基于CGE模型的供水投资对经济影响研究——以黑龙江省为例
收稿日期: 2012-04-12
修回日期: 2012-08-21
网络出版日期: 2013-04-20
基金资助
2011水利部重大课题-水重大(2011-1-2);水利部公益性行业科研专项(201001014)。
A Study on Economic Impact of Water Investment Based on CGE Model——A Case of Heilongjiang Province
Received date: 2012-04-12
Revised date: 2012-08-21
Online published: 2013-04-20
为缓解水资源供需矛盾,我国政府投入大量资金兴修水利。如何评价供水投资效果及其对国民经济产生的影响,以便于确定合理的投资定位与投资决策,已成为目前亟待解决的热点问题之一。构建黑龙江省静态CGE模型,根据黑龙江省近几年供水投资实际增长规模设计三种投资方案,定量估算一定的供水投资政策对黑龙江省经济总量、其他部门投资、不同部门的总产出和供用水量的潜在影响,结果表明:①供水部门投资能拉动国民经济发展,当投资增长规模约为40%~50%时,GDP增长速率最大;②供水部门投资增长会拉动高用水工业和农业部门投资上涨,导致一般用水工业、建筑业、一般用水服务业和高用水服务业投资下降;③各部门总产出增长率大小依次为高用水工业、高用水服务业、一般用水服务业、农业和建筑业,各部门用水量增长最快的是高用水工业,其次为高用水服务业、一般用水服务业和建筑业;④黑龙江省供水部门投资增长规模大于43%时,供水部门总产出方能满足用水需求,有利于保证城镇供水安全。综合GDP增长速率考虑,黑龙江省适宜的供水投资增长规模应为43%~50%。
赵晶, 黄晓丽, 倪红珍, 王立坤, 于靖 . 基于CGE模型的供水投资对经济影响研究——以黑龙江省为例[J]. 自然资源学报, 2013 , 28(4) : 696 -704 . DOI: 10.11849/zrzyxb.2013.04.016
China invested a large number of funds in building water conservancy projects in order to alleviate the contradiction of water supply and demand. However, how to evaluate the effect and impact of investment on national economy has become one of the hot spots urgently to be solved for reasonally identifying investment direction and investment decision making. A static CGE model of Heilongjiang Province is built, designing the three investment programs to make quantitative estimate about potential impact of water conservancy investment policies on the total economic output, the total output of different sectors, other sectors investment and the quantity of water supply in Heilongjiang Province. The results show that: 1) the water investment can stimulate the development of the national economy, when the scale of investment growth is 40% to 50%, GDP growth is the fastest; 2) the water sector investment growth will boost investment rise in high water consumption sectors of industry and agriculture, while investment decline in general water industry, construction, general-water services and high-water service; 3) the order of the total output growth rate of the various departments is high-water industry, high-water services, general-water services, agriculture and construction, while the output of general-water industry reduced, the fastest growth rate of water consumption is high-water industry, followed by the high-water services, general-water service and construction; and 4) the water sector investment growth is larger than 43% in order to meet the demand for water, and suitable water investment growth is 43% to 50%.
Key words： CGE; water investment; economic impacts; water quantity
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