红河流域1960-2007年极端降水事件的时空变化特征
收稿日期: 2011-08-30
修回日期: 2012-03-12
网络出版日期: 2012-11-20
基金资助
国家科技支撑计划项目(2011BAC09B07);云南大学理工科校级科研项目(2010YB019);云南省教育厅科学研究基金项目(09Y0031)。
Spatial and Temporal Variations of Extreme Precipitation Events in the Red River Basin during 1960-2007
Received date: 2011-08-30
Revised date: 2012-03-12
Online published: 2012-11-20
利用中国境内红河流域23个气象站点1960-2007年的逐日降水数据,基于极端降水指数分析流域极端降水事件的时空变化特征。结果表明:极端降水频次和强度表现出从东南向西北递减的特征,高值区分布在江城-绿春-金平-河口一线以南,低值区分布在巍山-南涧-弥渡一线以北及元江中游河谷;极端降水频次峰值出现在7月,汛期极端降水出现频次占全年的91.48%。1960-2007年期间,极端降水指数均表现出上升趋势,其中,极端降水贡献率和平均日降水强度上升趋势较为显著,线性趋势值分别为0.68%·(10 a)-1和0.17 mm·d-1·(10 a)-1。除了平均日降水强度整体上表现出上升的趋势外,其余5个极端降水指数趋势变化具有空间差异性,增加的站点大多分布在李仙江上游、 元江中上游和藤条江流域,减小的站点大多分布在李仙江下游、 元江下游和盘龙河流域。
李运刚, 何大明, 胡金明, 柳江 . 红河流域1960-2007年极端降水事件的时空变化特征[J]. 自然资源学报, 2012 , 27(11) : 1908 -1917 . DOI: 10.11849/zrzyxb.2012.11.010
The temporal and spatial variations of extreme precipitation were studied by using extreme precipitation indices Based on the daily precipitation data of 23 meteorological stations over the Red River Basin in China from 1960 to 2007. The intensity and frequency of extreme precipitation gradually reduces from southeast to northwest, high value area was distributed along the south of the Jiangcheng-Lüchun-Jinping-Hekou while low value area existed along the north of Weishan-Nanjian-Midu and the middle reaches of the Yuanjiang River Valley. The peak of extremely heavy precipitation occurred in July, while extreme precipitation occurrence frequency in flood season accounted for 91.48% of the annual total. In the past 48 years, an increasing trend was observed in indices such as the total wet day precipitation (PRCPTOT), the maximum 1-day precipitation amount (Rx1d), the maximum 5-day precipitation amount (Rx5d), the number of heavy precipitation days (R95N), the percent of total precipitation from heavy precipitation (R95T) and the simple daily intensity index (SDII), among which R95T and SDII increased significantly at the rates of 0.68%·(10 a)-1 and 0.17 mm·d-1·(10 a)-1 respectively. The trends of these indices exhibited spatial differences except for SDII, regions with the increasing trends are distributed mostly in the upstreams of the Lixianjiang and Yuanjiang rivers, as well as Tengtiao River Basin, while those of the decreasing trends were found in the downstreams of the Lixianjiang and Yuanjiang rivers, and Panlong River Basin as well.
[1] 翟盘茂, 王萃萃, 李威. 极端降水事件变化的观测研究[J]. 气候变化研究进展, 2007, 3(3): 144-148.[ZHAI Pan-mao, WANG Cui-cui, LI Wei. A review on study of change in precipitation extreme. Advances in Climate Change Research, 2007, 3(3): 144-148.]
[2] Alexander L V, Zhang X, Peterson T C, et al. Global observed changes in daily climate extremes of temperature and precipitation [J]. Journal of Geophysical Research, 2006, 111: D0510.
[3] Min S K, Zhang X B, Zwiers F W, et al. Human contribution to more-intense precipitation extremes [J]. Nature, 2011, 470: 378-381.
[4] Pall P, Aina T, Stone D A, et al. Anthropogenic greenhouse gas contribution to flood risk in England and Wales in autumn 2000 [J]. Nature, 2011, 470: 382-385.
[5] ZHAI Pan-mao, ZHANG Xue-bin, WANG Hui, et al. Trends in total precipitation and frequency of daily precipitation extremes over China [J]. Journal of Climate, 2005(4): 1096-1107.
[6] 杨金虎, 江志红, 王鹏祥, 等. 中国年极端降水事件的时空分布特征[J]. 气候与环境研究, 2008, 13(1): 75-83.[YANG Jin-hu, JIANG Zhi-hong, WANG Peng-xiang, et al. Temporal and spatial characteristic of extreme precipitation event in China. Climatic and Environmental Research, 2008, 13(1): 75-83.]
[7] 陈峪, 陈鲜艳, 任国玉. 中国主要河流流域极端降水变化特征[J]. 气候变化研究进展, 2010, 6(4): 265-269.[CHEN Yu, CHEN Xian-yan, REN Guo-yu. Variation of extreme precipitation over large river basin in China. Advances in Climate Change Research, 2010, 6(4): 265-269.]
[8] 王志福, 钱永甫. 中国极端降水事件的频数和强度特征[J]. 水科学进展, 2009, 20(1): 1-9.[WANG Zhi-fu, QIAN Yong-fu. Frequency and intensity of extreme precipitation events in China. Advances in Water Science, 2009, 20(1): 1-9.]
[9] 龚道溢, 韩晖. 华北农牧交错带夏季极端气候的趋势分析[J]. 地理学报, 2004, 59(2): 230-238.[GONG Dao-yi, HAN Hui. Extreme climate events in northern China over the last 50 years. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2004, 59(2): 230-238.]
