中国化石能源消费碳排放与经济增长关系研究
收稿日期: 2011-01-06
修回日期: 2012-06-26
网络出版日期: 2013-03-20
基金资助
国家发改委应对气候变化司2011年度项目"中国绿色经济发展思路研究";国家发改委委托课题"河南省济源市低碳发展战略研究"。
Analysis on Relationship between Carbon Emissions from Fossil Energy Consumption and Economic Growth in China
Received date: 2011-01-06
Revised date: 2012-06-26
Online published: 2013-03-20
化石能源过度消费导致的气候变化问题引发了全世界对经济发展模式的关注,论文运用计量经济学方法研究了中国化石能源消费碳排放与经济增长的关系,测算了中国1953-2010年化石能源消费引起的碳排放总量,建立了碳排放总量和国内生产总值的时序计量经济模型,通过协整检验、误差修正模型、基于VAR模型的脉冲响应函数、因果关系检验,分析了二者之间的长短期关系,结果表明:1953-2010年,我国的化石能源消费碳排放总量和国内生产总值之间存在长期均衡的协整关系和短期动态调整机制,通过短期调节,可以自动实现二者之间的长期均衡。当期GDP对碳排放总量的当期波动有显著性影响,每增加1%的GDP便会增加0.719%的碳排放量,上期误差对碳排放总量的当期波动调整幅度较大,单位调整比例为-0.102。利用脉冲响应函数波形图对碳排放量与经济增长之间的影响及响应进行了20期的详细刻画,揭示了二者之间复杂的短期动态关系。1953-2010年,存在从碳排放总量到GDP的单向Granger因果关系,碳排放是经济增长的Granger原因,而经济增长不是碳排放的Granger原因,说明从过去58 a的整体状况来看,高碳排放推动了经济增长,而经济增长并未导致明显的碳排放增加。研究结果将对中国制定节能减排和碳减排政策提供依据和支撑。
关键词： 化石能源; 碳排放; 协整检验; Granger因果关系检验
武红, 谷树忠, 关兴良, 鲁莎莎 . 中国化石能源消费碳排放与经济增长关系研究[J]. 自然资源学报, 2013 , 28(3) : 381 -390 . DOI: 10.11849/zrzyxb.2013.03.003
Climate change caused by excessive fossil energy consumption has drawn attention of the researchers around the world to focus on economic development pattern. Econometric method is used to study relationship between carbon emissions from fossil energy consumption and economic growth in China in the paper. First, we estimate carbon emissions from fossil energy consumption in 1953-2010 in China. Second, we establish an econometric model of relationship between carbon emissions and Gross Domestic Product(GDP). Finally, we analyze relationships between two variables through cointegration test, ECM model, impulse response function based on VAR model and Granger causality test. The results show that there is cointegration relation of long-term equilibrium and short-term dynamic adjustment mechanism between carbon emissions from fossil energy and GDP during 1953-2010 in China. Long-term equilibrium will automatically be achieved through short-term dynamic adjustment mechanism. Current GDP has a significant effect on carbon emissions. Every 1% increase of GDP leads to 0.719% increase of carbon emissions. Wide adjustment range of previous error to current carbon emissions attains -0.102. Impulse response function waveform chart between carbon emissions and economic growth depict influence and response in 20 stages, revealing complex dynamic short-term relationship. Unidirectional Granger causalities from carbon emissions to GDP are as follows. Carbon emissions are the Granger cause for economic growth but economic growth is not the Granger cause for carbon emissions. High carbon emissions have promoted economic growth while economic growth hasn’t resulted in significant carbon emissions increase in the past 58 years. The results will provide basis and support for policy making on energy saving and emission reduction and carbon emissions reduction in China.
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