | (0.070) | (0.058) | (0.062) | (0.064) | |||
地理距离 | -0.066*** | -0.070*** | -0.066*** | -0.075*** | -0.064*** | -0.077*** | -0.070*** | ||
(0.025) | (0.024) | (0.025) | (0.025) | (0.025) | (0.024) | (0.024) | |||
高技术产品出口比 | -0.194 | -0.145 | -0.227 | -0.204 | -0.239 | -0.235 | -0.209 | ||
(0.244) | (0.235) | (0.239) | (0.240) | (0.238) | (0.242) | (0.245) | |||
能源出口比 | 0.027 | 0.010 | -0.016 | -0.007 | -0.011 | 0.060 | 0.042 | ||
(0.088) | (0.087) | (0.091) | (0.089) | (0.091) | (0.087) | (0.087) | |||
制度距离 | -0.018 | -0.024* | -0.020 | -0.020 | -0.020 | -0.015 | -0.016 | ||
(0.012) | (0.012) | (0.013) | (0.012) | (0.013) | (0.012) | (0.012) | |||
战略伙伴关系 | 0.208*** | 0.189*** | 0.187*** | 0.194*** | 0.190*** | 0.201*** | 0.233*** | ||
(0.061) | (0.061) | (0.061) | (0.060) | (0.061) | (0.060) | (0.062) | |||
截距项 | -4.967*** | -5.016*** | -5.078*** | -4.594*** | -5.140*** | -4.990*** | -5.279*** | ||
(0.830) | (0.794) | (0.793) | (0.770) | (0.812) | (0.779) | (0.808) | |||
产业效应 | 是 | 是 | 是 | 是 | 是 | 是 | 是 | ||
企业效应 | 是 | 是 | 是 | 是 | 是 | 是 | 是 | ||
观察值 | 46600 | 46600 | 46600 | 46600 | 46600 | 46600 | 46600 | ||
Pseduo- | 0.196 | 0.200 | 0.198 | 0.199 | 0.197 | 0.199 | 0.199 | ||
对数似然值 | -1208.44 | -1202.99 | -1206.18 | -1205.11 | -1207.13 | -1204.66 | -1205.06 | ||
625.17 | 636.51 | 622.85 | 618.76 | 629.32 | 630.97 | 644.43 |
表10
对外援助、东道国类型与能源OFDI决策"
变量 | 被解释变量:是否进行能源OFDI | |||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Panel A: 合作框架 | Panel B: 高失败风险 | Panel C | ||||||
A-1 | A-2 | B-1 | B-2 | B-3 | C-1 | |||
一带一路 | AIIB成员 | 有失败经历 | 失败数 | 失败率 | 低收入国家 | |||
累计援助项目数 | -0.009 | 0.066* | 0.177*** | 0.099*** | 0.079** | 0.062** | ||
(0.034) | (0.035) | (0.052) | (0.034) | (0.032) | (0.028) | |||
累计援助项目数 | 0.108*** | -0.011 | -0.145*** | -0.037*** | -0.073 | 0.034 | ||
(0.039) | (0.037) | (0.047) | (0.012) | (0.059) | (0.144) | |||
经济规模 | 0.071*** | 0.074*** | 0.038 | 0.025 | 0.085*** | 0.087*** | ||
(0.027) | (0.027) | (0.024) | (0.026) | (0.027) | (0.028) | |||
经济发展水平 | 0.092** | 0.101*** | 0.165*** | 0.039 | 0.118*** | 0.121*** | ||
(0.037) | (0.034) | (0.035) | (0.035) | (0.035) | (0.036) | |||
经济增长速度 | -0.100 | -0.299 | -0.293 | -0.391 | -0.072 | -0.033 | ||
(0.372) | (0.504) | (0.313) | (0.418) | (0.276) | (0.380) | |||
贸易开放度 | -0.256 | -0.410* | -0.319* | 0.084 | -0.308 | -0.261 | ||
(0.213) | (0.210) | (0.164) | (0.170) | (0.198) | (0.193) | |||
汇率变动 | -0.085 | -0.074 | -0.171* | -0.111** | -0.113 | -0.109* | ||
(0.054) | (0.049) | (0.093) | (0.055) | (0.071) | (0.065) | |||
地理距离 | -0.078*** | -0.121*** | -0.051** | -0.052** | -0.063** | -0.063*** | ||
(0.026) | (0.026) | (0.025) | (0.024) | (0.025) | (0.024) | |||
高技术产品出口比 | -0.289 | -0.247 | -0.343 | -0.275 | -0.242 | -0.254 | ||
(0.268) | (0.238) | (0.294) | (0.284) | (0.251) | (0.243) | |||
能源出口比 | 0.096 | 0.057 | 0.050 | 0.010 | 0.023 | 0.026 | ||
(0.093) | (0.095) | (0.088) | (0.099) | (0.088) | (0.091) | |||
制度距离 | -0.021* | -0.010 | -0.027** | -0.004 | -0.020* | -0.018 | ||
(0.013) | (0.013) | (0.013) | (0.014) | (0.012) | (0.012) | |||
战略伙伴关系 | 0.170*** | 0.107* | 0.174*** | 0.355*** | 0.209*** | 0.213*** | ||
(0.061) | (0.063) | (0.063) | (0.061) | (0.062) | (0.061) | |||
国家类型 | -0.146 | 0.345*** | 0.785*** | 0.221*** | 0.417*** | 0.136 | ||
(0.092) | (0.088) | (0.109) | (0.018) | (0.095) | (0.500) | |||
截距项 | -4.595*** | -4.300*** | -5.376*** | -4.162*** | -5.575*** | -5.633*** | ||
(0.870) | (0.864) | (0.853) | (0.885) | (0.897) | (0.923) | |||
产业效应 | 是 | 是 | 是 | 是 | 是 | 是 | ||
企业效应 | 是 | 是 | 是 | 是 | 是 | 是 | ||
观察值 | 46600 | 46600 | 46600 | 46600 | 46600 | 46600 | ||
