关键词: 碳排放, LMDI分解方法, 产业结构, LEAP模型

Abstract:

In the context of global warming, as an industrial province, Shandong possesses the top most total amount of carbon emissions in the country. Therefore, how to control and reduce carbon emissions by transfer the mode and adjust the structure has been the increasingly urgent major issue in Shandong Province. LMDI decomposition method was used for quantitative analysis of the effect of adjustment of industrial structure on 1994-2010 carbon emissions in Shandong Province. On this basis, contribution of adjustment of the structure on carbon emissions before 2030 was predicted combined with LEAP model. There were three conclusions. Firstly, economic growth was the main cause of increasing water pollutant emissions; changes of industrial structure drove in the growth of pollutants emissions, but not the most important factor; technical efficiency was the main reason for reducing pollutants emissions. Industrial structure effect was 3.5139 million tons of standard coal from 1994 to 2010; the contribution to the growth of carbon emissions was 3.91%. Secondly, CO₂ emissions has a certain relationship with the variety of industrial proportion, the proportion of industry increased or decreased one percent, then CO₂ emissions will increase or reduce 786-837 thousand tons of standard coal. Lastly, in the baseline scenario and low-carbon scenarios, the rate of contribution to the growth of the industrial structure adjustment will be about -5.3% and -10.4% respectively. This shows that the adjustment of the industrial structure will reduce carbon emissions, which is contrary to the situation that the changes in the industrial structure increased carbon emissions.

Key words: carbon emissions, LEAP model, LMDI decomposition, industrial structure