EN中文

自然资源学报 >

2018 , Vol. 33 >Issue 3: 386 - 397

DOI: https://doi.org/10.11849/zrzyxb.20170502

资源利用与管理

基于地块尺度的黑河中游地区农业结构变化及其驱动因素分析——以张掖市为例

展开
  • 1. 山东科技大学测绘科学与工程学院,山东 青岛 266590;
    2. 中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所陆地表层格局与模拟重点实验室,北京 100101
肖兴媛（1977- ）,女,山东泰安人,博士后,硕士生导师,主要从事土地利用覆被变化研究。E-mail: 93798297@qq.com

收稿日期: 2017-05-24

  修回日期: 2017-11-06

  网络出版日期: 2018-03-20

基金资助

国家自然科学基金项目（91325302）; 山东省高等学校科技计划项目（J14LH05）

收起

Analysis on Changes of Agricultural Structure and Its Driving Factors in the Middle Reaches of Heihe River at Plot Scale—A Case Study of Zhangye City

Expand
  • 1. College of Geomatics, Shandong University of Science and Technology, Qingdao 266590, China;
    2. Key Laboratory of Land Surface Pattern and Simulation, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, CAS, Beijing 100101, China

Received date: 2017-05-24

  Revised date: 2017-11-06

  Online published: 2018-03-20

Supported by

National Natural Science Foundation of China, No. 91325302; Science and Technology Plan Project of Shandong Higher Education Institutions, No. J14LH05.

Fold

摘要

黑河中游是我国西北干旱区重要的粮食基地,研究其农业结构变化及其驱动因素对农户种植决策及推动当地农业发展具有一定参考意义。论文以位于黑河中游地区的张掖市为例,基于统计年鉴和农户问卷调查数据,从地块尺度分析了研究区2001—2014年期间农业结构变化,并在定性分析的基础上,从地块与农户两个层面,运用二元Logistic模型及投入-产出法定量分析农业结构变化驱动因素。结果表明：1）研究区作物种植类型趋于多样化。2001年,研究区主要种植作物为小麦、玉米、大麦及“小麦和玉米套作”,其种植地块数占所调查总地块数的81%,2014年种植作物种类增多,且蔬菜、马铃薯、油菜等经济作物种植数量较2001年有所上升。2）由种植小麦为主（占总地块数的31%）转变为种植制种玉米为主（占总地块数的38.7%）;套作转单作。2001年,共有58个套作种植地块,占调查总地块数的22%,其中“小麦和玉米套作”最多,有47个地块;而在2014年,作物套作地块数锐减为2个,“小麦和玉米套作”全部转换为其他单作,其中51%转为制种玉米;水稻种植消失,主要转为普通玉米。3）地块层面上,种植地区的海拔、灌溉定额、河源来水量对农业结构变化影响非常显著（显著水平达到1%）,地下水对农业结构变化影响较为显著（显著水平达到5%）。4）农户层面上,农户作为理性经济人,“收益”是影响其种植行为的最关键因素,其次是政策因素（在5%的水平上显著）,务农劳动力与劳均耕地面积也有一定的驱动作用。

关键词： Logistic模型; 地块尺度; 农业结构变化; 张掖市

本文引用格式

肖兴媛, 胡敏悦, 李秀彬, 谈明洪, 赵相伟, 郑璐倩 . 基于地块尺度的黑河中游地区农业结构变化及其驱动因素分析——以张掖市为例[J]. 自然资源学报, 2018 , 33(3) : 386 -397 . DOI: 10.11849/zrzyxb.20170502

