采用空间自相关、聚类分析和多元回归模型等方法,论文探讨了2000 年以来黑龙江省粮食生产的时空动态及其主要影响因素.结果表明:① 黑龙江省粮食生产规模持续扩大,其中,大豆播种面积及其占农作物总播种面积的比重均经历了“上升—下降”的波动过程,玉米和水稻播种面积不断扩大,但其占农作物播种面积的比重分别在2009 和2011 年超过大豆;② 黑龙江省粮食生产具有一定的空间相关性,大豆空间集聚最显著,玉米次之,水稻最不明显;③ 粮食生产区域化和专门化态势增强,松嫩平原北部及大小兴安岭地区、松嫩平原东南部和三江平原北部分别形成了以大豆、玉米和水稻为主的粮食生产类型区;④ 多元回归分析表明,农业投入、经济环境、技术水平、市场因素是影响黑龙江省粮食生产及其结构时空变化的主要因素.

As one of the most vital grain production areas in China, Heilongjiang Province plays an important role in guaranteeing Chinese's grain security. This paper examines the spatio-temporal pattern and driving factors of grain production in Heilongjiang Province based on the models of ESDA, K-Means Cluster and multi-regression, and the aim is to illuminate the current situation of grain production and provide the scientific basis for promoting the regional ability of guaranteeing national grain security and sustainable development of agriculture inHeilongjiang Province. The results show that the scale of grain production in Heilongjiang Province keeps increasing, and both the seeding area and proportion of soybean experience a wave of “ascent-descent”, while the seeding areas and proportions of corn and rice expand constantly, and they both exceed soybean in 2009 and 2011, respectively. By the end of 2012, the planted acreage of soybean, corn and rice accounted for 17.73%, 45.12% and 26% of the total grain acreages, respectively. Moreover, corn and rice has become the main grain crops in Heilongjiang Province, while the importance of soybean decreased in some way. In addition, the grain production in Heilongjiang Province has certain characteristics of spatial correlation. Of which, the soybean has significant spatial agglomeration, and its Moran's I is 0.6011. Corn takes the second place and shows a weakening trend after 2004, for its Moran's I decreased from 0.6135 in 2004 to 0.48 in 2012. The spatial gathering of rice is the least evident but it began to increase since 2009, and its Moran's I was 0.3709 in 2012. The results also show that the regional types of grain production have a significant spatio-temporal variation and the trend of specialization and regionalization is enhanced. The northern Songnen Plain, Da Hinggan and Xiao Hinggan mountains, as well as the north of Sanjiang Plain have respectively formed the typical areas of soybean, corn and rice. Moreover, multi-regression analysis demonstrates that the agricultural investment, economic environment, technical level and market factor are the main factors that influence the structure and the spatio-temporal variation of grain production in Heilongjiang Province.