自然资源学报 ›› 1999, Vol. 14 ›› Issue (3): 193-199.doi: 10.11849/zrzyxb.1999.03.001

• 论文 •    下一篇

人口增长胁迫下的全球土地利用变化研究

谢高地, 成升魁, 丁贤忠   

  1. 中国科学院自然资源综合考察委员会, 北京 100101
  • 收稿日期:1998-06-25 修回日期:1998-12-08 出版日期:1999-09-25 发布日期:1999-09-25
  • 作者简介:谢高地,男,1962年10月生,农业与环境安全博士,中国科学院自然资源综合考察委员会副研究员,从 事自然资源与环境领域的研究工作,先后在国内外学术刊物上发表有关自然资源、农业与环境方面的论文 20余篇,出版有《环境研究:中国宁夏黄河冲积平原的土壤盐化与碱化》专著。
  • 基金资助:

    国家“九五”科技攻关项目

A STUDY ON GLOBAL LAND USE CHANGE UNDER THE PRESSURE OF POPULATION GROWTH

XIE Gao di, CHENG Sheng kui, DING Xian zhong   

  1. Commission for Integrated Survey of Natural Resources, CAS, Beijing 100101
  • Received:1998-06-25 Revised:1998-12-08 Online:1999-09-25 Published:1999-09-25

摘要: 人口和耕地、草地、森林4个因子构成一个理论上以人为中心的全球人地关系系统,在这个系统中,人口总量的变动势必引起耕地、草地和森林面积的数量增减和相互转化。该文构建了一个简单的人—地关系平衡模型,对1970~1995年和未来50年全球人口增长胁迫下土地利用变化进行了分析。结果表明:①全球25年来,在人口增长了546%的情况下,耕地面积和草地面积并没有大幅度增减。维持相对稳定的机制是以扩大灌溉面积和大量投入化肥为标志的农业技术进步使土地生产率提高了639%,从而抵消了人口增长胁迫耕地面积增加、草地和森林面积相应减少的压力。②未来50年当中,人口将增加74%,达到100×10,人均耕地、草场和森林面积将分别减少到低于013hm、034hm和037hm,在此情况下,由于将耕地面积扩大74%不大可能,现有全球土地利用(覆盖)格局能否保持稳定的关键是依靠农业技术进步使耕地生产率提高74%以上。③由于在原有维持土地覆盖变化相对稳定的机制中,扩大灌溉面积和大量投入化肥在未来难以继续发挥作用以提高土地生产率,假定现有耕地面积保持不变,现有耕地生产率水平不变,到2050年,耕地仍能养活比届时地球上预测生存人口还

关键词: 人口, 土地利用, 全球

Abstract: Theoretically,the 4 factors of population,cultivated land,grassland and forest form the global man land interaction system centering around man.In this system changes of population undoubtedly cause the increase or decrease as well as mutual transformation of cultivated land,grassland and forest.A man land equilibrium model was built in the study.Based on the model,the authors have analyzed the global land use changes in 1970~1995 and in the future 50 years.Results indicated: (a)Du ring 1970~1995,population increased by 54 6%,but no sharp decrease in cultivated land and grassland have been found.Reasons for this relative stable equilibrium is that the improved agricultural technology,which is marked by irrigated area expansion and a large amount of chemical fertilizer application,leads to the rise of cultivated land productivity to 63 9%,and offsets the cultivated land increase,grassland and forest decrease under the pressure of population growth. (b)In the future 50 years,population will reach 100×108,an increase of 74%,and per capita available cultivated land,grassland and forest will decrease to below 0 13ha,0 34ha,and 0.37ha respectively.However,it is impossible to expand cultivated land by 74%,as the key to sustain current global stable land cover is to raise cultivated land productivity to over 74%,by relying on improved agricultural technology.(c)Amongst the former mechanisms to sustaining land use change relative stable,it will be difficult to improve land productivity through cultivated land expansion and a large amount of chemical ferti lizer application.Assuming both the current cultivated land area and productivity maintain the same level,the current cultivated land can still feed the projected global population in 2050 which is 55×108 more than the present level.Even if the natural disasters cause cultivated land productivity a drop of 0 99t/ha or cultivated land area 4 77×108ha, the cultivated land can still provide enough food to feed the global po pulation of 100×108.That means the man land system will not get collapsed in the next 50 years.The reduction of grassland and forest may be unavertible.

Key words: population, land use, globe

中图分类号: 

  • G304