[10] 张爱英, 高霞, 任国玉. 华北中部近45a极端降水事件变化特征[J]. 干旱地理, 2008, 26(4): 46-50.[ZHANG Ai-ying, GAO Xia, REN Guo-yu. Characteristic of extreme precipitation events change in central North China in recent 45 years. Arid Meteorology, 2008, 26(4): 46-50.]
[11] 孙风华, 吴志坚, 杨素英. 东北地区近50年来极端降水和干燥事件时空演变特征[J]. 生态学杂志, 2006, 25(7): 779-784.[SUN Feng-hua, WU Zhi-jian, YANG Su-ying. Temporal and spatial variations of extreme precipitation and dryness events in Northeast China in last 50 years. Chinese Journal of Ecology, 2006, 25(7): 779-784.]
[12] 杨莲梅. 新疆极端降水的气候变化[J]. 地理学报, 2003, 58(4): 577-583.[YANG Lian-mei. Climate change of extreme precipitation in Xinjiang. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2003, 58(4): 577-583.]
[13] 李志, 郑粉莉, 刘文兆. 1961-2007年黄土高原极端降水事件的时空变化分析[J]. 自然资源学报, 2010, 25(2): 291-299.[LI Zhi, ZHENG Fen-li, LIU Wen-zhao. Analyzing the spatial-temporal changes of extreme precipitation events in the Loess Plateau from 1961 to 2007. Journal of Natural Resources, 2010, 25(2): 291-299.]
[14] YOU Qing-long, KANG Shi-chang, Aguilar E, et al. Changes in daily climate extremes in the eastern and central Tibetan Plateau during 1961-2005 [J]. Journal of Geophysical Research, 2008, 113: D07101.
[15] 苏布达, 姜彤, 任国玉, 等. 长江流域1960-2004年极端强降水时空变化趋势[J]. 气候变化研究进展, 2006, 2(1): 9-14.[SU Bu-da, JIANG Tong, REN Guo-yu, et al. Observed trends of precipitation extremes in the Yangtze River Basin during 1960-2004. Advances in Climate Change Research, 2006, 2(1): 9-14.]
[16] 秦剑. 低纬高原天气气候[M]. 北京: 气象出版社, 1997: 1-10.[QIN Jian. Weather and Climate over Low Latitude Plateau. Beijing: China Meteorological Press, 1997: 1-10.]
[17] 刘丽, 曹杰, 何大明, 等. 中国低纬高原汛期强降水事件的年代际变化及其成因研究[J]. 大气科学, 2011, 35(3): 435-443.[LIU Li, CAO Jie, HE Da-ming, et al. The interdecadal variability of heavy rainfall events in flood season over low-latitude highlands of China and associated causes. Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences, 2011, 35(3): 435-443.]
[18] 云南减灾委员会. 云南减灾年鉴(1991-1995)[M]. 昆明: 云南科技出版社, 1997: 163-173.[Yunnan Committee for Disaster Reduction. Yunnan Yearbook of Disaster Reduction (1991-1995). Kunming: Yunnan Science and Technology Press, 1997: 163-173.]
[19] 云南减灾委员会. 云南减灾年鉴(2004-2005)[M]. 昆明: 云南科技出版社, 2006: 143-145.[Yunnan Committee for Disaster Reduction. Yunnan Yearbook of Disaster Reduction (2004－2005). Kunming: Yunnan Science and Technology Press, 2006: 143-145.]
[20] ZHANG Xue-bin, Aguilar E, Sensoy S, et al. Trends in Middle East climate extreme indices from 1950 to 2003 [J]. Journal of Geophysical Research, 2005, 110: D22104.
[21] 胡金明, 何大明, 李运刚. 从湿季降水分异论哀牢山季风交汇[J]. 地球科学进展, 2011, 26(2): 181-192.[HU Jin-ming, HE Da-ming, LI Yun-gang. Discussion on monsoons' interfacing around Ailaoshan through analyzing regional variation of wet season rainfall. Advances in Earth Science, 2011, 26(2): 181-192.]
[22] 万云霞, 张万诚, 肖子牛. 中国西南纵向岭谷地区可降水量的变化特征[J]. 自然资源学报, 2008, 23(4): 657-664.[WAN Yun-xia, ZHANG Wan-cheng, XIAO Zi-niu. The variations of atmospheric precipitable water over Longitudinal Range-Gorge Region (LRGR) in southwestern China. Journal of Natural Resources, 2008, 23(4): 657-664.]
[23] LI Yun-gang, HE Da-ming, YE Chang-qing. The spatial and temporal variation of runoff of Red River Basin in Yunnan [J]. Journal of Geographical Sciences, 2008, 18(3): 308-318.
[24] YOU Qing-long, KANG Shi-chang, Aguilar E, et al. Changes in daily climate extremes in China and their connection to the large scale atmospheric circulation during 1961-2003 [J]. Climate Dynamic, 2011, 36: 2399-2417.
[25] 江志红, 陈威霖, 宋结, 等. 7个IPCC AR4模式对中国地区极端降水指数模拟能力的评估及其未来情境预估[J]. 大气科学, 2009, 33(1): 109-120.[JIANG Zhi-hong, CHEN Wei-lin, SONG Jie, et al. Projection and evaluation of the precipitation extremes indices over China based on seven IPCC AR4 coupled climate models. Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences, 2009, 33(1): 109-120.]
/
| 〈 |
|
〉 |