水资源、水环境与水生态是相互联系的有机整体，推动“三水统筹”治理是建设美丽河湖的根本路径。在拓展TOE归因模型基础上，构建TOSE整体性理论框架以阐释“三水统筹”治理的影响因素，借助耦合协调度模型测度2012—2023年中国省域“三水统筹”治理成效，采用动态fsQCA方法检验治理路径。结果表明：（1）样本期内23个省（自治区、直辖市）的“三水统筹”耦合协调度实现梯度迁跃，但整体上处于低水平阶段；区域间发展差距逐步扩大，长三角成为水生态文明建设“先行区”。（2）TOSE理论框架对解释“三水统筹”治理的驱动因素具有适用性。治理成效有赖于技术基础、组织管理、社会参与、经济环境四组因素的共同优化。（3）“三水统筹”治理的驱动路径包括政策驱动+社会联动型、政策驱动+经济推动型、政策驱动+技术拉动型三种；无效路径包括政策目标失衡型与政策执行缺失型两种。（4）驱动路径的条件变量间存在替代性关系，但其有效性均以组织管理条件为前提。驱动路径的运行模式呈现阶段性特征，“十二五”期间依赖政策驱动，“十三五”期间依靠政策引导与社会响应的良性互动，“十四五”期间技术基础与社会参与跃升为关键因素。研究结论为“三水统筹”治理提供了理论框架与实践路径。

Water resources, water environment, and water ecology form an interconnected organic whole. Promoting the integrated governance of these three elements is the fundamental pathway to constructing beautiful rivers and lakes. Building upon an expanded TOE attribution model, a holistic TOSE theoretical framework was constructed to explain the influencing factors of integrated water governance. Using a coupling coordination degree model, the effectiveness of integrated water governance at the provincial level in China from 2012 to 2023 was measured, and dynamic fsQCA was employed to examine governance pathways. The results indicate that: (1) During the sample period, the coupling coordination degree of integrated water governance in 23 provincial-level regions achieved gradient leapfrogging, though overall it remains at a low level. Regional development gaps have gradually widened, with the Yangtze River Delta emerging as a "pioneering zone" for water ecological civilization construction. (2) The TOSE theoretical framework demonstrates applicability in explaining the driving factors of integrated water governance. Governance effectiveness relies on the synergistic optimization of four groups of factors: technological foundations, organizational management, social participation, and economic environment. (3) The driving pathways for integrated water governance include three types: policy-driven + social linkage, policy-driven + economic propulsion, and policy-driven + technology pull. Ineffective pathways consist of two types: imbalanced policy objectives and deficient policy implementation. (4) Substitutability exists among the conditional variables of driving pathways, but their effectiveness is premised on organizational management conditions. The operational modes of driving pathways exhibit phased characteristics: during the 12th Five-Year Plan period (2011-2015), reliance was on policy drive; during the 13th Five-Year Plan period (2016-2020), governance depended on positive interactions between policy guidance and societal response; and during the 14th Five-Year Plan period (2021-2025), technological foundations and social participation have become key factors. The research conclusions provide a theoretical framework and practical pathways for integrated water governance.