EN中文

自然资源学报 >

2017 , Vol. 32 >Issue 5: 864 - 876

DOI: https://doi.org/10.11849/zrzyxb.20160555

资源评价

中国农村生态环境质量动态评价及未来发展趋势预测

展开
  • 中国农业科学院农业经济与发展研究所,北京 100081
王晓君（1986- ）,女,山西平遥县人,博士后,研究方向为资源管理与环境政策。E-mail: xjwang86@gmail.com

收稿日期: 2016-05-30

  修回日期: 2016-10-10

  网络出版日期: 2017-05-20

基金资助

国家社会科学基金重大项目（14ZDAZ0241）; 国家自然科学基金项目（71273263）; 中国博士后科学基金（2016M590164）

收起

Dynamic Assessment and Trend Prediction of Rural Eco-environmental Quality in China

Expand
  • Institute of Agricultural Economics and Development, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, Beijing 100081, China

Received date: 2016-05-30

  Revised date: 2016-10-10

  Online published: 2017-05-20

Supported by

National Social Science Fund, No.14ZDAZ0241National Natural Science Foundation of China, No.71273263; China Postdoctoral Science Foundation, No.2016M590164

Fold

摘要

客观评价和预测我国农村生态环境质量状况及发展趋势,对于保障粮食安全、实现农村经济可持续发展具有重要的理论和现实意义。论文基于压力-状态-响应（PSR）模型框架,构建了我国农村生态环境质量评价指标体系,分析了2000—2015年我国农村生态环境质量的动态变化。基于GM(1,1)模型,预测了“十三五”期间我国农村生态环境质量的发展态势。研究结果表明：2000—2015年我国农村生态环境质量的综合评价得分从0.669下降到0.387,农村生态环境质量总体呈现恶化趋势,农村生态环境承受的污染排放压力越来越大,环境治理投入较少,尚未形成对农村生态环境恶化情形的逆转。如果继续延续过去农业经济发展模式,2020年我国农村生态环境质量状况将会持续恶化,与“十三五”绿色发展的良好愿景目标相差甚远。

关键词： "十三五"绿色发展目标; GM(1; PSR模型; 1)预测模型; 农村生态环境质量

本文引用格式

王晓君, 吴敬学, 蒋和平 . 中国农村生态环境质量动态评价及未来发展趋势预测[J]. 自然资源学报, 2017 , 32(5) : 864 -876 . DOI: 10.11849/zrzyxb.20160555

Abstract

Objectively assessing rural eco-environmental quality and predicting its development trend have important theoretical and practical significance for food security, sustainable development of rural economy, and harmonious relationship between economic growth and ecological environment. Based on the framework of PSR model, the paper constructed an evaluating index system to assess the dynamic changes of rural eco-environment during 2000-2015. And the GM grey system theory model was applied to predict the evolution trend of rural eco-environment during the 13rd Five-Year Plan period. The results showed: 1) The quality of rural eco-environment had been falling in the past 15 years. The comprehensive evaluated score of rural eco-environment decreased from 0.669 in 2000 to 0.387 in 2015. The pollutions emission in rural areas was increasing, but the input to environmental protection was low. The continuing growth of Chinese rural economy was at the cost of ecological and environmental deterioration. 2) According to the past growth mode of rural economics, rural eco-environmental quality will continue deteriorating during 2016-2020, far from the expectation of green development during the 13rd Five-Year Plan. We need to change the mode of rural production as soon as possible in order to ease the pressure on rural soil and water imposed by fertilizers and pesticides, and enhance investment in rural environmental protection as much as possible.

