全球能源安全的格局演变与地缘博弈

doi:10.31497/zrzyxb.20201105

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

受经济全球化影响,国家能源安全问题的国际化趋势日益突出。21世纪以来,伴随世界多极化加速发展,世界能源安全格局演变特征及其驱动机制成为能源地缘政治研究的关键问题之一。基于这一认识,对2000年以来全球124个国家能源安全状态进行了系统评价,揭示了世界能源安全空间格局的演变特征及主要形成机制,并提出了未来能源地缘政治的博弈焦点。结果显示：（1）自21世纪初以来,全球能源安全格局演变整体上不断优化,但呈现出明显的阶段性特征,即2010年以来,全球能源安全格局优化趋势更为显著。（2）世界能源安全格局与国际地缘秩序区划基本吻合,即能源安全型国家集中分布在西欧和北美经济发达地区,较安全型国家主要分布在中欧、拉丁美洲以及亚洲高收入地区,过渡型国家主要分布在中东、东南欧以及东亚等能源体系亟需转型的地区,而较危险和危险型国家集中分布在南亚以及非洲经济欠发达地区。（3）近20年以来,世界能源安全水平显著提升主要得益于发达经济体能源使用安全维度的良好表现,而发展中国家由于创新能力较低、生产力较落后、居民可支配收入较少,其能源安全水平提升空间较小。（4）当前及今后一段时期内,全球能源安全格局将受到中美关系变化的冲击、能源转型的胁迫以及政治环境不确定性的影响。

关键词: 能源安全, 格局演变, 地缘博弈, 全球

Abstract:

Under the background of economic globalization, the internationalization of national energy security issues has become increasingly prominent. Since the beginning of the 21st century, along with the acceleration of world multi-polarization, the study on the evolution characteristics of global energy security's pattern and its driving mechanism has become one of the key issues in the field of energy geopolitics. Based on this understanding, this paper systematically evaluates the energy security status of 124 countries since 2000, reveals the evolution characteristics and its mechanism, and identifies the major geopolitical threats. The results show that: (1) Since the beginning of the 21st century, the evolution of the global energy security pattern has been continuously optimized, but it has shown obvious phase characteristics. Since 2010, the optimization trend has become more significant. (2) The global energy security pattern is basically consistent with the international order, that is, energy-safe countries are concentrated in economically developed regions of Western Europe and North America, and the relatively safe countries are mainly distributed in Central Europe, Latin America, and high-income regions in Asia. The countries with transitional energy system are mainly distributed in the developing regions of Middle East, Southeast Europe, and East Asia, while countries with dangerous or relatively dangerous energy system are economically underdeveloped regions in Africa and South Asia. (3) In the past 20 years, the world's energy security level has improved significantly, which is mainly driven by climate-friendly green technologies and the continuous downturn in oil price. For this reason, the level of energy security in developed economies has increased significantly. However, due to the low innovation capacity, backward productivity, and low disposable income of residents, developing countries have less room for improvement in energy security. (4) In the context of the rise of populism, the intensification of trade barriers and the strategic contraction of the United States in the Middle East, the global energy security pattern in the future will be affected by the changes in China-US relation, the increasing urgency to promoting the energy transition, and the polarized political climate.

Key words: energy security, pattern evolution, geopolitical game, global scale

苏俊, 王永洵, 王强. 全球能源安全的格局演变与地缘博弈[J]. 自然资源学报, 2020, 35(11): 2613-2628.

SU Jun, WANG Yong-xun, WANG Qiang. Pattern evolution of global energy security and the geopolitical game[J]. JOURNAL OF NATURAL RESOURCES, 2020, 35(11): 2613-2628.

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目标层	维度层	指标层	单位	权重/%		说明
目标层	维度层	指标层	单位	维度层	指标层	说明
能源安全综合指数	供应维度	一次能源生产量与消费量之比	—	35	7	供应维度用以描述和评价区域能源系统应对能源供给—需求关系失调的能力
		能源供应多样性系数	—		7
		电力多样性系数	—		7
		原油储备量	亿桶		7
		天然气储备量	万亿立方英尺		7
	普惠维度	通电率	%	18	6	普惠维度用以表征能源系统满足区域生产、生活用能需求的综合能力
		汽油零售价格	美元/升		6
		非固态燃料获得率	%		6
	使用维度	化石能源所占比例	%	32	8	使用维度用以测度区域能源使用的环境效应
		可再生能源发电所占比例	%		8
		碳排放因子	t/t油当量		8
		能源效率	10³美元/t油当量（已转换为2011年不变价）		8
	发展环境	政治稳定性	—	15	2	发展环境主要是指区域能源发展的社会、政治与经济环境,其优劣程度显著影响着国家在能源市场中的话语权,以及本地能源政策制定与能源部门投资,继而影响着自身能源安全水平
		管理水平	—		2
		政府效率	—		2
		法律角色	—		2
		腐败控制	—		2
		人均GDP	美元（已转换为2011年不变价）		5