中国的城镇化长期是建立在“增长模式”下的顶层设计,城市增长与空间扩张是地理学者与规划政策界关注的经典命题。随着全球发展格局变化及中国“新常态”转型的来临,以中西部中小城市人口向东部迁移导致的发展放缓或停滞,以东北城市为代表的“局部收缩”已初见端倪,而在金融危机后,东部的工业城市也出现了部分“收缩”的空间。“收缩”表现为人口外流、GDP和地方财政增长乏力乃至城市空间衰败。如何科学辩证地认识城市增长、空间扩张与局部收缩的发生和转化机制,如何在慢增长或逆增长环境下实现城市可持续发展,是未来中国城镇化研究的重大挑战,也是地理、规划和相关学科学者亟需重点关注和研究的新命题。本期笔谈邀请了来自人文地理、城市规划、区域经济和公共管理等学科领域的学者就城市收缩的科学界定、识别方法以及后增长时代下中国城市可持续发展的规划设计响应路径等话题开展学术争鸣与讨论。

As a top-down design, China's urbanization is building upon a "growth oriented model". In this sense, scholars and policy makers in China are focusing more on urban growth and spatial expansion. Recently, China has entered a period of "New Normal" (Xin Chang Tai") and faced the supply side reform. Urban shrinkage in terms of population has also emerged in Chinese cities. Especially, some mining industry cities in Northeast China have been losing their population and are also associating with a weak GDP/local fiscal growth rate. As one of the major challenges that China may be confronted with in the new-type urbanization, urban shrinkage should be regarded as an important issue addressed by geographers. Hereby we invited concerning scholars from the area of human-economic geography, urban-rural planning, regional science and public policy in this debate to conduct academic discussion towards urban shrinkage in China, aiming to demonstrate their up-to-date understandings upon emerging shrinking cities in China for sustainable development from various perspectives.

收缩型城市是中国城镇化、空间规划与城市治理的全新命题。论文在简要梳理收缩型城市相关文献的基础上总结了当前收缩型城市研究在中国的认知误区。因人口统计口径不一致、划分标准不可比、数量属性与地域空间脱节等原因给科学清晰的识别收缩型城市提出了挑战。在周一星、史育龙（1995）建议的基础上,论文提出了基于实体地域对比与行政地域互验来分析全国城市人口的增减变化及收缩型城市的甄别框架,测算表明：全国有114个建制市2010年的“城人口”规模低于2000年“市人口”规模,但由于2000年“市人口”的偏大统计以及2010年“城人口”存在的“个别水分”,这些城市也未必就全是“收缩型城市”;在剔除乡村人口较高的“城市型政区”后,全国2000年和2010年人口处于净流出状态的建制市分别为56个和75个。论文认为：中国应尽快建立城市实体地域概念,推进城市化区域协同统计制度;要构建“时空对齐”的全国常住人口地理信息系统数据库并综合考虑各地行政区划建制差异,持续推进城乡人口的精准划分。

While China′s urbanization has been characterized by 'growth-oriented' development models, the recent literature has highlighted the emergence of urban shrinkage in China, i.e., cities and regions that endure sustained population losses. This is especially the case for some resource-based cities in Northeast and North China, which have been losing their population and suffering from stagnant and even negative local GDP growth. Shrinking cities is a new phenomenon for research in the areas of population-resources-environments, spatial planning and urban governance in China. Based on a brief review of related literature, this paper summarizes some misunderstandings in the research of shrinking cities in China. It is a challenge to identify shrinking cities scientifically because of different demographies, different classification standards and disconnection between attributes data and geographic units. Extending from the suggestion from Zhou and Shi (1995), this paper, based on urban physical areas comparison and urban administrative areas test, analyzes the changes of China′s urban population and proposes a framework to identify the shrinking cities. The results show that there are 114 designated cities, in which the population size of the "Chengrenkou" (residential population in the built-up area) in 2010 was smaller than that of the "Shirenkou" (residential population in the administrative area) in 2000. However, due to a larger "Shirenkou" size in 2000 in statistics than in actual situation, and also several inflated figures of "Chengrenkou" in 2010, the exact number of "shrinking cities" is less than 114. After excluding "urban administrative areas" with a larger rural population, 56 cities and 75 cities were in net outflow in 2000 and 2010, respectively. The results are highly policy-relevant, therefore we should adjust future policies regarding urban shrinkage management. Finally, this paper argues that China should establish the concept of urban physical areas and promote the regional collaborative statistical system of urbanization. And it is also necessary to build a "spatio-temporal aligned" geographic information system database of China's resident population and take the regional differences in the administrative divisions into account in order to continuously promote the accurate division of urban and rural population.

