在分析城市土地扩张机制的基础上,建立了用以评价城市土地集约利用水平的计量经济学模型,定量测度了广东省城市土地集约利用水平的区域差异及其演变特征,并与传统的指标权重法的评价结果进行了比较。研究表明：① 论文构建的计量经济学模型能够较好地对城市土地的集约利用水平进行测度。从各社会经济变量弹性系数的大小来看,城市土地的扩张主要受城市人口增加与居民收入增长的驱动,经济增长与固定资产投资的拉动作用并不明显,土地价格的上升与提高土地管理水平可以有效抑制城市土地的无序扩张。② 2003—2012年间广东省城市土地集约利用水平有所提升,但城市间土地集约利用水平的差距较为明显,部分城市土地利用中存在严重的浪费现象。从整体的演变来看,珠三角7市与东西翼7市的土地集约利用水平有所下降,而山区7市的土地集约利用水平有所上升。③ 传统指标权重法可能更适用于诸如工业用地以及开发区用地等生产性用地的评价,如果使用其对全部城市土地进行综合性的评价时,会夸大投入产出对土地集约利用的影响。④ 由于土地报酬递减规律的存在,高投入高产出的土地利用方式并不一定就是经济有效的,基于数据包络分析的研究结果表明,以高投入换取高产出的土地利用方式未必就是集约利用。

Based on the analysis of urban construction land expansion and its driving mechanism, an econometric model to evaluate the level of urban land intensive use was established. The regional differences and the temporal-spatial distribution of the levels of urban land intensive use in Guangdong Province were measured quantitatively. Then the results were compared with that of the traditional index weighting method. The results show that the econometric model proposed in the paper can measure the level of urban land intensive use very well. Viewed from the elastic coefficient of socio-economic variables, the expansion of urban land is mainly affected by the increase of urban population and residents’ income, while the effect of economic growth and fixed asset investment is not obvious. But the rising price of land and the strict land management can effectively inhibit the sprawl of urban land. The level of urban land intensive use was improved in Guangdong Province from 2003 to 2012. But there existed serious waste of land use in some cities. The gaps of land intensive use levels among cities are obvious in Guangdong Province. As viewed from the overall evolution, the levels of intensive use of seven cities in Pearl River Delta and seven cities in west and east Guangdong have declined, while the levels of land use intensive of seven cities on the mountain area have increased. The traditional index weighting method may be more suitable for the evaluation of industrial land, development zone and other productive land. If it was used to make a comprehensive evaluation on all urban land, it may exaggerate the effect of output and investment on land intensive use. Because of the law of diminishing land returns, high input and yield may not be the most economical and effective land use pattern. The results based on Data Envelopment Analysis show that the land use pattern with high investment in exchange for high yield is not necessarily intensive utilization.