Key words： 13th Five-Year Plan; GM model; PSR model; quality of rural eco-environment

参考文献

[1] 中国文明网. 农村生态环境关系城乡生态安全 [EB/OL]. http://hz.wenming.cn/xxzsj/ll/201408/t20140822_1317230.htm. [The Website of China Civilization. The impact of rural ecological environment on urban-rural ecological security, http://hz.wenming.cn/xxzsj/ll/201408/t20140822_1317230.htm. ]
[2] 陈锡文. 环境问题与中国农村发展 [J]. 管理世界, 2002(1): 5-8. [CHEN X W. The environmental problems and rural development in China. Management World, 2002(1): 5-8. ]
[3] 李谷成. 中国农业的绿色生产率革命: 1978—2008年 [J]. 经济学(季刊), 2014, 13(2): 537-558. [LI G C. The green productivity revolution of agriculture in China from 1978 to 2008. China Economic Quartedy, 2014, 13(2): 537-558. ]
[4] CHEN X P, CUI Z L, FAN M S, et al. Producing more grain with lower environmental costs [J]. Nature, 2014, 514(7523): 486-489.
[5] NORSE D, JU X T. Environmental costs of China’s food security [J]. Agriculture, Ecosystems & Environment, 2015, 209: 5-14.
[6] 沈能, 张斌. 农业增长能改善环境生产率吗?——有条件“环境库兹涅茨曲线”的实证检验 [J]. 中国农村经济, 2015(7): 17-30. [SHEN N, ZHANG B. Can agricultural growth improve the productivity of environment?—An empirical test from “Environmental kuznets curve” under certain conditions. Chinese Rural Economy, 2015(7): 17-30. ]
[7] 葛继红, 周曙东. 农业面源污染的经济影响因素分析——基于1978—2009年的江苏省数据 [J]. 中国农村经济, 2011(5): 72-81. [GE J H, ZHOU S D. The economic impact factor analysis of agricultural non-point source pollution based on the data of Jiangsu Province in 1978-2009. Chinese Rural Economy, 2011(5): 72-81. ]
[8] ZHOU D, LIN Z L, LIU L M, et al. Assessing secondary soil salinization risk based on the PSR sustainability framework [J]. Journal of Environmental Management, 2013, 128: 642-654.
[9] ZHOU S, HUANG Y F, YU B F, et al. Effects of human activities on the eco-environment in the middle Heihe River Basin based on an extended environmental Kuznets curve model [J]. Ecological Engineering, 2015, 76: 14-26.
[10] 高奇, 师学义, 张琛, 等. 县域农业生态环境质量动态评价及预测 [J]. 农业工程学报, 2014, 30(5): 228-237. [GAO Q, SHI X Y, ZHANG C, et al. Dynamic assessment and prediction on quality of agricultural eco-environment in county area. Transactions of the CSAE, 2014, 30(5): 228-237. ]
[11] ZHANG X C, MA C, ZHAN S F, et al. Evaluation and simulation for ecological risk based on energy analysis and pressure-state-response model in a coastal city, China [J]. Procedia Environmental Sciences, 2012, 13: 221-231.
[12] BAI X R, TANG J C. Ecological security assessment of Tianjin by PSR Model [J]. Procedia Environmental Sciences, 2010, 2: 881-887.
[13] 梁流涛. 农村生态环境时空特征及其演变规律研究 [D]. 南京: 南京农业大学, 2009. [LIANG L T. Study on the Evolution Temporal and Spatial of Rural Ecological Environment. Nanjing: Nanjing Agricultural University, 2009. ]
[14] 张维理, 武淑霞, 冀宏杰, 等. 中国农业面源污染形势估计及控制对策I. 21世纪初期中国农业面源污染的形势估计 [J]. 中国农业科学, 2004, 37(7): 1008-1017. [ZHANG W L, WU S X, JI H J, et al. Estimation of agricultural non-point source pollution in China and the alleviating strategies I. Estimation of agricultural non-point source pollution in China in early 21st century, Scientia Agricultura Sinica, 2004, 37(7): 1008-1017. ]
