EN中文

自然资源学报 >

2012 , Vol. 27 >Issue 4: 650 - 660

DOI: https://doi.org/10.11849/zrzyxb.2012.04.011

资源评价

1959—2008年乌鲁木齐河源1号冰川融水径流变化及其原因

展开
  • 1. 中国科学院 寒区旱区环境与工程研究所冰冻圈科学国家重点实验室/天山冰川站, 兰州 730000;
    2. 西北师范大学 地理与环境科学学院, 兰州 730070
孙美平(1982-),女,辽宁沈阳人,博士研究生,主要从事冰川水文与气候变化方向研究。E-mail:sunmeiping1985@163.com

收稿日期: 2011-06-14

  修回日期: 2012-02-09

  网络出版日期: 2012-04-20

基金资助

全球变化研究国家重大科学研究计划项目(2010CB951401);中国科学院知识创新工程重要方向项目(KZCX2-YW-GJ04);国家重点基础研究发展计划(2010CB951003);西北师范大学青年教师科研能力提升计划项目(NWNU-LKQN-10-35)。

收起

Analysis on Runoff Variation of Glacier No.1 at the Headwaters of the Urumqi River from 1959 to 2008

Expand
  • 1. State Key Laboratory of Cryosphere Sciences, Cold and Arid Regions Environmental and Engineering Research Institute, CAS/Tianshan Glacier Station, Lanzhou 730000, China;
    2. Geography and Environment College of Northwest Normal University, Lanzhou 730070, China

Received date: 2011-06-14

  Revised date: 2012-02-09

  Online published: 2012-04-20

Fold

摘要

采用数理统计、 Morlet小波分析和Mann-Kendall突变检验对乌鲁木齐河源1号冰川1959—2008年径流序列进行分析,揭示了冰川融水径流的变化趋势、 周期特征和突变特性,并对径流与气候、 冰川变化关系进行了探讨。结果表明:乌鲁木齐河源1号冰川近50 a来径流增加趋势显著,特别是在1993年发生突变后,平均径流较1993年前增加了69.4%。径流序列第一主周期为15 a,第二主周期为6 a。在13~16 a时间尺度上看,1号冰川融水径流在未来的几年将继续保持偏多趋势,但是从5~7 a和超长期时间尺度上看则相反。冰川融水径流与冰川物质平衡、 年均气温、 消融期气温及年降水量存在良好的瞬时响应关系,其中消融期气温的振动对冰川融水径流振动能量贡献最大,在气温超过2 ℃时,径流将加速增长。物质平衡变化100 mm可引起河流径流变化22.9×104 m3,1号冰川过去50 a累积物质平衡为-13 693 mm,相当于额外补给河流径流量3 135.7×104 m3,约是年径流量的16.1倍。

关键词： 冰川融水径流; 径流变化; 气候变化; 物质平衡; 1号冰川

本文引用格式

孙美平, 李忠勤, 姚晓军, 张明军 . 1959—2008年乌鲁木齐河源1号冰川融水径流变化及其原因[J]. 自然资源学报, 2012 , 27(4) : 650 -660 . DOI: 10.11849/zrzyxb.2012.04.011

Abstract

Based on multiple methods, such as mathematical statistics, Morlet wavelet analysis and Mann-Kendall method, runoff variation of Glacier No.1 at the headwaters of the Urumqi River during 1959-2008 was analyzed in order to detect its changing trend, periodicity characteristics and mutation features. Then the relationships among runoff, climate and glacier change were also discussed. The results firstly showed that runoff of Urumqi Glacier No.1 experienced an increasing trend in recent 50 years; especially since 1993 the increase was more obvious. Secondly, the first principal periodicity of runoff series was 15 years and the secondary one was 6 years. From 13-16 years scale, the glacier runoff would continue to increase in the future years. However, an opposite tendency existed from another time scales of 5-7 years or more. Thirdly, there was a good instantaneous response relation among glacier runoff, glacier mass balance, annual average temperature, temperature in the melt season and annual precipitation. More specifically, the vibration of temperature in the ablation season gave the greatest contribution to glacier runoff vibration, and glacier runoff showed an accelerated growth when the temperature was more than 2 ℃. It was finally concluded that 100 mm change of glacier mass balance could cause 22.9×104 m3 river runoff. The cumulative mass balance of Glacier No.1 reached up to -13693 mm in the past 50 years, which was equivalent to 3135.7×104 m3 additional supplies of river runoff and was about 1.6 times that of the river annual runoff. This study highlighted the relationships between climate-induced glacier change and runoff yield. The mutation and periodicity of glacier mass balance was also analyzed, so the inherent law of glacier runoff was revealed to some extent.