Pseduo- | 0.200 | 0.205 | 0.230 | 0.252 | 0.200 | 0.198 | ||
对数似然值 | -1203.09 | -1196.23 | -1157.66 | -1124.36 | -1203.56 | -1205.68 | ||
636.30 | 628.64 | 702.35 | 896.51 | 620.15 | 654.81 |
[1] | 沈镭, 张红丽, 钟帅, 等. 新时代下中国自然资源安全的战略思考. 自然资源学报, 2018,33(5):721-734. |
[ SHEN L, ZHANG H L, ZHONG S, et al. Strategic thinking on China's natural resources security in the New Era. Journal of Natural Resources, 2018,33(5):721-734.] | |
[2] | 曾现来, 闫晓宇, 张宇平, 等. 中国资源的进出口与产出率: 演化、挑战及对策. 自然资源学报, 2018,33(4):552-562. |
[ ZENG X L, YAN X Y, ZHANG Y P, et al. Import, export and output of China's resources: Evolution, challenges and countermeasures. Journal of Natural Resources, 2018,33(4):552-562.] | |
[3] | 闫雪凌, 胡阳. 制度、文化与中国 OFDI 的利益动机. 南方经济, 2016, (6):1-17. |
[ YAN X L, HU Y. Institution, culture and profit motive of China's OFDI. South China Journal of Economics, 2016, (6):1-17.] | |
[4] | 杨亚平, 高玥. “一带一路”沿线国家的投资选址: 制度距离与海外华人网络的视角. 经济学动态, 2017, (4):41-52. |
[ YANG Y P, GAO Y. Investment location of "One Belt and One Road" countries along the Belt and Road: The perspective of institutional distance and overseas Chinese network. Economic Perspectives, 2017, (4):41-52.] | |
[5] | 陈岩, 郭文博. 制度风险与跨国并购成败: 大国外交和经济“软实力”的调节作用. 世界经济研究, 2018, (5):51-64. |
[ CHEN Y, GUO W B. Institutional risk and the success or failure of cross-border mergers and acquisitions: The moderating role of great power diplomacy and economic "soft power". World Economy Studies, 2018, (5):51-64.] | |
[6] | 李诗, 吴超鹏. 中国企业跨国并购成败影响因素实证研究: 基于政治和文化视角. 南开管理评论, 2016,19(3):18-30. |
[ LI S, WU C P. Empirical study on the factors influencing the success or failure of Chinese enterprises' cross-border mergers and acquisitions: Based on political and cultural perspectives. Nankai Business Review, 2016,19(3):18-30.] | |
[7] | DONAUBAUER J, MEYER B, NUNNENKAMP P. Aid, infrastructure, and FDI: Assessing the transmission channel with a new index of infrastructure. World Development, 2016,78:230-245. |
[8] | ASIEDU E, JIN Y, NANDWA B. Does foreign aid mitigate the adverse effect of expropriation risk on foreign direct investment?. Journal of International Economics, 2009,78(2):268-275. |
[9] | HARMS P, LUTZ M. Aid, governance and private foreign investment: some puzzling findings for the 1990s. The Economic Journal, 2006,116(513):773-790. |
[10] | KIMURA H, TODO Y. Is foreign aid a vanguard of foreign direct investment? A gravity-equation approach. World Development, 2010,38(4):482-497. |
[11] | BLAISE S. Japanese aid as a prerequisite for FDI: The case of Southeast Asian countries. Australia-Japan Research Centre, Asia Pacific Economic Papers, Canberra: Australia, 2009: 385. |
[12] | SANFILIPPO M. Chinese FDI to Africa: What is the nexus with foreign economic cooperation?. African Development Review, 2010,22:599-614. |
[13] | 张汉林, 袁佳, 孔洋. 中国对非洲ODA与FDI关联度研究. 世界经济研究, 2010, (11):69-74. |
[ ZHANG H L, YUAN J, KONG Y. A study on the correlation between ODA and FDI in Africa. World Economy Studies, 2010, (11):69-74.] | |
[14] | ANYANWU J C. Why does foreign direct investment go where it goes: New evidence from African countries. Annals of Economics & Finance, 2012,13(2):425-462. |
[15] | KRISTJÁNSDÓTTIR H. Substitution between inward and outward foreign direct investment. Public and Municipal Finance, 2012,1(2):23-28. |
[16] | ARELLANO C, BULÍŘ A, LANE T, et al. The dynamic implications of foreign aid and its variability. Journal of Development Economics, 2009,88(1):87-102. |
[17] |
DJANKOV S, QIAN Y, ROLAND G, et al. Who are China's entrepreneurs?. American Economic Review, 2006,96(2):348-352.
