随着煤炭资源开发重心的向西转移,能源资源的成本优势将可能吸引能源密集型产业和相关的加工制造业向西转移,从而将资源优势转化为产业优势,促进区域经济发展.论文利用DMRCGE模型和情景分析定量模拟了煤炭开发重心西移对能源密集型产业和制造业空间分布的影响.研究发现,煤炭资源开发重心西移,通过成本驱动效应和产业关联效应的作用,将促进能源密集型产业向西转移,有利于把资源优势转化为能源密集型产业优势,促进区域经济发展,有利于缩小资源富集区域与经济发达区域的经济差异;但资源优势转化为加工制造业的优势仍将面临严峻的挑战.新疆煤炭生产比例的提升,将带动新疆能源密集型产业的份额增加,有利于新疆依托本地市场提升制造业份额.

With the westward shift of coal production, the cost advantage of energy resources might attract the energy intensive industries and related manufacturing industry to the western China. It may transform the resource advantage into industrial advantage and promote the regional economy. This paper aims to simulate the impact that the shift of coal production acts on the spatial distribution of energy intensive industries and related manufacturing industry by using DMRCGE model and scenario analysis. It is found that the westward shift of coal production will increase the shares of energy intensive industries in the inland resource- aboundant provinces under the effect of cost driving and industrial linkage. It may enhance the economic growth of these provinces and alleviate regional disparity between the inland areas and the costal areas. However, it still faces a severe challenge to transform the resource advantage into the manufacturing advantage. Increasing the coal production in Xinjiang may lead to the increase of the share energy intensive industries in Xinjiang. There is also potentials for Xinjiang to develop local market-oriented manufacturing indutry.