资源型城市是一类具有特殊性质的城市,资源型城市转型与可持续发展是区域产业开发、区域经济和城市发展研究的重要内容,自2001年国家从阜新市开始资源型城市转型试点工作以来,对全国资源型城市的准确识别与类型划分一直是地理学界探讨的重点问题之一。本文在借鉴前人研究的基础上,运用城市职能分类的理论与方法,对资源型城市识别与分类的指标与阈值进行了系统分析,识别出全国262座资源型城市。同时,本文从资源型城市发展程度和资源型城市自身的问题出发,根据资源型城市发展的总体导向,结合资源型城市实际特点,尝试建立提出了以资源保障能力和可持续发展能力两个指标评价为基础的资源型城市综合分类框架,构建了资源型城市评价分类模型,将识别出的262座资源型城市分为成长型城市、成熟型城市、衰退型城市、再生型城市4类,并分析了不同类别城市的概念内涵与差异性特征。该研究成果很好的支撑了由国务院发布的《全国资源型城市可持续发展规划》对资源型城市的范围与类别的划定,并成为规划分类引导政策制定的基础。

Resource-based cities refer to the type of cities that exploit and process natural resources, such as minerals and forests in the region. The transformation and sustainable development of resource-based cities is an important part of the research on regional industrial development, regional economy and urban development. Since China started the pilot reform of resource-based cities in Fuxin in 2001, the accurate definition and classification of resource-based cities in China has been one of the focuses of academic discussion. This paper systematically analyzes the historical criteria of the definition and classification of resource-based cities. Based on the previous experiences and using the theory and method of urban function classification, this paper proposes a set of methods to identify resource-based cities. Then, based on the development of resource-based cities and their actual characteristics, this paper tries to establish a comprehensive classification framework for resource-based cities by two kinds of evaluation which are based on resources support ability and sustainable development ability. A total of 262 resource-based cities are divided into 4 types, nemely growth type, maturity type, recession type and regeneration type. The paper also analyzes the different characteristics of different types of cities. This result supports the delineation of the scope and categories of resource-based cities in the "National Sustainable Development Plan for Resource-based Cities" promulgated by the State Council and has become the basis for targeted guidance and policy support.

资源型城市作为一类特殊城市,发展过程具有明显的阶段性特征。本文以灯光影像等数据为基础,采用门槛面板模型、非参数估计等方法,从城市空间结构演化角度,对资源型城市发展阶段进行定量划分,并分析了不同发展阶段中心城区空间集聚对城市经济增长、城市转型的差异性特征,揭示了资源型产业对城市空间结构演变的作用以及资源型城市转型关键时间节点和政策着力点。结果表明：资源型城市空间相对分散,但不同资源类型城市之间存在较大差异;采掘业从业人员占比1.9%和31.0%可以作为资源型城市不同发展阶段的重要标志性指标;不同发展阶段中,社会经济要素在中心城区的集聚程度与城市经济增长的相关关系明显不同,成熟发展期成为资源型城市转型发展的重要转折期。

Resource-based cities refer to the cities where the exploiting and processing of natural resources, such as minerals and forests, dominate industrial development. This special type of city is obviously staged during its development. From a new perspective of urban spatial structure, this paper quantitatively splits the development stages of resource-based cities based on the data of night lights images and uses the methods, such as the threshold panel model and non-parametric estimation. To delve into the impacts of resource-based industries on the evolution of urban spatial structure, as well as the timing of transformation policy design, different effects of the spatial agglomeration of central urban areas on urban growth and transformation by development stages are also analyzed in this paper. The results suggest that: the resource-based cities are relatively internally fragmented with noticeable differences among resource types and individuals, such as oil and gas resource type, and ferrous metal resource type. This paper attempts to adopt the proportion of mining employees as the indicator. Some 1.9% and 31.0% can act as the tipping points to divide different development stages of resource-based cities. The resource-based cities are split into four stages of development given two threshold values. In various stages of development, the correlation between the concentration of social and economic factors in the central urban area and the urban economic growth is noticeably different. Furthermore, 'the mature stage' has acted as a critical turning phase in the transformation of resource-based cities.