[15] 章穗, 张梅, 迟国泰. 基于熵权法的科学技术评价模型及其实证研究 [J]. 管理学报, 2010, 7(1): 34-42. [ZHANG S, ZHANG M, CHI G T. The science and technology evaluation model based on entropy weight and empirical research during the 10th five-year of China. Chinese Journal of Management, 2010, 7(1): 34-42. ]
[16] 李培月, 吴健华, 钱会. 样本统计量对水质评价中熵权计算的影响 [J]. 南水北调与水利科技, 2012, 10(2): 68-74. [LI P Y, WU J H, QIAN H. Impacts of sampling statistics on entropy weight in water quality assessment. South to North Water Diversion and Water Science & Technology, 2012, 10(2): 68-74. ]
[17] 陈洁, 唐辉, 钱会. 水质评价中熵权对指标极差变化的敏感性分析 [J]. 水文地质工程地质, 2013, 40(5): 40-44. [CHEN J, TANG H, QIAN H. Effects of index range variation on entropy weight in water quality assessment. Hydrogeology & Engineer in Geology, 2013, 40(5): 40-44. ]
[18] 马国霞, 於方, 曹东, 等. 中国农业面源污染物排放量计算及中长期预测 [J]. 环境科学学报, 2012, 32(2): 489-497. [MA G X, YU F, CAO D, et al. Calculation of agricultural non-point source pollution emission in China and its long-term forecast. Acta Scientiae Circumstantiae, 2012, 32(2): 489-497. ]
[19] 陈敏鹏, 陈吉宁, 赖斯芸. 中国农业和农村污染的清单分析与空间特征识别 [J]. 中国环境科学, 2006, 26(6):751-755. [CHEN M P, CHEN J N, LAI S Y. Inventory analysis and spatial distribution of Chinese agricultural and rural pollution. China Environmental Science, 2006, 26(6): 751-755. ]
[20] 邓聚龙. 灰色系统基本方法 [M]. 武汉: 华中理工大学出版社, 1987. [DENG J L. The Basic Methodology of Gray System. Wuhan: Huazhong University of Science and Technology Press, 1987. ]
[21] 杨华龙, 刘金霞, 郑斌. 灰色预测GM(1,1) 模型的改进及应用 [J]. 数学的实践与认识, 2011, 41(23): 39-46. [YANG H L, LIU J X, ZHENG B. Improvement and application of Grey prediction GM(1,1) Mode. Mathematics in Practice and Theory, 2011, 41(23): 39-46. ]
[22] 刘思峰, 邓聚龙. GM(1,1) 模型的适用范围 [J]. 系统工程理论与实践, 2000(5): 121-124. [LIU S F, DENG J L. Application scope of GM(1,1) model. System Engineering Theory and Practice, 2000(5): 121-124. ]
[23] 彭兆弟, 李胜生, 刘庄, 等. 太湖流域跨界区农业面源污染特征 [J]. 生态与农村环境学报, 2016, 32(3): 458-465. [PENG Z D, LI S S,LIU Z, et al. Characteristics of transboundary non-point source agricultural pollution in the Taihu Valley. Journal of Ecology and Rural Environment, 2016, 32(3): 458-465. ]
[24] 徐晓梅, 吴雪, 何佳, 等. 滇池流域水污染特征(1988—2014年)及防治对策 [J]. 湖泊科学, 2016, 28(3): 476-484. [XU X M,WU X,HE J, et al. Research on the pollution characteristics of Dianchi watershed (1988-2014) and identification of countermeasures. Journal of Lake Sciences, 2016, 28(3): 476-484. ]
[25] GUO J H, LIU X J, ZHANG Y, et al. Significant acidification in major Chinese croplands [J]. Science, 2010, 327(5968): 1008-1010.
[26] 黄雪芬. 农村河流污染的成因与对策探讨 [J]. 绿色科技, 2010(12): 80-82. [HUANG X F. The causes and countermeasures of rural river pollution. Journal of Green Science and Technology, 2010(12): 80-82. ]
[27] 姚润丰. 我国90%的天然草原已出现不同程度退化 [J]. 草业科学, 2003, 20(12): 83-85. [YAO R F. 90% of natural grassland in our country have appeared different degree of degradation. Pratacultural Science, 2003, 20(12): 83-85. ]
[28] 农业部. 2014年全国草原监测报告 [EB/OL]. http://www.moa.gov.cn/zwllm/jcyj/zh/201504/t20150414_4526567.htm. [Agriculture Department of the People’s Republic of China. The report of national grassland monitoring 2014. http://www.moa.gov.cn/zwllm/jcyj/zh/201504/t20150414_4526567.htm. ]
Options
文章导航

/

〈 〉