通过构建一个扩展的竞争型经济-能源-碳排放投入产出表,运用三层嵌套结构式I-O SDA 技术,从整体情况、分产业、工业分行业3 个层面,对1997—2007 年北京的碳排放增量进行了分解。结果表明:消费、投资、调出和出口等经济规模增长要素,以272.46%的贡献率成为增排的主要因素,而能源消费强度变动效应,则以-237.13%的贡献率成为减排的决定性因素;在规模扩张各效应中,调出和消费超过投资和出口达8 403.38×104 t,是增排的主要贡献者;2002—2007 年间以“高碳”为特征的新一轮工业化,使该期增排占到1997—2007年总增量的86.41%;服务业的贡献率是75.93%,为增排的第一大部门,但2002—2007 年工业超出服务业1 036.40×104 t;重制造业的贡献率是1 030.76%,为增排的重点行业,而能源工业则以-992.81%的贡献率,成为减排的重点行业;各时段各效应在不同产业、工业不同行业发挥的作用大小不同且不够稳定。
An extension model of buys in and import-competition economy-energy-CO2 emission input-output model was designed using three-level nested method of Structural Decomposition Analysis to decompose CO2 emission increase in Beijing during 1997-2007 from three aspects as integral, industries and industrial sectors. The research results are following: The main factors for CO2 emission increase were the effect of economic scale expansion such as consumption, investment, export and sell, their contribution rate was 272.46%; the dominant factor for reducing CO2 emission is the changing effect of energy consumption intensity, its contribution rate was-237.13% ; in effect of economic scale expansion, sell and consumption became the main contributors for carbon emissions increase with over investment and export reaching 8403.38×104 t; since the new round industrialization with "high carbon" features, the increase of CO2 emissions in 2002-2007 was 86.41% of the total emissions of 1997-2007; service industry was the first large sector of carbon emissions increase, its contribution rate was 75.93%, but industrial carbon emissions increase had surpassed service industry by 1036.40×104 t during 2002-2007; as for industrial branch aspects, heavy manufacturing was the key industry of carbon emissions increase, and its contribution rate was 1030.76%; energy industrial was the major industry of carbon emission reduction, and its contribution rate was-992.81% ; the effects played different roles and were not stable enough in different industries or different industrial sectors in each period.
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