气候变化对澜沧江-湄公河上中游径流的影响研究

doi:10.11849/zrzyxb.2013.09.012

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 将区域气候模式RegCM3与水循环模拟模型WACM进行单向耦合,对澜沧江-湄公河流域未来气候变化和流域上中游主要控制水文站径流响应进行了模拟和分析。区域气候预估表明,相对于现状(1980—2009年),A1B情景下未来(2010—2039年)流域年平均温度和降水均有增加趋势,分别增加了0.65 ℃和1.87%,但降水增加不明显;流域北部温度增幅比南部明显,而降水区域差异较大,变化较为复杂。径流模拟结果表明,未来气候变化情景下,清盛和琅勃拉邦站多年平均径流量与天然情景相比均有减少趋势,分别减少了1.23%和3.69%,但变化不明显;未来径流年际变化呈不显著的减少趋势,而温度变化对径流影响作用要强于降水;未来春季和夏季(3—6月)径流增减相对明显,局部区域有洪涝和水文干旱的风险,而其它月份径流变化不显著。

关键词: 区域气候模式(RegCM3), 澜沧江-湄公河上中游, 陆气耦合, 气候变化, 径流模拟, WACM模型

Abstract: Regional climate change and runoff response in the upper and middle reaches of the Lancang-Mekong River Basin were simulated by basin water cycle model WACM (Water resources Allocation and Cycle Model) and regional climate model (RegCM3) coupled with one-way mode. The projected results of regional climate change show that the temperature and precipitation in future (2010-2039) under SRES A1B scenario increases by 0.65 ℃ and 1.87% respectively relative to current status (1980-2009), while the precipitation increase is insignificant. The temperature in northern part of the basin changes more obviously than that in the southern part. The precipitation changes are relatively complicated in different regions. Furthermore, results of runoff simulation indicate that the runoff at Chiang Saen and Luang Prabang hydrologic stations under future climate change scenario decreases by 1.23% and 3.69% respectively, and the variation is insignificant. The changes of inter-annual runoff present a decreasing trend slightly, and the role of temperature on runoff variations is stronger than precipitation. The distribution of monthly runoff within a year is uneven in spring and summer (from March to June), it may cause the floods and hydrologic droughts in local regions, however, the runoff variations are not obvious in the rest months.

Key words: land-atmosphere coupling, upper and middle reaches of Lancang-Mekong River, climate change, runoff simulation, Regional climate model (RegCM3), WACM model

中图分类号:

P333

吴迪, 赵勇, 裴源生, 毕彦杰. 气候变化对澜沧江-湄公河上中游径流的影响研究[J]. 自然资源学报, 2013, 28(9): 1569-1582.

WU Di, ZHAO Yong, PEI Yuan-sheng, BI Yan-jie. ClimateChange and Its Effects on Runoff in Upper and Middle Reaches of Lancang-Mekong River[J]. JOURNAL OF NATURAL RESOURCES, 2013, 28(9): 1569-1582.

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