论文采用系统动力学的研究方法,运用Vensim软件建立区域耕地压力系统动力学模型,通过仿真技术预测湖北省2000—2020年耕地面积、粮食产量、耕地缺口、耕地压力指数等的变化趋势,并通过设置4种不同情景,模拟仿真湖北省耕地压力指数的变化。得出:①在粮食单产、科技水平受限,总人口、人均粮食消费量不断上升的状态下,湖北省的耕地缺口在未来一段时间将不断加大,耕地压力指数不断增高,耕地安全受到严重威胁;②合理调整耕地保护政策对耕地安全具有积极意义,确保每年耕地增加幅度保持在10%以上、耕地减少幅度控制在10%以内,才能保证湖北省的耕地在未来20 a内保持在安全状态。
Based on the theory of system theory,this paper uses the system dynamics methods and Vensim software to set up the dynamic model of pressure index of regional cultivated land system. It puts up computer simulation technology to forecast the dynamic changes of cultivated area, grain output, farmland gap, pressure index of cultivated land and so on from 2000 to 2020 in Hubei. Then four different scenarios are set to simulate the dynamic changes of pressure index of cultivated land in Hubei Province. Forecast results show that: 1) Due to the limited grain yield and the technology level, the rising of the population and the per capita share of grain consumption, the farmland gap will constantly increase in the future and the pressure index of cultivated land will constantly rise, and the security of cultivated land will suffer serious threats. 2) It has a positive meaning for the security of cultivated land to actively adjust policy of the cultivated land protection. Then the cultivated land will keep in safe condition over the next 20 years if making sure that the new farmland will keep rising by a rate of over 10% and the reduction of farmland will drop at a rate of 10%.
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