doi: 10.1257/000282806777212387 |
[18] | SVENSSON J. Foreign aid and rent-seeking. The World Bank, 1999. |
[19] | DONG Y, FAN C. The effects of China's aid and trade on its ODI in African countries. Emerging Markets Review, 2017,33:1-18. |
[20] | SELAYA P, SUNESEN E R. Does foreign aid increase foreign direct investment?. World Development, 2012,40(11):2155-2176. |
[21] | 王翚, 甘小军, 刘超. 国际双边发展援助对FDI的影响研究: 基于17个OECD国家对华发展援助的实证. 国际贸易问题, 2013, (6):115-123. |
[ WANG H, GAN X J, LIU C. A study on the impact of international bilateral development assistance on FDI-based on the development assistance to China of 17 OECD countries. Journal of International Trade, 2013, (6):115-123.] | |
[22] | DONAUBAUER J, HERZER D, NUNNENKAMP P. Does aid for education attract foreign investors? An empirical analysis for Latin America. The European Journal of Development Research, 2014,26(5):597-613. |
[23] | KANG G S, WON Y. Does Korea's official development assistance (ODA) promote its FDI?. Journal of Economic Research, 2017,22(1):23-46. |
[24] | 董艳, 樊此君. 援助会促进投资吗? 基于中国对非洲援助及直接投资的实证研究. 国际贸易问题, 2016, (3):59-69. |
[ DONG Y, FAN C J. Will aid promote investment? Based on empirical research on China's aid and direct investment in Africa. International Trade Problem, 2016, (3):59-69.] | |
[25] | CARRO M, LARRÚ J M. Flowing together or flowing apart: An analysis of the relation between FDI and ODA flows to Argentina and Brazil. MPRA Paper, 2010: 25064. |
[26] | KANG S J, LEE H, PARK B. Does Korea follow Japan in foreign aid? Relationships between aid and foreign investment. Japan and the World Economy, 2011,23(1):19-27. |
[27] | 陈泽意, 李常青, 魏志华. 媒体负面报道影响并购成败吗? 来自上市公司重大资产重组的经验证据. 南开管理评论, 2017,20(1):96-107. |
[ CHEN Z Y, LI C Q, WEI Z H. Does negative media coverage affect the success or failure of mergers and acquisitions? Empirical evidence from major asset reorganizations of listed companies. Nankai Business Review, 2017,20(1):96-107.] | |
[28] | 蒋冠宏. 制度差异、文化距离与中国企业对外直接投资风险. 世界经济研究, 2015, (8):37-47. |
[ JIANG G H. Institutional differences, cultural distance and ofdi risk of Chinese enterprises. World Economy Studies, 2015, (8):37-47.] | |
[29] | 周伟, 陈昭, 吴先明. 中国在“一带一路”OFDI的国家风险研究: 基于39个沿线东道国的量化评价. 世界经济研究, 2017, (8):15-25. |
[ ZHOU W, CHEN Z, WU X M. Country risk study of China in "One Belt And One Road" OFDI: Based on quantitative evaluation of 39 host countries along the route. World Economy Studies, 2017, (8):15-25.] | |
[30] | 田素华, 王璇. FDI双向流动和净流动影响因素研究: 基于全球58个经济体的实证分析. 世界经济研究, 2007, (7):40-53. |
[ TIAN S H, WANG X. Study on influencing factors of FDI two-way flows and net flows: Based on empirical analysis of 58 economies around the world. World Economy Studies, 2007, (7):40-53.] | |
