论文针对西藏水电开发及外送在我国优化能源资源配置、调整能源结构和控制CO₂排放中的重要地位,综合考虑受电区火力发电的供电煤耗、CO₂排放水平及其动态变化,开展西藏地区水电开发的化石燃料替代、CO₂减排等低碳效益评价。结果表明：1）2006—2012年西藏水电开发的化石燃料替代效应和CO₂减排效应变化具有明显的波动性;2）不同技术水平下西藏水电开发的化石燃料替代效应存在明显差异,华中电网技术水平下西藏水电开发的化石燃料替代量最大,西北、西藏电网技术水平下次之,全国电网技术水平下最小;3）不同排放水平下西藏水电开发的CO₂减排效应也存在明显差异,西藏电网排放水平下西藏水电开发的CO₂减排量最大,西北、华中电网排放水平下次之;4）西藏水电未来开发的化石燃料替代潜力和CO₂减排潜力突出,2030年西藏水电开发的化石燃料替代量超过2012年西北电网5省区火电燃料消耗总量的75%;与其他排放水平相比,2030年华中电网排放水平下西藏水电开发的CO₂减排量相对较小,但仍然超过2013年阿根廷、巴基斯坦、越南等国能源消费的CO₂排放量。因此,西藏水电开发及外送对于我国推动能源结构低碳化、实现2030年应对气候变化国家自主行动目标等具有重要意义。

Hydropower development and outward transmission in Tibet play a vital role in optimization of energy resource configuration and reduction of CO₂ emission in China. The low-carbon effects of hydropower development in Tibet were assessed, and fossil fuel consumption reduction and CO₂ reduction achieved by hydropower development in Tibet were analyzed based on net coal consumption rate, CO₂ emission coefficient and its dynamic change of fossil-fired power generation in different power grids. The results show that: 1) The fossil fuel consumption reduction and the CO₂ reduction achieved by hydropower development in Tibet have significant variations. During the period from 2006 to 2012, the fossil fuel consumption reduction and the CO₂ reduction achieved by hydropower development in Tibet were the most in 2011. 2) The fossil fuel consumption reductions achieved by hydropower development in Tibet were different significantly with different net coal consumption rates of fossil-fired power generation. The fossil fuel consumption reduction achieved by hydropower development according to net coal consumption rate of fossil-fired power generation in Central China power grid (CCPG) was the most, the fossil fuel consumption reduction according to net coal consumption rate of fossil-fired power generation in Northwest China power grid (NCPG) and Tibet power grid (TPG) took the second and the third place respectively, and the fossil fuel consumption reduction according to net coal consumption rate of fossil-fired power generation in national power grid (NPG) was the least. 3) According to different CO₂ emission levels of fossil-fired power generation, the CO₂ reductions achieved by hydropower development in Tibet were also different. Among them, the CO₂ reduction achieved by hydropower development according to CO₂ emission level of fossil-fired power generation in TPG was the most, the CO₂ reduction of hydropower development according to CO₂ emission level of fossil-fired power generation in NCPG and CCPG took the second and the third place respectively. 4) The fossil fuel consumption reduction potential and the CO₂ reduction potential achieved by hydropower development in Tibet were outstanding. According to net coal consumption rates of fossil-fired power generation in NCPG, CCPG, TPG and NPG, the fossil fuel consumption reductions achieved by hydropower development in Tibet in 2030 would be more than 75% of total fossil fuel consumption (1.379×10⁸ tec) of fossil-fired power generation in NCPG in 2012. Among the CO₂ reduction potentials according to different CO₂ emission levels, the CO₂ reduction achieved by hydropower development in Tibet according to CO₂ emission level of fossil-fired power generation in CCPG would be the least, but more than the carbon dioxide emissions of fossil fuel consumption in Argentina, Pakistan, Vietnam and other countries in 2013.