冬小麦是我国的主要粮食作物之一,在我国粮食生产和粮食安全方面占有重要地位。论文以全国553个气象台站1961—2010年的基本气象资料为基础,根据温度垂直递减规律,将气象站点的最低温度数据处理到海平面水平,而后利用ArcGIS软件,对海平面水平的最低温度数据进行空间插值,得到海平面水平的最低温度空间分布图;再利用全国的DEM数据将插值后的温度数据还原到相应的海拔高度,得到当地的最低温度空间分布图。参考崔读昌提出的我国内地冬小麦种植北界条件,并综合北疆有积雪覆盖区冬小麦安全越冬的判定条件,计算得到全国1961—2010年内不同年代际的冬小麦可种植区概率。利用不同年代际冬小麦可种植区概率分布图,从空间的角度分析了这50 a冬小麦可种植区的扩张状况、可种植概率的变化情况等,为我国的冬小麦种植区的选择提供参考。

Winter wheat is one of the major grain crops in China. It plays an important role in China's grain productivity and food security. In this paper, daily meteorological factors (minimum temperature and snow depth) were collected at 553 weather stations from the year of 1961 to 2010. According to the diminishing law of vertical temperature, minimum temperature in 553 weather stations was disposed to get the value in sea-level for 50 years. The minimum temperature at sea-level was interpolated to get spatial distribution maps by using ArcGIS software. And then, the minimum temperature maps were restored to true value in the appropriate altitude by DEM data. Referring to the northern boundary of winter wheat planting condition inland and Northern Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region, planting probabilities of winter wheat were calculated grid by grid for every decade. Results show that planting areas of winter wheat are expanded toward north and west for the past 50 years. Meanwhile the probabilities of planting are increased for almost each grid. So this study can provide some information for winter wheat planting areas.