Abstract

Since the middle reaches of the Heihe River is an important grain base in the arid area of Northwest China, studying the agricultural structure change and its driving factors in this area has certain reference significance for farmers’ decision-making on planting and promoting the development of local agriculture. However, there are few studies on the change of agricultural structure and its driving factors at the plot scale. Based on the statistical yearbook and the survey on farmers, this paper analyzes the changes of agricultural structure in the study area during 2001-2014. The paper analyzes quantitatively the driving factors of agricultural structure change by using binary Logistic model and input-output method at two levels, household level and plot level. The results showed that: 1) The crop types in the study area tend to diversify. In 2001, the main planting crops in the study area were wheat, maize, barley and wheat-corn relay intercropping, whose number of plots accounted for 81% of the total number of plots. In 2014, the types of planting crops increased and the number of cash crops (vegetables, potatoes, rape) also increased compared with those in 2001. 2) The mainly planting crop in the study area changed from wheat (31% of the total plots) to corn (38.7% of the total plots), and intercropping changed to monoculture. In 2001, there were 58 intercropping plots (accounting for 22% of the total plots), most of which were wheat-corn relay intercropping plots (47 plots). In 2014, there were only two intercropping plots, and wheat-corn relay intercropping plots all converted to monoculture plots, of which 51% plots changed to corn plots. All rice plots turned to maize plots. 3) At the plot level, the elevation of the planting area, the irrigation quota and the water supply from headwaters have significant effects on the change of agricultural structure (significance level is 1%). The impact of groundwater on agricultural structure change is also significant (significance level is 5%). 4) As rational economic men, the most important factor affecting the planting behaviors of farmers is income. Policy factors (at 5% of significance level), agricultural labors and the area of cultivated land per capita also have effects.

Key words： change in agricultural structure; land plot; Logistic model; Zhangye City

