自然资源学报 ›› 2020, Vol. 35 ›› Issue (11): 2708-2723.doi: 10.31497/zrzyxb.20201112

• 能源经济与环境 • 上一篇    下一篇

基于供需视角的中国煤炭消费演变特征及其驱动机制

王长建1,2(), 汪菲3, 叶玉瑶1,2, 张新林4, 苏泳娴1,2, 姜璐1,2, 李增5, 张虹鸥1,2()   

  1. 1.广东省科学院广州地理研究所,广东省遥感与地理信息系统应用重点实验室/广东省地理空间信息技术与应用公共实验室,广州 510070
    2.南方海洋科学与工程广东省实验室(广州),广州 510070
    3.中山大学新华学院资源与城乡规划系,广州 510520
    4.江苏师范大学地理测绘与城乡规划学院,徐州 221116
    5.广东工业大学环境科学与工程学院,广州 510006
  • 收稿日期:2020-02-10 修回日期:2020-06-30 出版日期:2020-11-28 发布日期:2021-01-28
  • 通讯作者: 张虹鸥 E-mail:wwwangcj@126.com;hozhang@gdas.ac.cn
  • 作者简介:王长建(1986- ),男,河南南阳人,博士,副研究员,硕士生导师,主要从事经济地理、能源地理与可持续发展研究。E-mail: wwwangcj@126.com
  • 基金资助:
    南方海洋科学与工程广东省实验室(广州)专项(GML2019ZD0301);广东省科技计划项目(2018B030324002);广东省科学院实施创新驱动发展能力建设专项(2016GDASRC-0101);广东省科学院实施创新驱动发展能力建设专项(2019GDASYL-0302001)

Evolving characteristics and driving mechanism of coal consumption in ChinaBased on the perspective of supply and demand

WANG Chang-jian1,2(), WANG Fei3, YE Yu-yao1,2, ZHANG Xin-lin4, SU Yong-xian1,2, JIANG Lu1,2, LI Zeng5, ZHANG Hong-ou1,2()   

  1. 1. Key Lab of Guangdong for Utilization of Remote Sensing and Geographical Information System, Guangdong Open Laboratory of Geospatial Information Technology and Application, Guangzhou Institute of Geography, Guangdong Academy of Sciences, Guangzhou 510070, China
    2. Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory (Guangzhou), Guangzhou 510070, China
    3. Department of Resources and Urban Planning, Xinhua College of Sun Yat-Sen University, Guangzhou 510520, China
    4. School of Geography, Geomatics and Planning, Jiangsu Normal University, Xuzhou 221116, Jiangsu, China
    5. School of Environmental Science and Engineering, Guangdong University of Technology, Guangzhou 510006, China
  • Received:2020-02-10 Revised:2020-06-30 Online:2020-11-28 Published:2021-01-28
  • Contact: Hong-ou ZHANG E-mail:wwwangcj@126.com;hozhang@gdas.ac.cn

摘要:

作为全球煤炭消费和碳排放最大的国家,中国煤炭消费的演变趋势及其驱动机制,一直是科研工作者和政策制定者比较关注的议题。以2013年中国煤炭消费总量28亿tce为关键时间节点,对比分析煤炭消费动力机制的差异性。通过分别构建侧重供给侧分析的LMDI模型和侧重需求侧分析的IO-SDA模型,以期揭示中国煤炭消费的演变特征及驱动机制。主要结论如下:(1)基于供给端的因素分解分析,中国的煤炭消费主要由经济增长效应、能源强度效应、产业结构效应和能源结构效应共同驱动。2013年以来的GDP增速放缓、产业结构和能源结构的深度调整,以及能源消费强度的持续降低是煤炭消费总量下降的关键所在。(2)基于需求侧的结构分解分析,中国的煤炭消费主要由固定资本形成总额、出口和城镇居民消费所影响。出口紧随固定资本形成总额,是煤炭消费增长的两大需求端驱动因素,但是,由出口诱发的煤炭消费量在2007年全球金融危机之后达到阶段性峰值。城镇居民消费在2017年超越出口,成为当前煤炭消费增长的第二大需求端驱动因素。(3)基于最终需求视角,分行业煤炭消费呈现出由“出口到固定资本形成总额再到城镇居民消费”拉动的变化特征,同时,行业发展的煤炭资源依赖性逐步降低。

关键词: 煤炭消费, LMDI, IO-SDA, 中国

Abstract:

China has been the world's largest energy consumer and carbon dioxide emitter. The evolution trend of China's coal consumption and its driving mechanism have always been a topic of concern to researchers and policy makers. Taking China's total coal consumption of 2.8 billion tons of standard coal in 2013 as the key time point, a comparative analysis of the differences in the dynamics of coal consumption mechanisms has been conducted. An extended LMDI model based on the classical IPAT identity and an input output-structural decomposition analysis (IO-SDA) model were adopted to determine the main driving factors for coal consumption in China. The impacts and influences of various factors on coal consumption were different in different development stages. China's coal consumption was mainly driven by the effects of economic growth, energy intensity, industrial structure and energy structure. The slowdown in GDP growth since the economy entered the "New Normal", the in-depth adjustment of the industrial structure and energy structure, and the continuous decline in energy consumption intensity were the key to the decline in total coal consumption since 2013. Based on the demand-side structural decomposition analysis, China's coal consumption was mainly affected by capital formation, exports, and urban household consumption. The embodied coal consumption of Chinese exports has peaked after the global financial crisis in 2007. Coal consumption induced by urban household consumption surpassed export-induced coal consumption in 2017, which became the second largest demand-side driver of China's total coal consumption growth. Based on the perspective of final demand, coal consumption by sectoral industry performed a changing feature of "driven by exports→driven by capital formation→driven by urban household consumption". The industry's coal resource dependence has gradually decreased. China's total coal consumption has entered a peak stage with the maximum value appearing in 2013.

Key words: coal consumption, LMDI, IO-SDA, China