[31] | 李晓, 杨戈. 中国“一带一路”沿线投资的影响因素研究: 基于投资引力模型的实证检验. 东北师大学报: 哲学社会科学版, 2019, (16):151-158. |
[ LI X, YANG G. Study on influencing factors of "One Belt and One Road" investment along the line in China: Empirical test based on investment gravity model. Journal of Northeast Normal University: Philosophy and Social Sciences, 2019, (16):151-158.] | |
[32] | BUCKLEY P J, CLEGG L J, VOSS H, et al. A retrospective and agenda for future research on Chinese outward foreign direct investment. Journal of International Business Studies, 2018,49(1):4-23. |
[33] | KOLSTAD I, WIIG A. What determines Chinese outward FDI?. Journal of World Business, 2012,47(1):26-34. |
[34] | RAMASAMY B, YEUNG M, LAFORET S. China's outward foreign direct investment: Location choice and firm ownership. Journal of World Business, 2012,47(1):17-25. |
[35] | HELPMAN E, MELITZ M J, YEAPLE S R. Export versus FDI with heterogeneous firms. American Economic Review, 2004,94(1):300-316. |
[36] | YAN B, ZHANG Y, SHEN Y, et al. Productivity, financial constraints and outward foreign direct investment: Firm-level evidence. China Economic Review, 2018,47:47-64. |
[37] | HARVEY A C. Estimating regression models with multiplicative heteroscedasticity. Econometrica: Journal of the Econometric Society, 1976: 461-465. |
[1] | 吴景辉, 张戈, 王耕. 能源富集区贸易隐含碳及隐含SO2排放转移——以山西省为例[J]. 自然资源学报, 2020, 35(6): 1445-1459. |
[2] | 杨宇. 论地缘能权[J]. 自然资源学报, 2020, 35(11): 2572-2584. |
[3] | 崔守军, 蔡宇, 姜墨骞. 重大技术变革与能源地缘政治转型[J]. 自然资源学报, 2020, 35(11): 2585-2595. |
[4] | 刘承良, 王杰, 杜德斌. 中美能源权力的空间领域与均势区演化[J]. 自然资源学报, 2020, 35(11): 2596-2612. |
[5] | 苏俊, 王永洵, 王强. 全球能源安全的格局演变与地缘博弈[J]. 自然资源学报, 2020, 35(11): 2613-2628. |
[6] | 韩梦瑶, 熊焦, 刘卫东. 中国跨境能源贸易及隐含能源流动对比——以“一带一路”能源合作为例[J]. 自然资源学报, 2020, 35(11): 2674-2686. |
[7] | 何则, 周彦楠, 刘毅. 2050年中国能源消费结构的系统动力学模拟——基于重点行业的转型情景[J]. 自然资源学报, 2020, 35(11): 2696-2707. |
[8] | 黄永源, 朱晟君. 公众环境关注、环境规制与中国能源密集型产业动态[J]. 自然资源学报, 2020, 35(11): 2744-2758. |
[9] | 丁月清, 洪增林, 金光, 张亚鸽, 薛旭平, 杨建华. 关中地区清洁能源供暖综合效益评价——西安某商业建筑的案例实证[J]. 自然资源学报, 2020, 35(11): 2759-2769. |
[10] | 杨敏, 张鹏鹏, 张力小, 郝岩. 北京城市去煤炭化过程及其驱动因素解析[J]. 自然资源学报, 2020, 35(11): 2783-2792. |
[11] | 李宏庆, 邢冉, 姜璐, 陈兴鹏, 薛冰. 青藏高原东北部土族家庭能源消费特征[J]. 自然资源学报, 2020, 35(11): 2793-2802. |
[12] | 杨宇, 于宏源, 鲁刚, 王礼茂, 赵媛, 郝丽莎, 任东明, 方伟, 安海忠, 蔡国田. 世界能源百年变局与国家能源安全[J]. 自然资源学报, 2020, 35(11): 2803-2820. |
[13] | 何可, 张俊飚. “熟人社会”农村与“原子化”农村中的生猪养殖废弃物能源化利用——博弈、仿真与现实检验[J]. 自然资源学报, 2020, 35(10): 2484-2498. |
[14] | 彭焜, 朱鹤, 王赛鸽, 陈斌, 魏文栋, 李佳硕. 基于系统投入产出和生态网络分析的能源-水耦合关系与协同管理研究——以湖北省为例[J]. 自然资源学报, 2018, 33(9): 1514-1528. |
[15] | 田成诗, 李金. 大型城市紧凑度与能源效率的关系研究[J]. 自然资源学报, 2018, 33(10): 1781-1795. |
|