中国快速城镇化过程中已经出现了城市增长与收缩并存的现象，其中收缩型城市中又以资源型城市较为典型。研究城市增长与收缩过程及其影响因素有助于优化资源型城市发展路径以及制定合理的规划策略。本研究以黑龙江省鸡西市、鹤岗市、双鸭山市、七台河市为研究案例，从城市比较研究的思路入手，利用均方差决策法、偏最小二乘法等方法定量化表征4市城市增长与收缩过程并分析其影响因素。结果表明：① 4市并不是处于持续收缩的状态，而是增长与收缩交替进行。② 从城市增长与收缩过程的影响因素方面看，鸡西市主要受居民收入与消费情况影响，鹤岗市主要受产业及投资影响，双鸭山市主要受制造业和外部投资影响，七台河市主要受煤炭产量影响。③ 从差异性角度分析，城市增长与收缩过程以及影响因素的差异主要由替代产业选择差异、城市间竞争、外部性影响所决定。

In the process of rapid urbanization in China, there has been the coexistence of urban growth and shrinkage, among which resource-based cities are more typical. The research on the process and influence mechanism of urban growth and shrinkage is helpful to optimize the development path of resource-based cities and the appropriate planning response. In this paper, we take Jixi City, Hegang City, Shuangyashan City and Qitaihe City in Heilongjiang Province as case cities. From the idea of urban comparative study, the process of urban growth and shrinkage of the four cities is quantitatively characterized and its factors are analyzed by means of mean square decision-making method and partial least square method. The advantage of using mean square decision-making is to avoid errors of subjective evaluation. The partial least square method has gathered the advantages of PCA, correlation analysis and MLR method. The aim to use PLS here is to solve the multicollinearity problem of variables. The results show that: 1) The four cities are not in a state of continuous shrinkage, but the growth and shrinkage alternately. This result is in line with the characteristic that the development of mining cities change with the mining market. 2) From the perspective of factors of urban growth and shrinkage process, Jixi City is mainly affected by residents’ income and consumption, Hegang City is mainly affected by industry and investment, Shuangyashan City is mainly affected by the manufacturing industry and investment, and Qitaihe City is mainly affected by coal production. The four cities have different influential factors mainly in aspects of social development, external investment, and industrial transformation. In addition, each factors has different influencing extend on different cities. Therefore, we will see that cities with similar resource endowment could have different influential factors on urban growth or shrinkage. 3) From the perspective of difference, the process of urban growth and shrinkage and the difference of influence mechanism are mainly determined by the difference of alternative industry selection, the competition between cities, and the external influence and other factors.

Resource-based cities are of great concern in China. Little literature has been published on the understanding of their functions. This paper attempts to define five functional categories of these cities, most of which are dependent on mining to varying degrees. City function features are composed of four elements, i.e., to superior function, specialised sectors of the city, functional intensity and functional scale. The first element is defined as a ratio of the number of mining employees to that of industrial employees. The other three are defined after Zhou Yixing and Sun Zexing (1997). The category of samples are modified after Liu Yungang (2006). Five functional types of cities are identified, i.e., super specialized mining cities, multiplex mining cities, super specialized industrial cities, multiplex industrial cities and trade cities. These represent progressive functional diversification of the resource-based city. Although cities have shown a trend towards diversification, most remain within their original categories, and functional transition appears to be a long-term process.