Key words： glacier runoff; runoff change; climate change; mass balance; Urumqi Glacier No.1

参考文献

[1] 秦大河, 丁永建. 冰冻圈变化及其影响研究——现状、 趋势及关键问题[J]. 气候变化研究进展, 2009, 5(4): 187-195. [2] 李忠勤, 李开明, 王林. 新疆冰川近期变化及其对水资源的影响研究[J]. 第四纪研究, 2010, 30(1): 96-106. [3] Li Z Q, Wang W B, Zhang M J, et al. Observed changes in streamflow at the headwaters of the Urumqi River, eastern Tianshan, Central Asia [J]. Hydrological Processes, 2010, 24: 217-224. [4] Liu S Y, Zhang Y, Zhang Y S, et al. Estimation of glacier runoff and future trends in the Yangtze River source region, China [J]. Journal of Glaciology, 2009, 55: 353-362. [5] 杨针娘. 中国冰川水资源[M]. 兰州: 甘肃科学技术出版社, 1991. [6] Hagg W, Braun L N, Kuhn M, et al. Modelling of hydrological response to climate change in glacierized Central Asian catchments [J]. Journal of Hydrology, 2007, 332: 40-53. [7] 康尔泗, Atsumu Ohmura. 天山冰川消融参数化能量平衡模型[J]. 地理学报, 1994, 49(5): 467-476. [8] 康尔泗, Atsumu Ohmura. 天山冰川作用流域能-水-质平衡和水文流量模型研究[J]. 科学通报, 1993, 38(10): 925-929. [9] Ye B S, Yang D Q, Jiao K Q, et al. The Urumqi River source Glacier No. 1, Tianshan, China: Changes over the past 45 years [J]. Geophysical Research Letters, 2005, 32: L21504. [10] 韩添丁, 丁永建, 焦克勤, 等. 天山乌鲁木齐河源冰雪径流的极值分析[J]. 冰川冻土, 2005, 27(2): 276-281. [11] 天山冰川站. 天山冰川站年报: 18卷. 兰州: 中国科学院天山站, 2008. [12] 李忠勤, 沈永平, 王飞腾, 等. 天山乌鲁木齐河源1号冰川消融对气候变化的响应[J]. 气候变化研究进展, 2007, 3(3): 132-137. [13] 李忠勤, 沈永平, 王飞腾, 等. 冰川消融对气候变化的响应[J]. 冰川冻土, 2007, 29(3): 333-342. [14] 李念杰. 天山乌鲁木齐河源1号冰川区的径流特征[J]. 冰川冻土, 1985, 7(2): 163-169. [15] 李忠勤, 韩添丁, 井哲帆, 等. 乌鲁木齐河源区气候变化和1号冰川40 a观测事实[J].冰川冻土, 2003, 25(2): 117-123. [16] 张金华. 天山乌鲁木齐河源1号冰川物质平衡研究[J]. 冰川冻土, 1981, 3(2): 32-40. [17] 于延胜, 陈兴伟. 水文序列变异的差积曲线－秩检验联合识别法在闽江流域的应用[J]. 资源科学, 2009, 31(10): 1717-1721. [18] 王文圣, 丁晶, 李跃清. 水文小波分析[M]. 北京: 化学工业出版社, 2005. [19] 魏凤英. 现代气候统计诊断与预测技术[M]. 第2版. 北京: 气象出版社, 2007. [20] 刘兆飞, 王翊晨, 姚治君, 等. 太湖流域降水、 气温与径流变化趋势及周期分析[J]. 自然资源学报, 2011, 26(9): 1575-1584. [21] 韩添丁, 丁永建, 焦克勤, 等. 天山乌鲁木齐河源冰雪径流的极值分析[J]. 冰川冻土, 2005, 27(2): 276-281. [22] 焦克勤, 叶柏生, 韩添丁, 等. 天山乌鲁木齐河源1号冰川径流对气候变化的响应分析[J]. 冰川冻土, 2011, 33(3): 606-611. [23] 李慧林, 李忠勤, 沈永平, 等. 冰川动力学模式及其对中国冰川变化预测的适应性[J]. 冰川冻土, 2007, 29(2): 201-208. [24] 王国亚. 冰川物质平衡估算及其方法研究——以天山乌鲁木齐河源1号冰川为例. 北京: 中国科学院研究生院, 2010.
Options
文章导航

/

〈 〉