参考文献

[1] 阎占定. 当前我国农业结构调整分析 [D]. 武汉: 武汉大学, 2004.
[YAN Z D.The Analysis of Structural Adjustments of Agriculture in China. Wuhan: Wuhan University, 2004. ]
[2] 高强, 孔祥智. 中国农业结构调整的总体估价与趋势判断[J]. 改革, 2014(11): 80-91.
[GAO Q, KONG X Z.Overall evaluation and the trend of China’s agricultural structure adjustment. Reform, 2014(11): 80-91. ]
[3] 李世鹏. 新疆农业产业结构调整优化研究 [D]. 乌鲁木齐: 新疆财经大学, 2012.
[LI S P.Agricultural Adjustment and Optimization of Industrial Structure. Urumqi: Xinjiang University of Finance and Economics, 2012. ]
[4] 郑璐倩. 干旱区绿洲农业结构变化及其用水效率研究——以张掖市为例 [D]. 北京: 中国科学院大学, 2016.
[ZHENG L Q.Agricultural Structure Changes and the Impacts on Water Use Efficiency in Arid Area—A Case Study of Zhangye in Gansu. Beijing: University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, 2016. ]
[5] 刘彦随, 陆大道. 中国农业结构调整基本态势与区域效应[J]. 地理学报, 2003, 58(3): 381-389.
[LIU Y S, LU D D.The basic trend and regional effect of agricultural structure adjustment in China. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2003, 58(3): 381-389. ]
[6] 王勇. 我国农业结构演变的驱动因素分析研究[J]. 安徽农业科学, 2007, 35(28): 9057-9059.
[WANG Y.Studies on the factors stimulating the evolution of Chinese agricultural structure. Journal of Anhui Agricultural Sciences, 2007, 35(28): 9057-9059. ]
[7] 张惠, 杨正礼, 韩瑞玲. 银川市农业结构调整的自然-社会经济驱动因素分析[J]. 干旱区资源与环境, 2009, 23(10): 25-30.
[ZHANG H, YANG Z L, HAN R L.Driving force analysis on natural and socio-economical factors to agriculture structure adjustment in Yinchuan City. Journal of Arid Land Resources and Environment, 2009, 23(10): 25-30. ]
[8] RAVNBORG H M, RUBIANO J E.Farmers’ decision making on land use—The importance of soil conditions in the case of Río Cabuyal Watershed, Colombia[J]. Geografisk Tidsskrift—Danish Journal of Geography, 2001, 101(1): 115-130.
[9] 张永凯, 王蕾. 基于种植结构的干旱区农业耗水量变化及其影响因素分析——以张掖市甘州区为例[J]. 资源开发与市场, 2014, 30(9): 1067-1069, 1137.
[ZHANG Y K, WANG L.Analysis of changes in agricultural water consumption and its determinants based on agricultural planting structure in arid areas—A case study of Ganzhou District, Zhangye City. Resource Development and Market, 2014, 30(9): 1067-1069, 1137. ]
[10] HAILE M G, KALKUHL M, BRAUN J.Inter- and intra-seasonal crop acreage response to international food prices and implications of volatility[J]. Agricultural Economics, 2014, 45(6): 693-710.
[11] 王小鹏. 河西走廊农业结构特征及其优化模式研究 [D]. 兰州: 西北师范大学, 2011.
[WANG X P.Agricultural Structure Characteristics and Optimization Model of Hexi Corridor. Lanzhou: Northwest Normal University, 2011. ]
[12] LAWAS M C M, LUNING H A. GIS and multivariate analysis of farmer’s spatial crop decision behavior[J]. Netherlands Journal of Agricultural Science, 1998, 46(2): 193-207.
[13] 翟荣新, 刘彦随, 梁昊光. 东部沿海地区农业结构变动特征及区域差异分析[J]. 人文地理, 2009(1): 72-75, 66.
[ZHAI R X, LIU Y S, LIANG H G.Characteristics of agricultural structure changes and regional differences in eastern coastal areas of China. Human Geography, 2009(1): 72-75, 66. ]
[14] 刘珍环, 杨鹏, 吴文斌, 等. 近30年中国农作物种植结构时空变化分析[J]. 地理学报, 2016, 71(5): 840-851.
[LIU Z H, YANG P, WU W B, et al.Spatio-temporal changes in Chinese crop patterns over the past three decades. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2016, 71(5): 840-851. ]
[15] 李曼, 杨建平, 谭春萍, 等. 疏勒河流域双塔灌区种植结构变化及其原因[J]. 中国沙漠, 2014, 34(5): 1417-1423.
[LI M, YANG J P, TAN C P, et al.Change of agricultural planting structure and its causes in the Shuangta irrigation district in the Shulehe River basin. Journal of Desert Research, 2014, 34(5): 1417-1423. ]
[16] 杨伦, 刘某承, 闵庆文, 等. 哈尼梯田地区农户粮食作物种植结构及驱动力分析[J]. 自然资源学报, 2017, 32(1): 26-39.
[YANG L, LIU M C, MIN Q W, et al.An analysis on crop choice and its driving factors in Hani Rice Terraces. Journal of Natural Resources, 2017, 32(1): 26-39. ]
[17] 石敏俊, 王磊, 王晓君. 黑河分水后张掖市水资源供需格局变化及驱动因素[J]. 资源科学, 2011, 33(8): 1489-1497.
[SHI M J, WANG L, WANG X J.With the Heihe River water resources in Zhangye City after the water supply and demand pattern changes and driving factors. Resources Science, 2011, 33(8): 1489-1497. ]
[18] 甘肃发展年鉴编委会. 甘肃发展年鉴2015 [M]. 北京: 中国统计出版社, 2015.