It has been widely acknowledged amongest domestic scholars that resources-based cities on a whole are located in remote and peripheral areas, which has become a major obstacle to successful transformation of these cities to sustainable development. Yet little attention has so far been given to quantitatively estimate whether these resources-based cities suffered from being remote and peripheral location, and how far. In this paper, we use 78 resources-exhausted cities identified by the State Council as the case cities to evaluate the location condition of resources-exhausted cities under different resources types and regions, based on the calculation method of spatial distance and time distance. The distance is how far these resources-exhausted cities are from the corresponding provincial capital cities and three regional central cities (Beijing, Shanghai, and Guangzhou) to which are closely linked resources-exhausted cities. The research findings include that: (1) From the perspective of overall sample cities, the location of resources-exhausted city is really remote. In the term of spatial distance, the location remoteness degree α₁ is 1.36 (relative to the provincial capital city) and β₁ is 1.14 (relative to regional center city), and in the term of of time distance, the location remoteness degree α₂ = 1.65 (relative to provincial capital city) and β₂ = 1.16 (relative to regional central city). (2) From the perspective of classification, location remoteness degrees of resources-exhausted cities show significant differences among different provinces and different resource types. The location remoteness degrees of resources-exhausted cities located in Western China and forestry-based cities are the largest. (3) From an integrated analysis of spatial distance and time distance, the number of resources-exhausted cities whose locations are very remote, namely α > 1.5 ∩ β > 1.5, respectively is 18 and 23, accounting for 23.1% and 29.5% of the total resouces-exhausted cities. The number of resources-exhausted cities whose location remoteness degrees are α ≤ 1.0 ∩ β ≤ 1.0, is 30 and 35 respectively, accounting for 38.5% and 44.9% of the total in China.

The development of coal-mining cities in Northeast China is the hot topic which the country pays attention to. The article carries out the vulnerability appraisal of coal-mining cities in Northeast China from three levels of natural system, economic system, social system and from three description angles of exposure, sensitivity, and resilience. In 2000, Hegang city belongs to relatively low vulnerability district, and other coal-mining cities belong to intermediate ones. In 2005, all the coal-mining cities belong to intermediate vulnerability districts, in which vulnerability indexes in Jixi and Qitaihe cities are nearly 0.5701 and 0.5568, respectively. At the same time, it points out the vulnerability phenomenon, the approach to reduce vulnerability and diagnoses the vulnerability of natural system, economic system and social system, as well as the existing problems. Vulnerability of natural system is presented in ecological environment deterioration, water pollution, air pollution and forest resource destruction. Culture and community employment structure in coal-mining cities closely relate to urban economic structure and shortage of labor skills of mining industry, which have aggravated the unemployment and the difficulty of re-employment. Besides, the high pressure causes urban poverty and disadvantaged groups to get jobs, which have caused social vulnerability. Some other problems may cause the economic vulnerability, such as the unreasonable resource utilization, unreasonable productivity distribution and single industrial structure, Regional natural system, economic system and society system affect each other. This article discusses the coupling mechanism from the aspects of ecology, humanity and society. The intrinsic agents which affect the coal-mining cities are the limited resources and the changed exploitation capacity, and they are the key aspects to restrict vulnerability of human-land system. Then some models are put forward to reduce vulnerability, such as comprehensive development model, anticipation cultivation model, connection development model and harmonious society model. Finally, it puts forward some sustainable development countermeasures which provide the valuable reference for the reforming, ecology construction and community development of coal-mining cities. Besides, it is suggested that the development model could be built for coal-mining cities specifically in different development stages and vulnerability phenomenon.

基于人口变化的视角,考察东莞城镇人口增长与收缩所出现的结构性变化,分析金融危机前后东莞城镇人口在规模数量、年龄结构、性别结构、学历结构,以及不同类型增长城镇与收缩城镇的产业经济和空间格局特征,并建立面板回归模型探讨影响城镇人口增长与收缩的因素和机制。研究表明,东莞总人口规模趋于波动增长的同时,人口结构呈现出外来人口市民化加快、男女性别失衡加剧、人口年轻化与高学历化的转变;增长类型城镇产业结构以先进制造业和现代服务业为主,而收缩类型城镇则面临传统加工制造业的转型升级问题;空间上呈现“北增长-南收缩”的格局,形成了中部增长、西北部和东南部收缩的城镇集中片区;而宏观经济波动、产业转型升级、科技创新投入、地方发展方式影响着东莞城镇人口的增长与收缩。

