基于目前农业水土资源潜力分别测算、相互割裂的实际情况,论文在限定农业水土资源匹配指数概念的基础上,综合考虑气候、种植结构和灌溉效率等的变化对区域需水的影响,提出了以水土资源匹配指数为核心的区域农业水土资源潜力估算方法,根据区域农业水土资源估算方法之需,构建了区域经济、社会、生态效益和水土资源匹配指数最优的多目标水土资源优化配置模型。以内蒙古河套灌区为例,选取2010年为现状年,估算了河套灌区2020、2030年RCP 8.5和RCP 4.5两种情景下的农业水土资源利用潜力,实现了河套灌区水土资源利用潜力的可视化表达。结果表明2020和2030年RCP 8.5和RCP 4.5排放情景下,河套灌区整体的经济效益、生态效益和综合效益都有所增加,社会效益有增有减,水土资源利用潜力均为正值,单位面积上的利用潜力值依次分别为：0.18×10⁴、0.04×10⁴、0.51×10⁴、0.10×10⁴元/hm²;同时除了解放闸灌域,其他各灌域的农业水土资源利用潜力均为正值,在0.31×10⁴~8.24×10⁴元之间,单位综合效益相对2010年均有所提高。

Based on the current situations in calculating agricultural water and soil resource potential in a separated and discontinuous manner, this paper defined and constrained the conception of matching index of agricultural water and soil resource and comprehensively integrate factors related to climate, planting structure, and irrigation efficiency into a whole to evaluate the effects on regional water requirements. To resolve this problem, the paper put forward an innovative conception of calculating soil and water resources potentials, and created and defined the matching index of these two resources. Then, a multi-objective evaluation function and its constraints were used to evaluate the regional economic, ecological and social benefits. A case was studied in Hetao irrigated areas, taking 2010 as a baseline year. Comprehensive potentials and the optimal matching results of water and soil resources under RCP 8.5 and RCP 4.5 scenarios in the predicted years of 2020 and 2030 were calculated respectively. Thus a visible expression of resources utilization potential was realized for the first time. Results under RCP 8.5 and RCP 4.5 scenarios both in 2020 and 2030 showed significant increases in the economic, ecologic and integrated benefits, but social benefits were unstable. The utilization potentials of water and soil resources showed positive values, that was 0.18×10⁴, 0.04×10⁴, 0.51×10⁴, and 0.10×10⁴ yuan/hm², respectively. At the meantime, except Jiefangzha Irrigated District, the other irrigated districts all had increases in soil and water utilization potentials compared to 2010, and the per unit integrated benefits were between 0.31×10⁴-8.24×10⁴ yuan/hm².