[Gansu Development Yearbook Editorial Committee. Gansu Development Yearbook in 2015. Beijing: China Statistics Press, 2015. ]
[19] 徐岚, 赵羿. 利用马尔柯夫过程预测东陵区土地利用格局的变化[J]. 应用生态学报, 1993, 4(3): 272-277.
[XU L, ZHAO Y.Forecast of landuse pattern change in Dongling District of Shenyang: An application of Markov process. Chinese Journal of Applied Ecology, 1993, 4(3): 272-277. ]
[20] 刘瑞, 朱道林. 基于转移矩阵的土地利用变化信息挖掘方法探讨[J]. 资源科学, 2010, 32(8): 1544-1550.
[LIU R, ZHU D L.Methods for detecting land use changes based on the land use transition matrix. Resources Science, 2010, 32(8): 1544-1550. ]
[21] 曾辉, 高凌云, 夏洁. 基于修正的转移概率方法进行城市景观动态研究——以南昌市区为例[J]. 生态学报, 2003, 23(11): 2201-2209.
[ZENG H, GAO L Y, XIA J.Dynamic analysis of urban landscape using a modified conversion matrix method: A case study in Nanchang City. Acta Ecologica Sinica, 2003, 23(11): 2201-2209. ]
[22] 肖兴媛, 江涛, 张红日. 济宁市多尺度土地利用变化与水环境安全研究 [M]. 西安: 西安交通大学出版社, 2015: 40.
[XIAO X Y, JIANG T, ZHANG H R.Study on Multi-scale Land Use Change and Water Environment Safety in Jining City. Xi’an: Xi’an Jiaotong University Press, 2015: 40. ]
[23] 徐建华. 计量地理学 [M]. 北京: 高等教育出版社, 2006: 213.
[XU J H. Quantitative Geography.Beijing: Higher Education Press, 2006: 213. ]
[24] HERINGA P W, VAN DER HEIDE C M, HEIJMAN W J M. The economic impact of multifunctional agriculture in Dutch regions: An input-output model [J]. NJAS-Wageningen Journal of Life Sciences, 2013, 64/65(3): 59-66.
[25] 王济川, 郭志刚. Logistic回归模型——方法与应用 [M]. 北京: 高等教育出版社, 2001.
[WANG J C, GUO Z G.Logistic Regression Model—Method and Application. Beijing: Higher Education Press, 2001. ]
[26] 赵建国, 么晓敏, 王海波. 基于Logit模型的大连市高校毕业生就业意向分析[J]. 财经问题研究, 2008(9): 24-29.
[ZHAO J G, YAO X M, WANG H B.An analysis of employment intention of college graduates in Dalian City based on Logit Model. Research on Financial and Economic Issues, 2008(9): 24-29. ]
[27] 王娟, 吴普特, 王玉宝, 等. 农户对节水型农业种植结构调整意愿的量化分析——以黑河干流中游为例[J]. 中国生态农业学报, 2012, 20(8): 1105-1112.
[WANG J, WU P T, WANG Y B, et al.Quantitative analysis of farmer attitude towards water-saving planting structure adjustment: A case study of Heihe River middle reaches. Chinese Journal of Eco-Agriculture, 2012, 20(8): 1105-1112. ]
[28] ADAM S.An Inquiry into the Nature and Causes of the Wealth of Nations[M]. London: W. Strahan and T. Cadell, 1776.
[29] DING Y, PETERSON J M.Assessing the determinants of irrigated crop choices in Kansas High Plains[J]. Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, 2003, 28(3): 653-653.
[30] LICHTENBERG E.Land quality, irrigation development, and cropping patterns in the Northern High Plains[J]. American Journal of Agricultural Economics, 1989, 71(2): 187-194.
[31] 李玉敏, 王金霞. 农村水资源短缺: 现状、趋势及其对作物种植结构的影响——基于全国10个省调查数据的实证分析[J]. 自然资源学报, 2009, 24(2): 200-208.
[LI Y M, WANG J X.Situation, trend and its impacts on cropping pattern of water shortage in the rural areas: Empirical analysis based on ten provinces field survey in China. Journal of Natural Resources, 2009, 24(2): 200-208. ]
[32] VAN HUYLENBROECK G, DAMASCO-TAGARINO D.Analysing crop choice of Philippine vegetable farmers with multicriteria analysis[J]. Journal of Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis, 1998, 7(3): 160-168.
[33] 田文勇, 张会幈, 黄超, 等. 农户种植结构调整行为的影响因素研究——基于贵州省的实证[J]. 中国农业资源与区划, 2016, 37(4): 150.
[TIAN W Y, ZHANG H P, HUANG C, et al.Study on the factors influencing farmers planting structure adjustment behavior—An empirical analysis based on Guizhou Province. Chinese Journal of Agricultural Resources and Regional Planning, 2016, 37(4): 150. ]
[34] GREIG L.An analysis of the key factors influencing farmer’s choice of crop, Kibamba Ward, Tanzania[J]. Journal of Agricultural Economics, 2009, 60(3): 699-715.
[35] CAI J Y, ZHANG T L.Empirical study on the effect of abolishing agricultural tax on farmers’ income[J]. Agricultural Science & Technology, 2012, 13(3): 682-685.
[36] 董晓霞, 乌云花. 农户种植业结构调整的意愿及其影响因素分析——以环北京地区为例[J]. 安徽农业科学, 2008, 36(5): 2121-2123, 2137.
[DONG X X, WU Y H.Willingness of household cropping structure adjustment and its impact factors analysis. Journal of Anhui Agricultural Sciences, 2008, 36(5): 2121-2123, 2137. ]
Options
文章导航

/

〈 〉