After the financial crisis in 2008, a new phenomenon “shrinkage” has appeared in Dongguan’s urban area, which manifested population size reducing in its towns. Although the economic recovery rapidly in the post-crisis period, the spatial separation of population growth and shrinkage is aggravating, accompanied by a series of changes in the demographic structure. Base on the perspective of demographic change, this article makes an in-depth analysis of the growth and shrinkage in Dongguan by using the Social Security Registration data. We summarize the characteristic of demographic changes in the size, age, gender and education after the financial crisis, and industrial economic structure of different towns. Moreover, we construct a panel regression model for exploring the factors and mechanisms that affect urban population growth and shrinkage. The result shows: 1) While the population size of Dongguan tends to growing in fluctuation, the population structure shows trends for migrant population localization, male and female more imbalance, younger and highly educated population. 2) Advanced manufacturing and modern service industries to promote city growing, and outward processing and manufacturing transformation failure will affect the city shrinking. 3) The spatial distribution shows the "growing in the north, shrinking in the south", forming a concentrated area where the central area growing, the northwest area and the southeastern area are shrinking. 4) Macroeconomic fluctuation, industrial transformation, technological innovation inputs and local development pathway have significant impacts on demographic growth and shrinkage in Dongguan.

以中国116个资源型城市为分析对象,从路径依赖、脆弱性和路径创造三个方面分析资源型城市经济演化的特点与路径分异,引入计量模型考察其对资源型城市经济增长与转型的作用,并分析其影响因素。研究发现：① 资源型城市的路径依赖水平北方较高,北方和内陆的脆弱性整体更高,路径创造水平由沿海向内陆递减。黑、晋、陕、甘和云、贵、川等地资源型城市的脆弱性较高,路径创造水平较低。② 中国资源型城市的演化路径可以划分为趋向锁定、趋向解锁、随机变化三种类型。③ 路径依赖、脆弱性和路径创造在不同宏观经济环境下对资源型城市经济增长和转型的作用不同,在宏观经济高速扩张时期,脆弱性有利于增长,路径创造能力强的城市反而增速较慢;而进入经济新常态阶段,路径依赖和脆弱性对增长的阻碍作用显现。④ 路径依赖和路径创造水平深受人口规模、国有企业比例的影响,脆弱性水平主要和人口规模有关。采矿业比例会影响资源类产业的路径创造,而对外开放水平则影响非资源类产业的路径创造。北方、内陆和煤炭型城市更易于形成高路径依赖。⑤ 提高人口集聚规模,降低国有企业比例,是降低路径依赖、提高路径创造水平的关键,人口集聚和扩大对外开放则分别有利于脆弱性的下降和路径创造能力的提升,应针对不同区域、资源类型和演化路径的资源型城市,制定差异化和精准的政策措施。

Taking 116 Chinese resource-dependent cities as research objects, this paper analyzes the economic evolution characteristics and path differentiation of resource-dependent cities from three aspects of path dependence, vulnerability and path creation. The econometric model is adopted to study the roles of the three aspects on economic growth and structure transition of resource-dependent cities, and the factors that affect the three aspects are also analyzed. The results are shown as follows: (1) Resource-dependent cities in northern China are of higher path dependence. Vulnerability of north and inland areas is generally higher, while path creation ability decreases from the coast to the inland. Some cities are of higher vulnerability and lower path creation, such as those of Heilongjiang, Shanxi, Shaanxi, Gansu, Yunnan, Guizhou and Sichuan. (2) Evolution paths of China's resource-dependent cities can be divided into three types: the tendency to be lock-in, the tendency to unlock and random variation. (3)The effects of path dependence, vulnerability and path creation on economic growth and transition will differ under different macroeconomic circumstances: vulnerability is conducive to economic growth when macro-economy expands rapidly, and cities with strong path creativity are slower to grow. When Chinese economy enters the new normal stage, it presents that the path dependence and vulnerability would hinder the economic growth. (4) Path dependence and path creation are greatly affected by population scale and the proportion of state-owned enterprises. The level of vulnerability is mainly related to population agglomeration. The proportion of mining industry affects the path creation of resource-dependent industry, while the openness degree affects the path creation of non-resource industry. The north, inland and coal-dependent cities are prone to be of high path dependence. (5) The key of reducing path dependence and improving path creation is to upgrade population scale and decrease the proportion of state-owned enterprises. Population agglomeration and opening to the outside world are conducive to the decline of vulnerability and the promotion of path creativity. Different and targeted policies and measures should be implemented by taking into account the regions, resource types and evolutionary paths of resource-dependent cities.

