利用IPCC的参考方法测算并比较分析了2005-2009年我国30个省(市、自治区)的CO2排放总量、人均排放量、排放强度、综合能源排放系数等重要指标,并在此基础上,依据人均GDP、第二产业比重和能源利用结构与碳排放强度的关系,将各省(市、自治区)划分为不同的CO2排放类型。研究结果表明,省域间各指标差异较大,影响碳排放的因素也不尽相同。省域减排的政策、途径和措施须充分考虑各自的经济发展水平、产业结构和能源利用结构等因素。
Based on IPCC’s reference approach for carbon dioxide assessment, the paper calculated and compared the indicators including total CO2 emissions, per capita emissions, emissions intensity and integrated energy emission factors from 2005 to 2009 for 30 provinces in China. On the basis of relationships between CO2 emission intensity and per capita GDP, the proportion of secondary industry and the structure of energy utilization, 30 provinces have been classified into several different emission groups. It has been found that significant differences in key indicators exist among provinces, and the major factors controlling provincial carbon emissions are not completely the same. Therefore, the level of economic development, industrial structure, the structure of energy utilization and other factors should be fully considered when developing policies, approaches and measures for provincial emission reduction.
[1] 王铮, 朱永彬. 我国各省区碳排放量状况及减排对策研究[J]. 中国科学院院刊, 2008, 23(2): 109-115.[WANG Zheng, ZHU Yong-bin. Study on the status of carbon emission in provincial scale of China and countermeasures for reducing its emission. Bulletin of Chinese Academy of Sciences, 2008, 23(2): 109-115.]
[2] 徐大丰. 我国碳排放结构的区域差异分析[J]. 江西社会科学, 2010(4): 79-82.[XU Da-feng. An analysis of regional differences in structures of carbon emission in China. Jiangxi Social Sciences, 2010(4): 79-82.]
[3] 岳超, 胡雪洋, 贺灿飞, 等. 1995-2007年我国省区碳排放及碳强度的分析——碳排放与社会发展Ⅲ[J]. 北京大学学报: 自然科学版, 2010, 46(4): 510-516.[YUE Chao, HU Xue-yang, HE Can-fei, et al. Provincial carbon emissions and carbon intensity in China from 1995 to 2007: Carbon emissions and social development Ⅲ. Acta Scientiarum Naturalium Universitatis Pekinensis, 2010, 46(4): 510-516.]
[4] 杜官印, 蔡运龙, 李双成. 1997-2007 年中国分省化石能源碳排放强度变化趋势分析[J]. 地理与地理信息科学, 2010, 26(5): 76-81.[DU Guan-yin, CAI Yun-long, LI Shuang-cheng. Fossil-fuel carbon emission intensity change of each province in China during 1997-2007. Geography and Geo-Information Science, 2010, 26(5): 76-81.]
[5] 刘占成, 王安建, 于汶加, 等. 中国区域碳排放研究[J]. 地球学报, 2010, 31(5): 727-732.[LIU Zhan-cheng, WANG An-jian, YU Wen-jia, et al. Research on regional carbon emissions in China. Acta Geoscientica Sinica, 2010, 31(5): 727-732.]
[6] 彭觅, 吕斌, 张纯, 等. 中国能源碳排放的区域差异及其影响因素分析[J]. 城市发展研究, 2010, 17(7): 6-11.[PENG Mi, Lü Bin, ZHANG Chun, et al. On the spatial differentia of carbon emissions in energy and its influencing factors on provincial level in China. Urban Studies, 2010, 17 (7): 6-11.]
[7] 曲建升, 王琴, 陈发虎, 等. 我国二氧化碳排放的区域分析[J]. 第四纪研究, 2010, 30(3): 466-472.[QU Jian-sheng, WANG Qin, CHEN Fa-hu, et al. Provincial analysis on the carbon dioxide emission in China. Quaternary Sciences, 2010, 30(3): 466-472.]
