东北强降水时空变化的特征和原因分析
收稿日期: 2011-09-09
修回日期: 2012-05-10
网络出版日期: 2013-01-19
基金资助
国家科技基础条件平台项目"气象科学数据共享试点"(2005DKA31700-08-05);中国气象局气象新技术推广项目(CMATG2008M12);国家自然科学基金资助项目(30571079);公益性行业科研专项"气象科技项目/成果管理评估系统2期"(GYHY201206032)。
Spatial and Temporal Characteristics of Heavy Precipitation Long-Term Changes in Northeast China and Causation Analysis
Received date: 2011-09-09
Revised date: 2012-05-10
Online published: 2013-01-19
利用东北地区近45 a(1961—2005年)4—9月逐日降水量资料计算了强降水集中度和集中期,分析了强降水集中度和集中期时空变化特征,讨论了影响强降水集中度和集中期的环流特征变化。结果发现,东北强降水集中度与强降水有很好的相关性,对于强降水有着很好的指示作用。从空间分布上看东北雨季强降水集中度由东向西趋于集中。从时间变化方面来看,1960年代中期到1980年代初,强降水集中度处于低值区,而在1991年之后东北地区强降水集中度大多处于高值区。强降水集中期仅在1970年代处于低值偏多的时期。对于东北不同区域大部分地区(除东北西北部外)在1990年代之后集中度都有所增加,集中度大值年出现的频率增加,而东北西北部的变化正好相反。东北地区强降水集中度偏高时,东北地区整层处于低压中心,在东北东部海面上有高压存在。东北地区存在着偏西气流和东南暖湿气流的交汇,在40～50°N纬度范围内高度场呈"+－+"波动。集中度偏高时东北东部地区有上升的垂直速度中心,并且上升速度随高度升高(300 hPa以下)而增强。东北地区水汽主要来源于鄂霍次克海冷湿空气。在东北地区存在着水汽通量散度的负距平中心,形成水汽异常辐合区,有利于强降水的出现。
邹立尧, 丁一汇, 王冀 . 东北强降水时空变化的特征和原因分析[J]. 自然资源学报, 2013 , 28(1) : 137 -147 . DOI: 10.11849/zrzyxb.2013.01.014
Based on daily precipitation data from April to September within 45 years (1961-2005), this paper calculates the precipitation concentration degree (PCD) and precipitation concentration period (PCP) of the heavy rainfall, analyzes the temporal and spatial characteristic of heavy precipitation PCD and PCP, finally discusses the impact of PCD and PCP on circulation background features. The results showed that PCD in Northeast China has a very good correlation with heavy precipitation, which is a very good indication for heavy precipitation. The PCD was increased from east to west in spatial distribution. In view of the temporal, the mid-1960s to the early 1980s, we saw a low-value period of the PCD, and after 1991, PCD in Northeast China was mostly concentrated in high-value period. Heavy precipitation PCP had many low-values only in the 1970s. For most parts of Northeast China (except for northwestern part) PCD increased after the 1990s with a frequent increase in high value years while the changes in the northwestern are just opposite. When the PCD tended to be high, low pressure center existed through the region with the occurrence of high pressure center over the sea surface in the east. The existence of intersection of the west-trend air current with the southeast warm-moist air current is observed along with "+ - +" fluctuations between 40-50 °N latitude. There is a rising vertical velocity center in the east of Northeast China when PCD is high and speed enhanced with the rise of the altitude (below 300 hPa). The water vapor mainly comes from the cold wet air of the Okhotsk Sea water. In Northeast China there is a water vapor flux divergence of the negative anomaly center, and the formation of the abnormal water vapor convergence zone is conducive to the emergence of heavy precipitation.
Key words： PCD; PCP; circulation background; vapor flux
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