基于城镇收缩视角认识东北三省人口流失与经济衰退问题,对深化中国老工业基地转型理论具有重要意义。本文以东北三省县级市（县）为研究对象,利用ArcGIS与空间计量方法,分析增长与收缩城镇的特征与空间关系,研究收缩城镇的职能差异和空间分布格局,探讨区域城镇收缩的形成机制与应对措施。结果显示：2000年以来,东北三省出现了明显的城镇增长与收缩分异现象,42.85%的县（市）发生城镇收缩问题;增长型城镇制造业与服务业日益高级化;收缩型城镇新型产业发展与产业结构升级缓慢,经济竞争力不断弱化;增长与收缩城镇存在密切的空间关联,增长型城镇一方面通过集聚效应不断吸取收缩城镇的人口、资本等生产要素,另一方面通过传统产业的空间转移加重收缩型城镇的经济转型压力;城镇收缩程度由北至南呈高、低起伏状变化,由东至西呈先增强,后减弱的变化态势,并且加工型城镇收缩程度最高,工矿型城镇次之,旅游与口岸型城镇相对较低;城镇收缩的影响因素包括公共服务设施发展滞后、工业发展与市场需求错位、产业结构关联度低、人口结构老龄化和区域中心地的集聚效应5个方面,且作用强度依次增强。依据经济长波理论与地方发展实际,东北三省未来将经历长期的城镇收缩过程。主动适应收缩,通过城镇精明收缩,对人口与经济要素进行优化重组,是东北三省未来发展应做出的战略选择。

Understanding the population loss and economic decline in the three provinces of Northeast China from a perspective of urban shrinkage is of great significance to deepening the transformation theory of China's old industrial bases. The main results can be summarized as follows. Since 2000, obvious differences in urban growth and shrinkage have occurred in Northeast China. Some 42.85% of cities showed an urban shrinkage. The manufacturing and service industries in cities of urban growth (growing cities) are increasingly advanced, while the development of new pattern industries and industrial structure upgrading are slow in cities of urban shrinkage (shrinking cities) and the economic competitiveness of these shrinking cities is weakening. There is a close spatial correlation between growing and shrinking cities. On the one hand, growing cities continuously absorb the production factors such as population and capital of shrinking cities through the agglomeration effect, and on the other hand, they increase the pressure of economic transformation of shrinking cities through the spatial transfer of traditional industries. The shrinkage degree varies from high to low from north to south, and shows a trend of 'first strengthening, then weakening' from east to west. The processing cities have the highest shrinkage degree, followed by industrial and mining cities, and the tourism and port cities have a relatively low shrinkage degree. The factors influencing urban shrinkage include the development lag of public service facilities, the misalignment of industrial development and market demand, the low correlation degree of industrial structure, the aging of population structure, and the agglomeration effect of regional central places, their intensity of action enhancing in turn. According to the economic long wave theory and local circumstances, Northeast China will experience a long-term urban shrinkage in the future. It should be a strategic choice to develop this region to actively adapt to the shrinkage, and optimize and reorganize population and economic factors through smart urban shrinkage.

理清生态创新对资源型城市产业结构和工业绿色效率的影响,对资源型城市实现经济转型具有重要意义。本文以中国115个资源型城市为例,通过测算这些城市的产业结构高级度、工业绿色效率,构建回归模型,实证分析了生态创新对不同发展阶段资源型城市产业结构升级和工业绿色效率提升的影响。研究发现：①中国资源型城市的产业结构和工业绿色效率都存在较大的空间差异,且两者具有相似的空间格局,表现较优的城市主要集中在陕西、山西和内蒙古南部、山东西部等地区;②生态创新对提升资源型城市的产业结构具有显著的正向作用,这种作用对成长型、成熟型、衰退型和再生型资源型城市均显著;③生态创新对提升资源型城市工业绿色效率没有显著的影响,其中生态创新对成长型城市提升工业绿色效率有显著负面影响,对成熟型、衰退型和再生型城市的影响则不显著。基于以上发现,本文认为生态创新对于促进中国资源型城市经济转型升级的作用尚未得到充分显现,并提出完善中国资源型城市生态创新政策的具体建议。