[8] 曲建升, 刘谨, 陈发虎. 欠发达地区温室气体排放特征与对策研究[M]. 北京: 气象出版社, 2009.[QU Jian-sheng, LIU Jin, CHEN Fa-hu. An Analysis on Characteristics and Solutions of GHG Emission in Less-developed Regions. Beijing: China Meteorological Press, 2009.]
[9] 张志强, 曲建升, 曾静静. 温室气体排放评价指标及其定量分析[J]. 地理学报, 2008, 63(7): 693-702.[ZHANG Zhi-qiang, QU Jian-sheng, ZENG Jing-jing. A quantitative comparison and analytical study on the assessment indicators of green-house gases emissions. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2008, 63(7): 693-702.]
[10] 张志强, 曾静静, 曲建升. 世界主要国家碳排放强度历史变化趋势及相关关系研究[J]. 地球科学进展, 2011, 26(8): 1-11.[ZHANG Zhi-qiang, ZENG Jing-jing, QU Jian-sheng. An analysis of the trends of carbon emission intensity and its relationship with economic development for major countries. Advances in Earth Science, 2011, 26(8): 1-11.]
[11] Roberts T, Grimes P. Carbon intensity and economic development 1962-1991: A brief exploration of the environmental Kuznets curve [J]. World Development, 1997, 25(2): 191-198.
[12] 沈小波, 戴平生. 中国碳强度的影响因素[J]. 气候变化研究进展, 2011, 7(1): 54-58.[SHEN Xiao-bo, DAI Ping-sheng. Factors affecting China’s carbon intensity. Advances in Climate Change Research, 2011, 7(1): 54-58.]
[13] FAN Ying, LIU Lan-Cui, WU Gang, et al. Changes in carbon intensity in China: Empirical findings from 1980-2003 [J]. Ecological Economics, 2007, 62: 683-691.
[14] 虞义华, 郑新业, 张莉. 经济发展水平、产业结构与碳排放强度——中国省级面板数据分析[J]. 经济理论与经济管理, 2011(3): 72-81.[YU Yi-hua, ZHENG Xin-ye, ZHANG Li. Carbon dioxide emission and economic development: A panel data analysis. Economic Theory and Business Management, 2011(3): 72-81.]
[15] 孙敬水. 中国碳排放强度驱动因素实证研究[J]. 贵州财经学院学报, 2011(3): 1-6.[SUN Jing-shui. Empirical research on driving factors of carbon emission strength in China. Journal of Guizhou College of Finance and Economics, 2011(3): 1-6.]
[16] 邹秀萍, 陈劭锋, 宁淼, 等. 中国省级区域碳排放影响因素的实证分析[J]. 生态经济, 2009(3): 34-37.[ZOU Xiu-ping, CHEN Shao-feng, NING Miao, et al. An empirical research on the influence factor of carbon emission in Chinese provincial regions. Ecological Economy, 2009(3): 34-37.]
[17] 高彩玲, 高歌, 田彩霞. 河南省能源消费碳排放的因素分解及减排途径[J]. 中国矿业, 2011, 20(3): 46-49.[GAO Cai-ling, GAO Ge, TIAN Cai-xia. Decomposition analysis and reduction approaches of carbon emissions for energy consumption in Henan Province. China Mining Magazine, 2011, 20(3): 46-49.]
[18] 国家发展和改革委员会. 各地区2009年节能目标责任评价考核结果公告.http://www.ah-l-tax.gov.cn/cms/cms/infopub/infopre.jsp?pubtype=D&pubpath=portal&infoid=1276947762437495&templetid=1235589124929931&channelcode=A1228&userId=10002. 2010-06-25.[National Development and Reform Commission. The results of evaluation for provincial energy efficiency goal in 2009. http://www.ah-l-tax.gov.cn/cms/cms/infopub/infopre.jsp?pubtype=[JP2]D&pubpath=portal&infoid=1276947762437495&templetid=1235589124929931&channelcode=A1228&userId=10002. 2010-06-25.]
