中国跨境能源贸易及隐含能源流动对比——以“一带一路”能源合作为例

doi:10.31497/zrzyxb.20201109

自然资源学报 ›› 2020, Vol. 35 ›› Issue (11): 2674-2686.doi: 10.31497/zrzyxb.20201109

中国跨境能源贸易及隐含能源流动对比——以“一带一路”能源合作为例

韩梦瑶¹^,²^,³(), 熊焦¹^,²^,³^,⁴, 刘卫东¹^,²^,³()

1.中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所,北京 100101
2.中国科学院区域可持续发展分析与模拟重点实验室,北京 100101
3.中国科学院大学资源与环境学院,北京 100049
4.中央财经大学国际经济与贸易学院,北京100081

收稿日期:2020-01-10 修回日期:2020-04-30 出版日期:2020-11-28 发布日期:2021-01-28
通讯作者: 刘卫东 E-mail:hanmy@igsnrr.ac.cn;liuwd@igsnrr.ac.cn
作者简介:韩梦瑶（1989- ）,女,河北沧州人,博士,副研究员,研究方向为经济地理与区域发展。E-mail: hanmy@igsnrr.ac.cn
基金资助:
国家自然科学基金项目(41701135);国家自然科学基金项目(41871118);国家重点研发计划项目(2016YFA0602804);中国科学院战略性先导科技专项(XDA20010102)

China's cross-border energy relations between direct trade and embodied transfers: Based on "the Belt and Road" energy cooperation

HAN Meng-yao¹^,²^,³(), XIONG Jiao¹^,²^,³^,⁴, LIU Wei-dong¹^,²^,³()

1. Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, CAS, Beijing 100101, China
2. Key Laboratory of Regional Sustainable Development Modeling, CAS, Beijing 100101, China
3. College of Resources and Environment, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China
4. School of International Trade and Economics, Central University of Finance and Economics, Beijing 100081, China

Received:2020-01-10 Revised:2020-04-30 Online:2020-11-28 Published:2021-01-28
Contact: Wei-dong LIU E-mail:hanmy@igsnrr.ac.cn;liuwd@igsnrr.ac.cn

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

随着“一带一路”倡议的提出,能源互联互通成为中国对外合作的重要组成。以“一带一路”能源合作为切入点,从直接能源贸易和隐含能源流动的双重角度刻画中国跨境能源关联并开展对比研究,主要结论包括：（1）从直接能源角度,“一带一路”沿线沙特阿拉伯、俄罗斯等国家均为中国重要的直接能源进口国;（2）从隐含能源角度,中国为印度、新加坡、泰国等国家提供了大量的能源相关的商品服务;（3）中国与“一带一路”沿线国家直接能源贸易逆差明显,但隐含能源流动处于顺差地位;（4）综合考虑直接能源贸易及隐含能源流动,中国可以发挥不同类型能源关联的辐射带动作用,为中国与“一带一路”沿线国家能源互联互通与共建合作伙伴关系提供坚实基础。

关键词: “一带一路”, 能源贸易, 隐含能源, 跨境合作, 供需均衡

Abstract:

Along with the proposal of "the Belt and Road" Initiative, energy connectivity has become an essential component of China's overseas cooperation. In "the Belt and Road" energy cooperation, it is of great significance to depict and compare the cross-border relations from the dual perspectives of direct energy trade and embodied energy transfers. The main conclusions include: (1) From the direct perspective, countries such as Saudi Arabia and Russia are essential energy importers of China; (2) From the embodied perspective, China provides a large amount of energy-intensive products to countries such as India, Singapore and Thailand within "the Belt and Road" region; (3) China's direct energy trade with "the Belt and Road" region is in deficit, while the embodied energy transfer is in surplus; (4) Through synthetic consideration of direct energy trade and embodied energy transfers, China can further extend the radiating effects of different energy relations, and provide a solid foundation for energy connectivity and cooperation partnership between China and "the Belt and Road" countries.

Key words: "the Belt and Road" Initiative, energy trade, embodied energy, cross-border cooperation, supply demand balance

韩梦瑶, 熊焦, 刘卫东. 中国跨境能源贸易及隐含能源流动对比——以“一带一路”能源合作为例[J]. 自然资源学报, 2020, 35(11): 2674-2686.

HAN Meng-yao, XIONG Jiao, LIU Wei-dong. China's cross-border energy relations between direct trade and embodied transfers: Based on "the Belt and Road" energy cooperation[J]. JOURNAL OF NATURAL RESOURCES, 2020, 35(11): 2674-2686.

