水资源约束下江苏省城镇开发安全预警
收稿日期: 2011-03-24
修回日期: 2011-12-06
网络出版日期: 2012-12-20
基金资助
国家自然科学基金项目(41001047);江苏省国土科技项目(国土开发度评价)。
Urban Development Security Warning of Jiangsu Province under Water Restriction
Received date: 2011-03-24
Revised date: 2011-12-06
Online published: 2012-12-20
城镇规模的扩张离不开水资源的支撑,水资源承载力是影响城镇开发的重要因素。论文提出一种以水资源约束测算城镇开发度阈值及从"状态-趋势-效应"尺度进行开发度预警的方法,并以江苏省为例进行实证探索,最终划分综合预警分区。结果显示:到2020年,苏州、 无锡、 常州、 南京将成为重度预警区;徐州、 连云港为高度预警区;镇江、 扬州、 泰州、 南通为中度预警区;淮安、 宿迁、 盐城为轻度预警区。利用GM(1,1)模型和相关方程,对城镇开发度、 开发容量、 开发临界时点及开发后温度变化与碳汇损益定性定量化,进行整个开发过程的模拟,客观反映城镇开发安全变化的动态性,以期为政府制定差别化的开发政策和预警措施提供科学依据和理论支撑。
戴靓, 陈东湘, 吴绍华, 李如海, 周生路, 陈逸, 黄贤金 . 水资源约束下江苏省城镇开发安全预警[J]. 自然资源学报, 2012 , 27(12) : 2039 -2047 . DOI: 10.11849/zrzyxb.2012.12.005
Urban expansion can’t go on without water resources, as water resources carrying capacity is an crucial factor to urban development. In this article, we put forward a method of calculating urban development degree threshold based on water constraints and urban development security warning. Taken Jiangsu Province for example, we made a research on urban development security warning from aspects of status, trends and effects, and then we made a division of comprehensive early warning partition. The results show that: by 2020, Suzhou, Wuxi, Changzhou and Nanjing will be severe warning area. Xuzhou and Lianyungang will be high warning area and Zhenjiang, Yangzhou, Taizhou and Nantong will be moderate warning area, while Huaian, Yancheng and Suqian will be mild warning area. Through GM(1, 1) model and related equations, we defined and quantified the indexes of urban development degree, development capacity, development critical point, population and temperature changes after development. We aim at simulating the whole process of urban development, reflecting the dynamic of urban development in order to provide scientific basis and theoretic support for government in formulating diverse urban development policies and warning measures.
Key words： water resources; threshold; Jiangsu; urban development; warning
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