The impact of technological innovation on urban economic transformation has received great attention, but few existing studies have focused on the impact of ecological innovation on the economic transformation of resource-based cities. This study used data of 115 resource-based prefecture-level cities in China from 2009 to 2017 to test the impact of ecological innovation on resource-based cities, including the upgrading of industrial structure and industrial green efficiency. It was found that the economic transformation of China’s resource-based cities is still at an early stage. Although the industrial green efficiency of resource-based cities has improved, the upward trend of the industrial structure upgrading was very weak. Resource-based cities are spatially differentiated in their economic transformation capabilities. The cities with high performance are concentrated in Shaanxi Province, Shanxi Province, southern Inner Mongolia, and western Shandong Province. The empirical results show that ecological innovation has a significant positive effect on improving the level of industrial structure upgrading in resource-based cities, and this effect is more pronounced in mature and regenerative cities. But the impact of ecological innovation on improving industrial green efficiency is not significant. We suggest that innovation policies need to be tailored according to the characteristics of different cities.

基于2000~2014年东北地区资源型城市面板数据,分析转型期间人口时空格局变化特征以及影响因素。研究发现,转型以来东北资源型城市人口的空间分布不均衡状态不断加剧,只有25%的城市人口集中水平保持不变或小幅提升,75%的资源型城市人口集聚水平下降。从城市类型来看,石油型城市人口吸纳能力优于冶金型城市、森工型城市和煤炭型城市。选择个体时刻固定效应模型回归分析,得出产业结构调整、交通便捷程度、医疗社会服务、环境质量等因素对人口空间集中分布产生较明显的作用,未来可通过产业结构升级、提高在岗工资水平、加强基本公共服务完善和交通网络建设等方面提高资源型城市人口集聚能力。

With keeping a high-speed growth since reform policy, resource-based cities in Northeast China have encountered both social and economic changes caused by internal transition as well as external factors. As one of the main factors that effect the cities transition development, it is important to strenghen research on population distribution charateristics of resource-based cities, to provide scientific supports for both resource allocation and policy making. This article aims to reveal the population spatial distribution of the northeast resource-based cities during the transition developing process. The study constructs indicators for the population, economy, society, and environment based on the sustainable development theory with referring data. The spatial-temporal pattern and the effects of other factors are examined at the city level in resource-based cities in Northeast China from 2000 to 2014. The key conclusions of this study are as follows: 1) Nearly 75% of resource-based cities, population agglomeration levels declined in the Northeast during transition process. Yichun lost much more population than other places,while Daqing’s attracting ability kept being the strongest. According to the resource attribution, coal cities are qualitified capable of attracting population than mining cities, and the forest cities are the worst. 2) Four stages of population change can be identified according to their unbalanced coefficient values. The first stage was from 2000 to 2002, the level went smoothly without big fluctuation. In 2003-2005, the unbalanced situation accelerated with the resource-based cities’ population moving activity became stronger. During the third time, under the government financial help, the population agglomeration ability of resource-based cities decaresed slowly. However, the situation did not turn well after 2013, many people prefered to go outside searching more opportunities. 3) The development of a service industry, traffic transportation, medical treatment, social insurance and environmental quality were found to make significant contributions to the population development during the transition process in resource-based cities; however, income level and education were not found to be as effective as other factors. Overall, the population change in the resource-based cities matches with the economic transition process. In the future, applying the innovation, increasing the income, and upgrading management systems can enlarge the capacity of attracting people for the resource-based cities. Additionally, government and enterprises should also change their traditional planning models, implement well-directed measures and solve the historical problems such as laid-off workers’ social insurance gradually and moderately by taking a sufficient consideration of both inside and outside circumstances.

The majority of the shrinking cities literature focuses solely on instances of population loss and economic decline. This article argues that shrinking cities exist on a spectrum between prosperity and decline. Taking a wider view of population loss, I explore the possibility of prosperous shrinking cities: if they exist, where they exist, and under what conditions shrinking cities can thrive. Examining census place data from the 1980 to 2010 U.S. Census and American Community Surveys, 27 percent of 886 shrinking cities were found to have income levels greater than their surrounding regions. Shrinking and prosperous shrinking cities of all sizes were found across the United States. Shrinkage was most prevalent in the Rust Belt region and prosperous shrinkage in coastal regions. Prosperous shrinking cities were overwhelmingly found within megapolitan regions and were rarely principal cities. Multivariate regression analysis found that both population (city size) and the severity of shrinkage (magnitude of population loss) had no effect on economic prosperity. Talent (location quotient of education) was found to be the strongest predictor of prosperous shrinkage.