中国工业能源消费强度的影响因素研究——基于省域工业数据的实证分析
收稿日期: 2011-12-19
修回日期: 2012-04-29
网络出版日期: 2013-01-19
基金资助
国家自然科学基金(41101138)。
Decomposition of Energy Intensity Change in Industrial Sub-Sectors and Its Spatio-Temporal Variation in China
Received date: 2011-12-19
Revised date: 2012-04-29
Online published: 2013-01-19
基于分解方法,把中国各省域1985—2008年间不同时期的工业能源消费强度变化分解为规模效应、结构效应和技术效应。结果表明:规模效应、技术效应和结构效应在不同省域及不同的时段内,强度和方向都有所不同。规模效应在1985—1995、1995—2004年间两个时期都是工业能源消费增长的主导因素,且随着时间推进,作用强度也在显著增加;同时规模效应强度的区域差异并不显著;而在2004—2008年间,规模效应则出现明显分异,增长能源与节约能源两种效应同时并存。技术效应在1995—2004、2004—2008年两个时期都是朝着节约工业能源的方向发展,表明随着时间的推进,技术效应在各个省域的作用在逐步显现,但其大小对不同区域来说有所不同;在1985—1995年时期内,技术效应的大小和方向都不一。总体来看,技术进步的节能效应在一些省域有待提高,这样才有助于"积极主动"地促进工业能源消费降低。结构效应在三个时期方向不一,仅在少数地区表现为节能作用;且较之以上两种效应,结构效应的作用强度较小;结构效应与各地区工业发展阶段密切相关,其节能潜力仍需充分挖掘。
杨威, 王成金, 金凤君, 李玲玲 . 中国工业能源消费强度的影响因素研究——基于省域工业数据的实证分析[J]. 自然资源学报, 2013 , 28(1) : 81 -91 . DOI: 10.11849/zrzyxb.2013.01.009
Differing from previous studies primarily focusing on the change of the total energy consumption intensity of China, the paper analyzes aggregate industrial energy intensity changes in 25 selected industrial sub-sectors of 30 provinces in China (not including Tibet, Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan due to no data), using the adaptive additive decomposition method. The changes of industrial energy consumption are decomposed into industrial structure effect, technological effect and economic scale effect. By employing adaptive additive decomposition analysis, it was found that the strength and direction of the three effects are different in different provinces and times intervals. Economic scale effect played a dominant role in increasing industrial energy intensity, and its difference is not significant in the two periods 1985-1995 and 1995-2004. But, it played two roles in increasing and reducing industrial energy intensity and its difference is significant in the period 2004-2008. Technical effect played a dominant role in reducing industrial energy intensity, and its difference is significant in different provinces in the two periods 1995-2004 and 2004-2008. And in the period 1985-1995, its strength and direction are both different. Overall, its role in reducing industrial energy intensity needs to be improved in some provinces, to reduce proactively industrial energy consumption. Structural effect played two roles in increasing and reducing industrial energy intensity and its difference is significant in different provinces all the time. Its strength was small in most provinces except Beijing, Shanghai and Guangdong. This indicated that its urgent need is to tap the potential of the structural effect in reducing industrial energy intensity. Thus, significant steps should be taken in effective structural adjustment to reduce industrial energy consumption in the future.
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