人口资源高质量发展与中国式现代化

面向中国式现代化的人口与资源高质量发展挑战与应对路径

  • 崔璨 , 1 ,
  • 杨林川 2 ,
  • 卿石松 3 ,
  • 潘泽瀚 4 ,
  • 刘春卉 5 ,
  • 朱媛媛 6 ,
  • 刘晔 7 ,
  • 古恒宇 8 ,
  • 吴康 9 ,
  • 刘涛 10 ,
  • 李婷 11
展开
  • 1.华东师范大学中国现代城市研究中心/人才发展战略研究院/地理科学学院, 上海 200062
  • 2.西南交通大学建筑学院, 成都 611756
  • 3.华东师范大学人口研究所, 上海 200241
  • 4.复旦大学社会发展与公共政策学院, 上海 200433
  • 5.南京农业大学人文与社会发展学院, 南京 210095
  • 6.华中师范大学城市与环境科学学院, 武汉 430079
  • 7.中山大学地理科学与规划学院, 广州 510006
  • 8.南京大学地理与海洋科学学院, 南京 210023
  • 9.首都经济贸易大学城市经济与公共管理学院, 北京 100070
  • 10.北京大学城市与环境科学学院, 北京 100871
  • 11.中国人民大学人口与健康学院, 北京 100872

其他作者为共同第二作者

崔璨(1987- ),女,安徽合肥人,博士,教授,博士生导师,研究方向为人口地理和城市地理。E-mail:

收稿日期: 2025-06-03

  修回日期: 2025-08-20

  网络出版日期: 2025-12-11

基金资助

国家自然科学基金项目(42171233)

Toward Chinese modernization: Challenges and strategies for high-quality development of population and resources

  • CUI Can , 1 ,
  • YANG Lin-chuan 2 ,
  • QING Shi-song 3 ,
  • PAN Ze-han 4 ,
  • LIU Chun-hui 5 ,
  • ZHU Yuan-yuan 6 ,
  • LIU Ye 7 ,
  • GU Heng-yu 8 ,
  • WU Kang 9 ,
  • LIU Tao 10 ,
  • LI Ting 11
Expand
  • 1. The Center for Modern Chinese City Studies/Institute for Talent Development Strategy/School of Geographic Sciences, East China Normal University, Shanghai 200062, China
  • 2. School of Architecture, Southwest Jiaotong University, Chengdu 611756, China
  • 3. Population Research Institute, East China Normal University, Shanghai 200241, China
  • 4. School of Social Development and Public Policy, Fudan University, Shanghai 200433, China
  • 5. College of Humanities and Social Development, Nanjing Agricultural University, Nanjing 210095, China
  • 6. College of Urban and Environmental Sciences, Central China Normal University, Wuhan 430079, China
  • 7. School of Geography and Planning, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou 510006, China
  • 8. School of Geography and Ocean Science, Nanjing University, Nanjing 210023, China
  • 9. School of Urban Economics and Public Affairs of Capital University of Economics and Business, Beijing 100070, China
  • 10. College of Urban and Environmental Sciences, Peking University, Beijing 100871, China
  • 11. School of Population and Health, Renmin University of China, Beijing 100872, China

Received date: 2025-06-03

  Revised date: 2025-08-20

  Online published: 2025-12-11

摘要

在推进中国式现代化的进程中,人口与资源问题作为贯穿经济社会发展的基础性、全局性和战略性议题,人口结构性转型对资源配置逻辑、发展动力机制与治理体系效能提出了全新挑战。当前,人口负增长、老龄化和低生育率等趋势叠加,人口发展已由“数量主导”阶段进入“结构重构”阶段。围绕“人口与资源高质量发展”这一主题,邀请来自相关学科的专家学者,对人口结构转型和流动格局新特征、资源配置和优化,以及数据技术赋能人口治理等问题展开讨论。综合各位专家的主要观点,归纳总结出三条核心路径:一是构建系统性应对机制,推动人口结构优化及资源配置协同发展;二是发挥数据与人工智能技术的赋能作用,提升人口与资源监测与治理智能化水平;三是推动制度创新,打破户籍、福利与区域壁垒,完善常住人口导向的资源配置服务体系。专家一致认为,应以系统性思维统筹多元政策工具,推动人口治理范式从被动调控向主动适配转型,在科技支撑与制度创新的双轮驱动下,构建一个可持续、公平、高效的人口资源协调发展体系,是破解人口结构转型难题、实现高质量发展的关键路径。

本文引用格式

崔璨 , 杨林川 , 卿石松 , 潘泽瀚 , 刘春卉 , 朱媛媛 , 刘晔 , 古恒宇 , 吴康 , 刘涛 , 李婷 . 面向中国式现代化的人口与资源高质量发展挑战与应对路径[J]. 自然资源学报, 2026 , 41(1) : 1 -18 . DOI: 10.31497/zrzyxb.20260101

Abstract

As China advances its path toward Chinese modernization, population and resource issues serve as foundational, overarching, and strategic topics that span economic and social development. The structural transformation of the population presents new challenges to the logic of resource allocation, the mechanisms driving development, and the effectiveness of governance. At present, population decline, rapid aging, and low fertility rates are converging, marking a shift in population development from "quantity-driven" phase to "structural restructuring" phase. This paper, centered on the theme of "high-quality development of population and resources", draws on insights from scholars across relevant disciplines to examine key issues such as the transition of demographic structure and migration patterns, resource adaptation and optimization, and technology-enabled governance. Based on their viewpoints, three core strategies are summarized: (1) establishing a systematic response framework to coordinate demographic optimization with resource allocation; (2) leveraging big data and artificial intelligence to enhance the intelligence level of population and resource monitoring and governance; and (3) advancing institutional innovation to overcome barriers related to household registration, social welfare, and regional disparities, thereby building an inclusive system serving for the general resident population. Experts broadly agree that a systems-thinking approach integrating diverse policy tools is essential. A paradigm shift in population governance, from passive regulation to proactive adaptation, should be driven by both technological support and institutional innovation. Building a sustainable, equitable, and efficient system for coordinated development of population and resources is key to address the challenges of population structure transformation and achieve high-quality development.

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