图/表 8

表1

投入产出结构"

投入		产出
		中间使用							最终使用			总产出
		区域1			…	区域m			区域1	…	区域m
		部门1	…	部门n	…	部门1	…	部门n	区域1	…	区域m
区域1	部门1	$z ij rs$							$f i rs$			$x i r$
	…
	部门n
…
区域m	部门1
	…
	部门n
增加值		$v i r$
能源投入		$d i r$

表1

图1

图2

表2

表3

图3

表4

表5

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区域	直接能源贸易		隐含能源流动		从贸易到消费
区域	进口	出口	进口	出口	进口	出口
中东欧	0	0	331.41	2976.49	331.41	2976.49
中亚	26798.14	0.02	314.49	205	27112.63	205.02
蒙俄	74721.00	0.38	1531.90	1569.80	76252.90	1570.18
南亚	0	449.82	1348.82	3758.24	1348.82	4208.06
东南亚	52032.01	1212.60	8951.81	9216.06	60983.82	10428.66
西亚中东	177101.86	454.47	1701.81	7151.97	178803.68	7606.44
合计	330653.01	2117.29	14180.24	24877.56	344833.26	26994.85
全球占比/%	60.47	27.18	31.35	19.87	58.72	20.30

区域	煤炭		石油		天然气
区域	进口	出口	进口	出口	进口	出口
东南亚	39706.91	4800.10	8954.40	4093.07	12334.31	1530.31
蒙俄	31088.39	746.75	43995.41	608.94	1169.66	211.25
南亚	307.24	1608.21	7326.23	2008.56	325.85	589.83
西亚中东	54.53	3246.28	172594.10	3313.67	6155.18	1050.41
中东欧	38.07	1381.85	145.56	1178.20	147.75	417.00
中亚	59.12	98.50	5,077.96	79.26	21975.93	27.44
合计	71254.27	11881.69	238093.67	11281.69	42108.68	3826.24
全球占比/%	41.82	19.70	66.14	20.87	68.25	20.57

贸易模式	贸易类型	贸易比例	典型国家	能源类型
直接能源驱动	能源进口	≥10	俄罗斯、沙特阿拉伯、印度尼西亚	石油为主
		≥10	俄罗斯、沙特阿拉伯、印度尼西亚	煤炭为主
		5~10	阿曼、伊拉克、伊朗、土库曼斯坦	石油为主
		5~10	阿曼、伊拉克、伊朗、土库曼斯坦	天然气
		<5	蒙古、科威特、阿联酋	煤炭为主
		<5	蒙古、科威特、阿联酋	石油为主
	能源出口	—	越南印度、阿联酋、伊朗	煤炭为主石油为主
隐含能源驱动	能源出口	≥10	印度	煤炭和石油为主
		5~10	新加坡、泰国、印度尼西亚、沙特阿拉伯、阿联酋、俄罗斯、越南
		<5	土耳其、波兰、菲律宾、马来西亚
	能源进口	≥10	泰国、新加坡、马拉西亚、俄罗斯	石油及天然气为主
		5~10	印度尼西亚、印度
		<5	越南、伊朗、菲律宾

类别		中国与“一带一路”沿线国家			中国与“一带一路”沿线以外国家
类别		直接能源贸易	隐含能源流动		直接能源贸易	隐含能源流动
总体贸易模式		逆差	顺差		逆差	顺差
贸易占比		占中国能源总进口比例的58.25%	占中国能源总出口比例的20.30%		占中国能源总进口比例的41.75%	占中国能源总出口比例的79.70%
贸易结构	进口	关联度高	关联度低		与部分国家关联度高	关联度低
贸易结构	出口	关联度低	关联度较高		关联度低		关联度高
能源类型		进口能源类型以石油为主,占比69.05%;出口能源类型主要为煤炭和石油,占比在40%左右			进口能源类型主要为煤炭和石油,占比分别为49.31%和40.10%;出口能源类型主要为煤炭和石油,占比均在40%左右
典型区域		东南亚：直接能源逆差,存在少量隐含能源顺差;南亚：直接能源与隐含能源均为顺差;西亚中东：直接能源呈现逆差,隐含能源呈现顺差		美国：直接能源大致均衡,隐含能源逆差明显;南美：直接能源呈现逆差,隐含能源呈现顺差;非洲：直接能源呈现逆差,隐含能源呈现顺差

中国跨境能源贸易及隐含能源流动对比——以“一带一路”能源合作为例

China's cross-border energy relations between direct trade and embodied transfers: Based on "the Belt and Road" energy cooperation

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