气候变化与人类活动对水循环及水资源安全的影响是近代水科学面临的主要科学问题。以西辽河支流老哈河流域为研究区,探索了一种水文模型耦合方法(SWAT-WEAP),以水短缺量为指标,同等考虑水资源供给端与需求端,对气候变化与不同人类利用情景下水资源系统脆弱性进行定量分析,结果表明:①暖干化气候情景比暖湿化气候情景明显加剧了老哈河流域水资源系统的脆弱性,降水减少10%导致的水短缺量比降水导致10%所缓解的短缺量要多31.17%;②气候变化对流域农业灌溉用水影响最大,对城乡生活用水和工业用水影响相对很小;③老哈河流域水资源系统脆弱性的主要驱动力之一源自农业不合理灌溉,发展畜牧业、 改变种植结构与高效节水灌溉是缓解水短缺、 降低水资源系统脆弱性最为有效的措施,也是应对气候变化最为有效的方式;④基于供水端的措施(如水库)在暖干化气候时由于水资源供给来源受限,其缓解作用有所减弱。

The impact of climate change and human activities on the water cycle and water security are the new areas of research directions and a topical issue within international hydrological science in the 21st century. Laohahe River Basin (LRB) was selected as the research area. Used the coupling hydrological model method (SWAT-WEAP), the hydrology simulated by the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) was used to drive Water Evaluation and Planning System (WEAP) for simulating water demand and supply under potential future climate change scenarios based on the framework of "climate change-water resources-environment-society and economy". Water vulnerability is the degree to which a water system is susceptible to, or unable to cope with, adverse effects of climate change, including climate variability and extremes. Water vulnerability is a function of the character, magnitude and rate of climate variation to which a water system is exposed, its sensitivity, and its adaptive capacity. The unmet water demand was applied to the vulnerability index (VI) to quantitatively analyze the water vulnerability to the climate and human activities change. The results show that: 1) predicted temperature increase 2 ℃ together with a 10% reduction in precipitation has a disproportionately greater impact on the vulnerability of water resources, that is, warm and dry weather increased significantly the vulnerability of water resources in LRB. 2) The impact of climate change on irrigation water shortage is greater than on domestic and industrial water shortage. 3) The main problem in the area is caused by number of identified water uses in agriculture sector, which is the driving force in the area. Over irrigation is a strong constraint to the integrated water resource management. The main problem is not the shortage of water but the management of the lake. To develop animal husbandry, change planting structure, and increase the efficiency of water-saving irrigation are the most effective measures to adapt to climate change. 4) In most scenarios, warm and dry climate intensifies and aggravates the impact of human activities on water resources vulnerability. Reservoir can effectively reduce the vulnerability of water resources. However, the effectiveness of such conventional supply-oriented measures weakens due to limited water supply source in dry and warm climate. In short, the impact of climate change on water resources not only depends on the river runoff and groundwater recharge volume, changes in the allocation of time, but also depends on the characteristics of the water system, the pressure changes of water system, and what kind of system management and measures are in place to adapt to climate change. Non-climate change factor may have a greater impact than climate change factor on water resources vulnerability.